Price trend

According to the data monitored by toodudu, the price of PVC fell sharply within 7 days. The average domestic price of PVC on June 20 was 8,385 RMB/ton, and the average price on June 27 was 7,472.5 RMB/ton. The price fell by 10.88% within 7 days.

Analysis review

Recently, the domestic spot market of PVC continued to decline, and the futures price fell for 13 consecutive working days, suppressing the sentiment of the spot market. At present, the confidence in the PVC spot market is still insufficient. Downstream enterprises and traders have a strong wait-and-see mood, and they are cautious in purchasing goods, and their willingness to purchase is not strong. The PVC spot market is not good for shipments. As of the 27th, the price range of domestic PVC5 calcium carbide materials was mostly around 7,050-7,800 RMB/ton. Among them, the quotations in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang were higher, around 7,700-7,800 RMB/ton.

International crude oil, on June 27, international crude oil futures prices rose. The settlement price of the main U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract was 109.57 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.95 US dollars or 1.81%; the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 110.98 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.88 US dollars or 1.72%. The market was mainly affected by expectations of tighter supply.

Ethylene, international, on June 27, the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted at 981 US dollars / ton; CFR Southeast Asia quoted at 1,101 US dollars / ton. On June 27, the U.S. ethylene market was 572 US dollars / ton. Recently, the U.S. ethylene market was stable and the demand was general. As of the 27th, the domestic ethylene market price was around 7,900 RMB/ton. The atmosphere of manufacturers’ shipments was light, and the main force remained cautious in offering.

In terms of calcium carbide, as of the 27th, the average ex-factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers was 3,833.33 RMB/ton. The price of raw material semi-coke fell slightly, and the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, but the downstream PVC market fell slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and the driving force for calcium carbide to rise was insufficient. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate downward within a narrow range in early July.

Market outlook

The PVC analyst of toodudu believes that PVC is currently in the off-season, domestic demand is weak, and market transactions are not good. The accumulated inventory is obvious, the market confidence is insufficient, the downstream is cautious in taking goods, and the operating rate is not high. It is expected that the PVC market will be weak and stable in the short term.

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