Positive Factors Leads to an Increase in China PE Prices
According to the monitoring of Todudu Bulk Products Market Analysis System, the domestic LLDPE (7042) price was RMB 8,210 per ton on April 1, and the average price was RMB 8,378 per ton on April 23, up 2.05% year-on-year.
According to Rabbit Doodle bulk product market analysis system monitoring, April 1 domestic LDPE (2426H) price of 9250 yuan / ton, April 23 average price of 9470 yuan / ton, up 2.38%.
According to the monitoring of Todudu Bulk Products Market Analysis System, the domestic HDPE (5000S) price was RMB 8,475 per ton on April 1, and the average price was RMB 8,507 per ton on April 23, up 0.38% year-on-year.
The polyethylene market was relatively strong in April, with LLDPE (7042) and LDPE (2426H) prices continuing to rise, and HDPE (5000S) prices rising slightly. Key factors include the start of spring maintenance, centralized maintenance of petrochemical plants, expected reduction in polyethylene supply, and increased downstream demand in April. Due to the volatility of the polyethylene futures market, the trend is relatively strong, and the combination of positive factors has led to a sustained rise in the polyethylene market.
Cost: Influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply shortages in the Middle East, crude oil prices rose sharply in early April and fluctuated at high levels in mid-April. On the cost side, there are clear reasons to support polyethylene.
On the supply side, with the approach of the April spring routine maintenance, petrochemical companies polyethylene units have been shut down for maintenance. Maintenance losses are expected to increase by 32.83% to 420,000 tons in April compared to the previous month. Inventories are expected to decrease due to the contraction on the supply side. The market is in a good mindset, with producers and traders continuing to increase prices and the center of gravity of spot commodities continuing to rise. According to statistics, as of April 17, polyethylene enterprises' work rate was 77.07%, the lowest in the past five years. Some of the parking enterprises include Zhejiang Petrochemical, Lianyungang Petrochemical, Zhongyuan Petrochemical, Fushun Petrochemical and so on.
Demand: After the Qingming Festival, downstream factories will replenish inventory appropriately to improve production. Polyethylene market marketing and good profits. Although polyethylene entered a relative peak season in April, agricultural film consumption slowed down with the end of the peak season. Consumer expectations for packaging film remained strong. In addition, the Labor Day holiday increased downstream inventory levels, boosting the polyethylene market. As polyethylene prices continued to rise, buyers' willingness to purchase higher-priced products became more apparent as the end of the month approached, and downstream plants became more cautious in their purchases. Overall, demand remained acceptable despite the support of polyethylene.
Futures: Since April, polyethylene futures have mainly oscillated, driving up polyethylene spot prices.
On the cost side, oil prices are more likely to fluctuate at higher levels. Supply side: supply side is expected to decline as spring testing of polyethylene approaches in the second quarter. Demand side: support for polyethylene from agricultural films is weakening. The outlook for packaging film demand is positive, with downstream plants starting up and the weather gradually warming up. Demand for frozen food packaging and fresh packaging film is also expected to improve. In addition, downstream end-use restocking demand increased during the May Day holiday. On the technical front, polyethylene prices are likely to rise and equipment is undergoing intensive maintenance. Polyethylene is expected to see strong volatility in the near term.
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