Price Trend

According to the data monitored by toodudu (the average ex-factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), on July 31, the domestic mainstream average price of PVC was 6,487 RMB /ton, an increase of 0.97% from 6,425 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week, and a 3.8% increase from the beginning of the month. Compared with the same period last year, it was down 3.78%.

Market Analysis

This week, PVC futures fluctuated strongly, and the spot market pauses its declining trend, rising slightly. Since mid-July, the PVC market has been in a callback phase and rebounded slightly towards the end of the month, boosting market sentiment. At present, the demand in the PVC spot market is flat, and the operating rate of the downstream products industry has declined, about 70%. Demand is reduced, but support is still there. The rainy weather in the south and the impact of public health incidents in some areas have restrained some downstream demands and continue to maintain rigid. The market inquiries are generally hot, and the actual transactions are not high, so this week’s increase is limited. The mainstream prices in various regions mostly rise in the range of 50-100 RMB, and the manufacturer’s production profits are acceptable. At the same time, entering August, the overhaul of PVC enterprises is coming to an end, with the operating rate and output gradually increasing, the enterprises are under pressure to sell goods. There is a risk of price correction, so the market outlook may continue to fluctuate.

In terms of spots, according to the data monitored by toodudu, up to July 31, the mainstream China PVC quotations rang around 6,250-6,650 RMB/ton.

At present, the mainstream of PVC5 calcium carbide in East China is around 6,580-6,650 RMB/ton, the mainstream of PVC5 calcium carbide in Changzhou is around 6,600-6,680 RMB/ton, the range of PVC5 calcium carbide in Hebei is around 6,400-6,500 RMB/ton, and the PVC in Guangzhou is 6,600-6,680 RMB/ton. The price sees a small increase in different districts.

In terms of futures, the opening price of the V2009 contract on Friday is 6605, while the highest price is 6635, the lowest price is 6520, and the closing price is 6610, rising 5 or 0.08%.

The volume is 141,000 lots, a decrease of 65,000 lots. The open interest is 147,000 lots, a decrease of 1,882 lots. The futures market fluctuates at a high level.

Crude oil, on July 31st, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, and the strike price of the main contract was reported at $40.27/barrel, an increase of $0.35. The price of Brent crude oil futures market climbs, and the strike price of the main contract is reported to be 43.52 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.27dollars. Oil prices close slightly higher, mainly due to a record-breaking US production cut in May.

Ethylene, as of the 29th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $795-805/ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closes at $700-710/ton. As for the European ethylene market price, FD Northwest Europe closes at 749-758 dollars/ton, and CIF Northwest Europe closes at 690-698 dollars/ton. The price of ethylene in the United States remains stable, with a price of $339-357/ton, and the overall trend of ethylene is falling. Current crude oil: According to the previous agreement reached by OPEC+, the record-breaking production cut will end in July. If OPEC+ reduces the share of production cuts, this may further break the current oil market balance, and oil prices also have downward risks. Therefore, the data analyst of toodudu predicts that the price of ethylene will fall mainly.

Calcium carbide, in late July, its market fluctuates slightly. The prices of upstream raw materials are consolidating at a low level, which generally supports the price of calcium carbide. Although the downstream PVC market has fallen, the decline is limited. Downstream customers are more enthusiastic about calcium carbide purchases, and the current capacity of calcium carbide is insufficient, so the supply of calcium carbide is tight. The future market outlook predicts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwestern region may rise slightly in late July.

Market Outlook

According to the PVC analyst of toodudu, the current PVC futures are strong but volatile, and the PVC spot market follows to rise slightly. However, the demand is off-season, and the downstream has limited acceptance of high-end PVC. The enthusiasm for chasing the increase is not high, and manufacturers are under pressure and risk of downward adjustment.

And thus, It is expected that the trend of PVC will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact toodudu with tdd-global@toodudu.com.