Specialty chemicals price trend in Oct 21
R-22 prices rose to Rs 214 (11.6% YoY). SRF spreads are expected to rise further in Q3 FY2022. Navin Fluorine/GFL margins are expected to rise further due to lower chloroform prices. For packaging films, BOPET spreads have increased, while for BOPP, spreads have declined. Due to price volatility, we do not believe that the trend for packaging films is representative of the entire quarter, so we will have to wait for data from the next two months before drawing any conclusions.
NTCF imports continue to increase and are likely to remain high due to higher prices from domestic manufacturers, so long-term margins for technical textiles may not remain at current levels. Prices of lauryl alcohol have remained stable over the last two quarters and although LAB prices have declined slightly quarter-on-quarter, they have now caught up with year-on-year LA inflation levels. Rosari Acetic acid and Biotech prices, the raw material for surfactants, were down quarter-on-quarter, but acrylics and silicones continue to rise sharply. While pigment prices have risen (which is good for Soudal Chemical), it remains to be seen how much of an impact higher raw material prices will have. The Premier League will continue to be challenged by rising polymer prices. Gujarat Fluorochemicals will benefit from increased production and realization of PTFE.
(Note: All prices are in Rs/kg. 2022 Data from Q3 to TD is as of October 2021.)
StrongSRF Ltd: R-22 prices are highly volatile due to RM inflation.
In Q3 2022, R-22 prices increased by 11.6% YoY (36.8% YoY) Rs. Fluorite (acid crystal) prices rose by 0.6% YoY and declined by 9.2% YoY to Rs. 27%. R-22 price spread (fluorite and chloroform) stood at Rs. 117 as compared to Rs. 87 in Q2 FY2022. On October 21, R-prices rose by 11.2% YoY. Methylene dichloride (MDC) prices were down 3.1% YoY and up 56.9% YoY, leading to a marginal increase in methanol prices and an increase in chlorine prices. Our analysis suggests that SRF's MDC spread/margin should be slightly lower. As of Q3 2022, NTCF prices are up 21.4% YoY and down 15.3% YoY to Rs 121%.
Caprolactam prices declined 2.0% YoY and 93.7% YoY to Rs 160. The NTCF-lactam spread stood at minus Rs 39 as against minus Rs 64 in Q2 FY2022. Notably, NTCF imports have increased significantly over the last 6 years, with imports increasing significantly by an average of over 6,000 units per month, 7,00,000 units per month compared to 2,000 units per month in the previous 10 months. BOPET prices rose 8.2% YoY and 31.9% YoY to Rs 147%. PTA prices were up 6.4%/71.9% YoY to Rs 60% and MEG prices were up 13.5%/66.6% YoY to Rs 56%. BOPET-PTA/MEG rose 8.2% YoY and 8.8% YoY to Rs 76% (Rs 70 in Q2 FY2022). However, on a monthly basis, the October 21 spread rose 7.1% to Rs 76. BOPP prices rose 1.9% YoY/26.8% Y-o-Y to Rs 176%, while polypropylene (PP) prices rose 11.6% YoY/57.6% Y-o-Y to Rs 108%. The BOPP-PP spread declined 10.4% YoY and 3.3% YoY to Rs 68. Navin Fluorine (NFIL): R-22 Spreads Improve
R-prices rose 11.6% YoY and 36.8% YoY to Rs 214. Fluorite (acid crystal) prices rose 0.6% YoY and fell 9.2% YoY to Rs 27%. R-22 spread (Fluorspar and Chloroform) stood at Rs. 117 as compared to Rs. 87 in Q2 FY2022. NFIL will be positively impacted by lower chloroform prices.
Chemplast Sanmar: Lower spreads on PVC
PVC Paste prices rose 0.5% YoY and 9.0% YoY to Rs 120. Chemplast acquired PVC Paste EDC, which rose 11.1% YoY/ 121.6% YoY to Rs 59%. Paste PVC EDC spreads were at Rs 23 in Q3-FY2022-TD as against Rs 32 in Q2-FY2022. Suspended Polyvinyl Chloride (S-PVC) prices rose 4.3% YoY and 48.4% YoY to Rs 103%. VCM prices rose 20.3% YoY/41.3% Rs. 98% on a proportionate basis. The spread between S-PVC and VCM at-TD was Rs. 4 in Q3 FY2022 as compared to Rs. 16 in Q2 FY2022. Methylene Chloride (MDC) prices declined by 3.1% YoY and increased by 56.9% YoY, leading to a marginal increase in methanol prices and an increase in chlorine prices. Chemplast uses its own chlorine, so lower MDC Higher methanol prices reduced Chemplast's spread. Caustic soda prices increased by 57.4% YoY and 109.4% YoY to Rs. 48% (Rs. 30% in FY2 FY2022). Sudarshan Chemical (SCIL): organic pigments achieve 16.9% YoY growth.
Organic pigments prices increased by 1.7% YoY and 16.9% YoY to Rs. 568% in Q3 FY2022 as compared to Rs. 558 in Q2 FY2020. Organic pigments include all colors including CPC. Q3FY22-TD exports were down 17.3% YoY at 11.7kte. Azo pigment blends prices declined by 1.0% YoY but rose by 17.7% YoY to Rs. 459% as compared to Rs. 463 in Q2FY2022. Inorganic pigments prices increased by 15.0% YoY and 25.7% YoY to Rs. 120% as compared to Rs. 104 in FY2022. Galaxy Surfactants (GSL): lauryl alcohol prices stable
Lauryl Alcohol prices declined by 2.5% YoY and rose by 68.8% YoY to Rs. 156% as compared to Rs. 160 in FY2022FY2.LAB (straight chain alkyl benzene) prices at Rs. 125 declined by 1.8% YoY and rose by 63.4% YoY. Petroleum based surfactants have caught up with LAB in terms of CAGR. Rosari Biotech: Raw material prices continue to rise. Rosari has four main raw materials: surfactants, acetic acid, acrylic acid and silicone oil. Lauryl alcohol is the key basic raw material for production. Surfactant prices at Rs. 156 declined by 2.5% YoY and increased by 68.8% YoY as compared to Rs. 160 in Q2 FY2022. TD Acetic Acid prices declined by 15.2% YoY/ 143.9% YoY to Rs. 66% in Q3 FY2022 (Rs. 78 in Q2 FY22). In October 2021, prices declined by 5.1% YoY to Rs 66, indicating a slowdown in inflation in Q3FY22. Acrylic prices rose 19.5% YoY and 101.7% YoY to Rs. 149% (Rs. 1,255) in the same period last year). In October 2021, acrylic prices were at Rs. 149, up 16.5% YoY. Q3 FY2022-TD Silicon Oil prices rose 21.1% YoY and 71.8% YoY to Rs 365% (Rs 301 in Q2 FY2022). EPL Ltd : Monthly polymer price hike in October FY21
LLDPE (main raw material for laminates) prices rose 9.7% YoY and 42.2% YoY to Rs 94% as against Rs 86 in Q2 FY2022. October 2021 prices were up 8.2% YoY. Vinati Organics
Ibuprofen prices rose 6.9% YoY but fell 37.6% YoY to Rs 123 (Rs 1,1444 in Q2 FY2022). IBB prices declined 0.1% YoY (34.0%) to Rs 162%. Atul Ltd.
2,4-D prices rose 9.5% YoY and 52.4% to Rs 236.-Cresol prices were at Rs 210, up 13.7% MoM and 47.7% YoY. Epoxy resin prices were at Rs 351, up 1.3% q-o-q and 92.7% y-o-y. Resorcinol prices were at Rs 632, down 19.7% YoY and down 1.6% on-year. Gujarat Fluorochemicals /strong
PTFE prices rose by 6.6% YoY and 21.4% YoY to Rs 830% (Rs 779 in FY20222). PTFE (as compared to Fluorite) spread widened by 7.1% YoY and increased by 25.3% YoY to Rs. 761% (Rs. 710 in Q2 FY2022). R-prices rose 11.6% YoY and 36.8% YoY to Rs 214. Fluorite (acid crystal) prices rose 0.6% YoY and declined 9.2% YoY to Rs 27%. R-22 spread (Fluorite and Chloroform) was Rs. 117 as compared to Rs. 87 in Q2 FY2022. GFL will be positively impacted by lower chloroform prices. Caustic soda prices rose 57.4% YoY and 109.4% YoY to Rs. 48% (Rs. 30% in FY2022 Q2).
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