DUBAI: A global ratings agency has said that crude oil prices could return to marginal costs in 2015, when annual crude oil supply will reach around $800 per barrel.

Even at $80, key metrics will be weaker than previously expected, but the impact on credit ratings will depend on the ability and willingness of companies to respond by cutting capital expenditures, operating costs and dividends, or increasing production, Wheelock Ratings said.

In a statement, Wheelock Ratings said, “Our approach to oil and gas companies is to evaluate them over the full cycle, and we are unlikely to take negative rating actions.” But that doesn’t mean the current price decline to around $600 won’t result in a rating downgrade. That’s because companies with negative outlooks include Total (AA), ENI (A ) and BG Energy Holdings (A-). Further underperformance is unlikely at current prices.

“We will closely monitor the performance of Total and BG’s ability to increase production. For ENI, the ability to turn around the downstream, gas and power sectors is key.

“We recently downgraded the price to reach 2015 YTD from $97 to $80 The dollar seems very optimistic considering the current situation, but we see a return to $80% next year.”

The company is cutting its development budget. The key question is how long it will take to lead to reduced supply and higher prices.

Huiyu’s report, Forecasts for the New Pricing Platform for Oil and Gas in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, is the first assessment of the oil and gas industry in Europe, the Middle East and Africa under the new pricing platform.

He added: “Our forecasts do not fully reflect companies’ capex, opex and shareholder compensation plans, which are often not announced to the market or even agreed internally.”