October 10th Macroeconomic Index: China's Housing Loan Rates to Drop, Impacting Banks' Net Interest Margins
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Domestic News
1. Brokerages are cautiously optimistic about the market outlook and are optimistic about growth and dividends in the fourth quarter
2. China calls on all parties in Libya to build more consensus for the early resumption of political negotiations
3. The interest rate of the existing housing loan is about to be lowered, and the pressure on the net interest margin of banks has attracted attention
4. Real estate companies in many places have piled up promotions, and some real estate companies in third- and fourth-tier cities have launched homecoming promotions
5. This year's express delivery business revenue exceeded one trillion Yuan one and a half month ahead of schedule
International News
1. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25BP in November is 70.4%, and the probability of not cutting interest rates rises to 29.6%
2. The Israeli army demanded the evacuation of some residents in the southern suburbs of Beirut in Lebanon
3. "Milton" is approaching Florida, United States, which will be hit by the second strong hurricane in two weeks
4. US media: United States officials believe that Israel accepts the argument of striking Iran's conventional military targets
5. The Germany government lowered its economic growth forecast
Domestic News
1. Brokerages are cautiously optimistic about the market outlook and are optimistic about growth and dividends in the fourth quarter
The reporter combed through the fourth-quarter strategic outlook released by a number of brokerages and found that after the fluctuated adjustment in the first three quarters and the recent short-term rush, he is cautiously optimistic about the overall market outlook of A-shares, believing that in the context of monetary easing, promising real estate and recovered confidence, A-shares are likely to continue to repair the market but the pace will slow down, and the highly anticipated fiscal policy is also expected to further increase. For the allocation in the fourth quarter, the dumbbell strategy has become a more consistent consensus among brokers, that is, to grasp the growth and high dividend targets at the same time; The investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market have also been favored by brokers, and they are also optimistic about growth and high-dividend sectors in terms of allocation.
2. China calls on all parties in Libya to build more consensus for the early resumption of political negotiations
Dai Bing, deputy permanent representative of China to the United Nations, said in his speech at the Security Council open meeting on Libya on the 9th that China calls on all parties in Libya to continue to adhere to the general direction of political settlement, strengthen dialogue and consultation, and build more consensus for the early resumption of political negotiations and the establishment of unified state institutions.
3. The interest rate of the existing housing loan is about to be lowered, and the pressure on the net interest margin of banks has attracted attention
The interest rate of the existing mortgage is about to be lowered. Up to now, a number of banks have announced that they plan to issue specific operating rules for the adjustment of the interest rate of the stock mortgage on October 12, and complete the batch adjustment of the interest rate of the stock mortgage by October 31. Industry participates believe that the adjustment of the interest rate of the existing housing loan is conducive to reducing the interest expense of the borrower's housing loan, thereby enhancing the consumption and investment capacity of residents. However, this has also raised concerns about further pressure on banks' net interest margins. According to expert analysis, reducing the interest rate of existing housing loans will have a negative impact on the yield of bank loan business. However, considering that deposit rates may be lowered simultaneously, the negative impact on the net interest margin of the banking sector is generally controllable.
4. Real estate companies in many places have piled up promotions, and some real estate companies in third- and fourth-tier cities have launched homecoming promotions
During the National Day holiday, the reporter visited the property market in many places and found that real estate companies combined with favorable policies and actively launched various promotional activities to boost market sentiment. Real estate companies in some third- and fourth-tier cities such as Shangrao in Jiangxi, Ji'an, and Hengyang in Hunan have also launched promotional activities to urge talents to return to their hometowns and provide subsidies for transportation expenses and discounts for home buyers.
5. This year's express delivery business revenue exceeded one trillion Yuan one and a half month ahead of schedule
Recently, with the arrival of a number of holidays, express delivery companies have also ushered in the traditional industry peak season. According to the data, as of the end of September, the national express business revenue has exceeded 1 trillion yuan. Since it exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the first time in 2021, China's annual express business revenue has maintained a rapid growth trend, and the time to exceed one trillion yuan has been shortened year by year, nearly one and a half months earlier than last year. With the approach of a number of e-commerce platform promotion activities, express delivery companies have begun to step up their talent reserves to cope with the peak of express mail. The relevant person in charge of an express delivery company said that the business volume of "Double Eleven" is expected to increase by at least 300%, and all employees have been mobilized for recruitment.
International News
1. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25BP in November is 70.4%, and the probability of not cutting interest rates rises to 29.6%
According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points by November is 70.4%, and the probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged is 29.6%. The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 65.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 8.7%; The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is 0%.
2. The Israeli army demanded the evacuation of some residents in the southern suburbs of Beirut in Lebanon
In the early morning of the 10th local time, the Israel Defense Forces issued a new emergency warning to residents in the southern suburbs of Beirut in Lebanon, requiring residents of a building and its surroundings in the Haret Hreik area to evacuate immediately and stay away from a distance of at least 500 meters. The Israeli army said it would soon take action against that target.
3. "Milton" is approaching Florida, United States, which will be hit by the second strong hurricane in two weeks
On the 9th local time, the National Hurricane Center of United States said that Hurricane "Milton" weakened into a category 4 hurricane when approaching the Florida peninsula. The day before, Milton had been upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane. "Milton" is expected to make landfall in the densely populated Tampa Bay area of Florida from the evening of the 9th to the early morning of the 10th local time. The United States Department of Health and Human Services declared a public health emergency in Florida on the 8th. This is the second time in the past two weeks that Florida has declared a public health emergency due to hurricane weather.
4. US media: United States officials believe that Israel accepts the argument of striking Iran's conventional military targets
United States President Joe Biden and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held talks on Wednesday, ABC News reported. Vice President Kamala Harris also participated in the call. According to a United States official with knowledge of the call, much of the call was spent discussing Israel's plans to retaliate against Iran, but Israel also discussed to some extent about Lebanon's future actions by Hezbollah. Israel is currently weighing up its response to Iran's missile strike last week, and United States officials familiar with the call said that while Netanyahu has not put forward a fully finalized action plan for a counterattack, members of the Biden administration remain relatively satisfied with the level of detail shared by the two sides and believe that the Israel government accepts their argument that it insists on hitting conventional military targets rather than nuclear facilities or oil production sites.
5. The Germany government lowered its economic growth forecast
On the 9th local time, Germany's Vice Chancellor and Minister of Economy Robert·Habeck said that the federal government expects Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) to fall by 0.2% this year. In the spring, the federal government of Germany had expected the country's GDP to grow slightly by 0.3 percent this year. Habeck said the current economic situation is not satisfactory, but Germany is trying to get out of it. Germany has made progress in addressing short-term factors that drag on economic output, such as high inflation, high interest rates, and high energy costs, but long-term structural problems such as severe shortages of skilled workers and under-investment in infrastructure have hampered the country's economic growth.
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