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The Pressure from Supply Increases, Chinese Market of Polyethylene Can’t Rise Anymore

  42
 June 2, 2024

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At the end of July, the polyethylene market did not show an upward trend. On the contrary, we can see that LLDPE, LDPE and HDPE have declined to different degrees in East China. According to Todudu monitoring data, the three types of PE fell between 50 yuan and 450 yuan per ton. lDPE transparency is particularly high, during the period (7.16-27) fell 3.18%.

In the second half of July, the PE market was mainly on a downward trend. Due to the resumption of installations of Sinopec, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation and other companies, the resumption rate is recovering, and the market supply has increased accordingly. However, the resumption rate was low as the downstream enterprises are currently in the off-season and affected by social and public health issues. As a result, demand is unsatisfactory and the market is not very active. Most of the demand is tight, orders are low and supply is relatively sufficient. Dalian LLDPE spot prices have fallen sharply, affecting futures attitude. Most traders have lowered their ex-works prices, but polyethylene is still weak. The attitude of traders is not very good and most of them still hold bearish attitude.

On the supply side, the pressure will increase in a week (July 17-24). The resumption rate of PE companies has also increased by more than 3%. Compared with last month, production increased by 14,000 tons and maintenance decreased by 21,200 tons. On the demand side, downstream polyethylene agricultural film reopening rate increased by 0.3% from last week, reaching 18.1% this week. Stretch film reopening rates fell slightly, ranging from 0.1% to 67.1%.

For futures, plastics prices will rise going forward due to supply pressures in the plastics market. The spot market pulled back as macroeconomic sentiment impacted record highs. Last Monday (July 20), the major plastics contracts rose 0.21%, and then continued to fall for the next four days. As of last Friday (July 24) close, a week has fallen 145%.

Currently, weak futures are affecting the behavior of the spot market. Supply will increase in the near future as the maintenance of petrochemical companies' equipment is gradually completed. In addition, downstream demand is average and imports are low. Overall, the market will improve in the short term, but the possibility of decline is also a concern.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact toodududu at tdd-global@toodudu.com.

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