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Specialty chemicals price trend in Sept 21: ICICI Securities

  40
 June 13, 2024

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Contrary to market expectations, ICICI Securities believes that technical textiles (NTCF) are at risk of widening spreads in the coming quarters due to a sharp fall in import prices and a three-fold increase in imports year-on-year. R-22 prices stabilized at Rs 192 with lower fluorite prices. Packaging Films (BOPET, BOPP) Margins have been stable to slightly lower considering SRF margins are expected to narrow in the coming months considering SRF margins are contracting in Q2 2022. Lauryl Alcohol prices have risen sharply, with LAB prices rising at a lower rate than last year, but are catching up quickly. Prices of Rosari Bio's main feedstock are still at high levels, despite a sharp rise and stabilization. Pigment prices have also risen but remain below input inflation, compressing Sudarshann's margins in Q2 FY2022. EPL will benefit from polymer price adjustments over the next few quarters, which also increased slightly in the second quarter of fiscal 2022.

(Note: All prices are in rupees per kilogram)

SRF Ltd: Margins on technical textiles may come under pressure

1. R-22 prices declined by 1.6% (4.1%) YoY to Rs 192% in FY20222. Fluorite (acid crystalline stone) prices increased by 1.9% YoY and declined by 12.4% YoY to Rs. R-22 spread (fluorite and chloroform) at Rs. 87 against Rs. 107 in Q1 2022. Diffusion should be slightly lower due to reverse blending of chloroform in SRF. In September 2021, R-price was Rs 193, up 2.9% YoY. R-22 exports in Q2 2022 declined 34% YoY to 3.22 yr kte.

2, MDC (Methylene Chloride) prices were recorded at Rs 53, up 14.4% YoY and 59.8% YoY, while methanol and chlorine prices also rose sharply. Despite this, our analysis suggests that SRF's MDC spreads/margins will improve sequentially.

Three. In FY2022 FY2, NTCF prices declined 25.7% YoY and 46.2% YoY to Rs 99%. Caprolactam prices reached KRW 1.0 million, up 11.4% YoY and 103.6% Y-o-Y. NTCF-lactam spread declined to minus Rs. 644 as compared to minus Rs. 13 in Q1 FY2022. NTCF imports tripled (79% YoY) to 23,000 units as compared to the same period last year. This runs counter to market expectations of SRF's high profitability in the technical textiles segment (we are concerned that the sharp increase in imports will limit the pricing power/margins of domestic NTCF manufacturers).

4. BOPET prices rose 1.7% YoY/ 14.0% YoY to Rs 135%. PTA prices rose 5.3% YoY/72.9% YoY to Rs 57% and MEG prices rose 1.2% YoY/70.2% YoY to Rs 49%. BOPET-PTA/MEG declined 0.5% YoY/ 13.4% YoY to Rs 70% (Rs 70 in Q1 FY2022). However, YoY, 20211, September spreads increased by 4.3% to Rs 71 crore.

5. BOPP prices declined by 3.5% YoY/37.6% YoY to Rs 172%, while Polypropylene (PP) prices declined by 4.5% YoY/49.1% YoY to Rs 97%. The BOPP-PP spread stood at Rs 76, down 2.2% MoM and up 25.3% YoY. On September 21, the spread was only Rs 67.

Navin Fluoride (NFIL): rising investment costs hurt NFIL profits

R-Prices fell 1.6% YoY but rose 4.1% YoY to Rs 192. Fluorspar (acid crystalline stone) prices were up 1.9% YoY and down 12.4% YoY to Rs. R-22 spread (fluorite and chloroform) at Rs. 87 against Rs. 107 in Q1 2022. NFIL chloroform price increase will be negatively impacted.20222 Consistent with management's comments on rising investment costs and stabilizing gas benchmark margins during the Q2 FY2012 financial reporting conference call.

Chemplast Sanmar: Paste PVC exit prices significantly higher and exit prices significantly higher S-PVC exit prices lower

1, PVC paste prices were recorded at Rs 119, up 5.0% MoM and 7.8% YoY. Chemplast's acquisition of PVC Paste EDC for Rs 5.3 billion was up 1.9% YoY and 234.3% YoY. Quarterly EDC spread for PVC Paste in Q2 FY2022 stood at Rs 32 as compared to Rs 28 in Q1 FY2022. Paste PVC prices were at Rs 136 in September 2021, up 30.3% YoY.

2, Polyvinyl Chloride (S-PVC) prices were recorded at Rs 98, down 0.4% YoY and 65.2% YoY. VCM prices fell 17.1% YoY and rose 57.3% YoY to Rs 82%. The S-PVC VCM spread for Q2 FY2022 stood at Rs 16 as compared to Rs 0 in Q1 FY2021.

Three. MDC (Methylene Chloride) prices rose by 14.4% YoY and 59.8% YoY to Rs 53, while methanol and chlorine prices also rose sharply. Chemplast uses its own chlorine, so MDC prices are higher than SRF in Cheplast's favor.

4. Caustic soda prices rose 14.6% YoY and 29.6% YoY to Rs 30% (Rs 26 in Q1 2022) and 9.7% YoY to Rs 33% in September 2021.

Sudarshan Chemical (SCIL): up 14.2% YoY with strong organic pigments.

1. Organic pigments prices rose by 1.5% YoY and 14.2% YoY to Rs 558% in Q2 as compared to Rs 550 in Q1 2022. Organic pigments include all colors including CPC. Exports reached 32,000 units in Q2 2022, up 14.2% YoY.

2. Azo pigment blends prices increased by 7.0% YoY and 10.9% YoY to Rs. 463% in Q1 FY2022 as compared to Rs. 433 in Q1 FY2022.

3. Inorganic pigment prices recorded Rs 104 (down 0.2% YoY while 105% Rs 0.2% YoY and up 12.3% YoY) in Q1 FY2022 104.

Galaxy Surfactants (GSL): lauryl alcohol prices stable in September 2021

1. lauryl alcohol prices increased by 2.5% YoY and 74.4% YoY to Rs. 160 compared to Rs. 156 in Q1 2022. September 2021 at Rs. 157.

2. LAB (Straight Chain Alkyl Benzene) increased by 11.3% YoY and 56.9% YoY to Rs 128%. Clearly, the price increase in petroleum based surfactants has caught up with the price increase in petrochemical surfactants in the last few quarters.

Rossari Biotech: Investment Material Prices Stabilizing at Higher Levels Rossari uses four key raw materials: surfactants, acetic acid, acrylic acid and silicone oil.

1, lauryl alcohol surfactant main raw material prices at Rs 160, up 2.5% sequentially and 74.4% year-on-year, and Rs 156 in the first quarter of fiscal 2022.

2. Acetic acid prices increased by 7.3%/223.7% YoY to Rs. 78 in Q2 FY2022 (Rs. 72 in Q1 FY2022). In September 2021, prices were at Rs 69, down 15.3% YoY. This means that inflation in this product segment has started declining.

Three. Acrylic prices rose 10.8% YoY and 74.1% YoY to Rs 125 (Rs 113 in Q1 2022). In September 2021, acrylic prices were at Rs 128, up 3.0% YoY.

4. Silicone oil prices rose 4.7% YoY and 35.4% YoY to Rs. 301 in Q2 FY2022 (Rs. 288 in Q1 FY2022 and Rs. 298 in September 2021).

EPL Ltd: Polymer prices fall/p LLDPE, the main raw material for laminates, was priced at Rs 86, down 6.1% YoY but up 36.2% YoY from Rs 91 in Q1 FY2022 and Rs 86. September 2021 .

Vinati Organics.

1. prices of Ibuprofen declined by 7.9% YoY and 56.1% YoY to Rs. 1,144 (Rs. 1,241 in Q1 FY22).

2. IBB prices increased by 8.2% YoY (20.0% YoY) to Rs. 162 in Q1 FY22 as compared to Rs. 150 in Q1 FY22.

Atul Ltd

1. 2,4-D price was 1 million won, up 11.0% YoY and 39.2% YOY.

2. 2,Cresol price was at Rs 185, up 5.3% YoY and 8.0% on-year.

3, Epoxy Resin prices were recorded at Rs 346, down 2.7% YoY and up 121.9% YoY.

4, Resorcinol prices rose 18.5% YoY and 15.6% YoY to Rs 788.

Gujarat Fluorochemicals.

1. PTFE prices rose by 6.1% YoY and 14.0% YoY to Rs. 779 (Rs. 734 in Q1 FY2022).

2. PTFE (Fluorite) spreads increased by 6.5% YoY and 17.4% YoY to Rs. 710% (Rs. 666 in Q1 FY2022).

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