PVC fell and then rose last week. Due to the rise in futures prices, spot market prices rose over the weekend. According to the monitoring data (average ex-factory price of calcium carbide SG5) of Tuo Duodu, the average price of domestic PVC white liquid on July 3 was RMB 6257.50 per ton, up 0.12% compared with the previous trading day. Down 7.64%. % Compared with the same period last year. The maximum amplitude of 17.09%.

Market analysis

On July 3, the PVC market stopped falling and turned up. With soaring futures prices and a strong market, the PVC spot market also rose. At present, the social inventory continues to fall, some enterprises are still under maintenance, the supply side is still actively supported, enterprises shipments are normal, the confidence of manufacturers' price support has increased, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. Overall, the fundamentals have not changed much, and supply and demand are relatively stable.

According to todudu live data monitoring, as of July 3, the domestic PVC mainstream market price range of about 6100-6350 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of PVC 5-type tourmaline in Changzhou is about 6200-6260 yuan/ton, Hangzhou is about 6300-6380 yuan/ton, and Guangzhou is about 6400-6450 yuan/ton.

Futures, PVC July 2, 2009 contract closed at 6290 yuan / ton, turnover 21474 lots, positions 190668 lots, 14887 lots. The basic spread is-50 yuan,-130 yuan, 9-1 spread of 180 yuan, 15 yuan. July 3, V209 contract opening price of 6275, the highest price of 6380, the lowest price of 6260, closing price of 6335, 115, up 1.85%.

On the supply side, manufacturers started more than 70% last week. Most of the maintenance companies have resumed production and output increased. The number of maintenance companies has decreased since July, and some companies have postponed their maintenance programs to August. Social stocks continue to fall, but at a slower pace. Overall, supply continues to increase and is waning, although there is still good news.

On the demand side, end-use utilization is slightly higher. Manufacturing continues to show signs of recovery so far this year. Overall, the demand side is doing well, but the off-season market is difficult to drive a rapid rise.

Market forecast

PVC analysts said that despite the continued depletion of overall PVC inventories and the reduction in corporate maintenance, the advantage is still evident. On the demand side, although it is the traditional off-season, but the support still exists, the trading situation is improving. The recent trend in PVC has been relatively volatile. Although we expect it to continue to rise, the upside is limited.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact toodududu (tdd-global@toodudu.com).