1. Price Trend

This week (November 18 to 22) polyethylene showed a mild decline. Among them, the average price of LDPE 2426H in East China monitored by Rabbit Doodle was about RMB 8,175 per ton. HDPE 5000S average price is about 7983.33 yuan / ton. The average price of LLDPE 7042 was RMB 7,350/mt. As of November 22, LLDPE prices in East China showed a stable trend this week, and LDPE and HDPE prices also decreased slightly this week.

The overall polyethylene market in East China fell this week, up 50-100 yuan per ton. Linear futures were hit hard earlier this week. International oil prices fell and then rebounded, which supported the market to some extent. However, last week, price pressure continued to ease as petrochemical companies accumulated some stocks and increased supply. Market cost support weakened. Entrepreneurs closely monitor the market situation to conduct business. Downstream players purchased according to their specific needs. Overall market sentiment was relatively light. Market supply pressure eased later in the week as petrochemical inventories continued to fall. In addition, the national PE market sentiment improved slightly due to the rise in linear futures. Prices of local major sellers were basically stable, and franchisees were actively quoting. Current downstream orders will be held for the time being as required. It will take time to digest the market growth.

2. Market Analysis

Upstream: This week, international crude oil prices rose, and the price of petroleum-based polyethylene rose with the continued rise in crude oil prices. On Monday (November 18), WTI December futures settled at $57.05/bbl, down $0.67/bbl from the previous session, trading in the range of $56.55~58.09/bbl. January Brent crude oil futures settled at $62.44/bbl, down $0.86/bbl from the previous session, trading in a range of $61.94/bbl to $63.57/bbl. On Friday (Nov. 22), January 2020 WTI crude oil futures settled at $57.77/b, down $0.81/b from the previous session, in a trading range of $57.50-$58.74/b. January 2020 futures settled at $63.39/bbl, down $0.58/bbl from the previous session, trading in the range of $62.98/bbl-$64.27/bbl.

Manufacturers' news: PE downstream agro-film manufacturers' stocks were low this week. Limited demand for cellulose prevented manufacturers from entering the market. On-demand orders were maintained for the time being with weaker trading preference. Some areas are still affected by strict environmental protection inspections, with fewer orders from companies and production restrictions.

Futures Trend: Resor moved higher this week. According to todudu data, November 22, polyethylene futures L2001 main contract opened at 7195. the highest price of 7240, the lowest price of 7.155, closing price of 7170, before the settlement price of 7130, the settlement price of 7195, up 40, or 0.56%, turnover of 390870, the volume of 47128 , the date of the position of the-36612. (Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Import and export situation: In September 2019, PE imports were about 13.402 million tons. Among them, LLDPE imports in September 2019 reached 402,000 tons, HDPE imports reached 634,400 tons, and PE exports reached 17,200 tons.

3. Market forecast.

According to Toodudu analysts, the current rebound in international oil prices has spurred the market. Linear futures have risen marginally and spot market inquiries have increased. Market sentiment has improved. Petrochemical inventories continue to fall and some manufacturers' equipment is still under maintenance, easing some supply pressure. However, some petrochemical companies reduced their ex-works prices, weakening the support for market costs. Narrow fluctuations are expected in the short term.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact toodududu (tdd-global@toodudu.com).