1. Price Trends

This week's polyethylene market trend is complex (11.25-11.29). LDPE in East China Average price of about 8125 yuan / ton, 2426H, HDPE 5000S average price of about 7169.67 yuan / ton, the average price of LLDPE 7042 is about 7416.67 yuan / ton. As of November 29, LLDPE prices in East China showed a steady upward trend this week, while LDPE and HDPE prices both showed a slight decline.

At the end of November, LLDPE prices in East China declined slightly. Overall PE market demand improved, and futures prices rose slightly, as did prices. Linear futures fluctuated at the beginning of the week, and the ex-factory prices of petrochemical products were basically stable. However, traders still took a wait-and-see attitude and adjusted prices mainly according to the supply situation. Downstream enterprises supplemented supply on demand and low-cost trading improved. Straight pipe was partially raised by RMB 50/ton, and high and low pressure was partially lowered by RMB 50-100/ton. Linear futures opened lower and shook next week, and international oil prices fell. This dampened market sentiment to a certain extent. Merchants were cautious and prices were slightly adjusted. The enthusiasm to enter the downstream market weakened. In addition, most factories are withdrawing and adopting a wait-and-see attitude, except for some factories that are restocking as needed. The market functioned as a whole. Most petrochemical ex-factory prices remained stable, providing support for market costs. Linear narrow band adjustment was the main trend, and high and low pressure continued to decline.

2 Market Analysis

Upstream: This week, international oil prices rose and then fell, showing a narrow range of adjustment. On Monday (November 25), January 2020 WTI crude oil futures settled at $58.01/bbl, up $0.24/bbl from the previous session, trading in the range of $57.21 to $58.15/bbl. Brent crude oil futures for January 2020 settled at $63.65/bbl, up $0.26/bbl from the previous session, trading in a range of $62.97 to $63.80/bbl. As of Thursday, Nov. 28, January 2020 WTI crude oil futures traded in an electronic range of $57.64 to $58.30/bbl, after settling at $58.11/bbl. On the London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil trading, January 2020 Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.87 per barrel, down $0.19 from the previous session, in a trading range of $63.19 to $64.00 Per barrel.

Manufacturers' News: PE downstream agro-film start rate dropped this week, leading to a decline in orders. Buying on demand is a major factor. According to the supply of resources, the market price has been level finishing.

Futures Trend: This week, the PER trend was upward. Todudu data show that on November 29, polyethylene futures main L2001 contract opening price of 7225, the highest price of 7310, the lowest price of 7210, the closing price of 7305, the former settlement price of 7205, the settlement price of 7205. increased by 100 hands, to 7, 265 hands, turnover of 407, 470 hands, the position volume of 438, 324 hands, the daily increase in the position of 7, 630 hands. (Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Import and export situation: In October 2019, PE imports were about 136,500 tons. Among them, LLDPE imported 425,200 tons, HDPE imported 643,000 tons, LDPE imported 268,300 tons. In October 2019, PE exports totaled 28,200 tons. Among them, PE exports were 8,500 tons, HDPE exports were 16,300 tons, and LLDPE exports were 33,400 tons.

3 Market Forecast

Toodudu analysts believe that the current trend in the futures market is relatively strong, which is related to the stabilization of petrochemical ex-factory prices at the end of the month, which will boost the futures market. It has provided some support to the market in the short term. However, there is no good news at the macro level, and the contradiction between supply and demand still exists. Reduce the number of machines after maintenance. It is expected that the industry operating rate will increase, the supply side pressure will increase, and the price rebound will be inhibited.

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