According to the data monitored by toodudu (the average ex-factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), on November 10, the mainstream average price of domestic PVC was 7,512.5 RMB/ ton, up 1.18% compared with the previous day, 5.92% higher than the beginning of the month, 11.42% higher than the same period last year, and 12.62% higher than the same period last year.

Market Analysis

In November, PVC market continued to improve, the price was significantly higher than the same period last year, and still maintained an upward trend. On November 10, PVC turned red again, and the futures price reached a new high. At present, the supply of PVC in the spot market is still tight, domestic and foreign trade demand is picking up, the price of raw material calcium carbide is rising, and the futures are boosting. Under the multiple favorable conditions, the trend of PVC is stronger, but the downstream resists high prices, so purchase on demand. On the whole, the current supply is less than demand, and favorable factors continue to support the continuous rise of PVC prices. With the production of new production capacity in the future and the resumption of maintenance enterprises in the early stage, the supply and demand side may be corrected. Therefore, the upward space of PVC is limited, and it is expected that the high-level market will be mainly affected.

In terms of spot goods, domestic PVC5 type tourmaline’s mainstream quotation range is 7,300-7,700 RMB/ ton. In East China, the mainstream of PVC5 type tourmaline is around 7,550-7,650 RMB/ ton; in Hebei Province, 7,380-7,420 RMB/ ton; the price of Inner Mongolia is increased to 7,160-7,200 RMB/ ton, including tax; the price of Hangzhou is 7,520-7,700 RMB/ ton; the price of Changzhou is 7,580-7,680 RMB/ ton, the price in Guangzhou is 7,500-7,620 RMB/ ton, and the quotation of various places is rising.

In terms of futures, the futures price of PVC futures has risen sharply and reached a new high recently. On November 10, the main contract 2101 of PVC futures opened at 7,350 RMB/ ton and closed at 7,050 RMB/ ton. In November, the settlement price was 7,220 RMB/ ton, down 2.35%. The trading range was 7,030-7,375 RMB/ ton, with 373,395 transactions and 284,541 positions.

Market Forecast

toodudu PVC analysts believe that the current futures price is rising, the spot market is following the rise, while the social inventory is still at a low level, the spot shortage situation is difficult to change in a short time, the merchants have strong willingness to support the price, and all the favorable factors are not reduced, which support the continuous rise of PVC price. However, downstream resistance to high prices, purchasing enthusiasm declined, China PVC price trend is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, mainly high consolidation.

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