Natural rubber futures rebounded in a narrow range after bottoming out and reached a new low

After experiencing a one-month horizontal pattern, the natural rubber futures fell again under pressure last week (March 6). The RU2305 contract broke through the 12000 yuan/ton threshold and hit a new low in a row. The lowest price fell to 11785 on March 13. With the closing of some short positions and the closing of positions, the Shanghai rubber market rebounded in a narrow range after the bottom. On March 14, the mainstream value of RU2305 contract vibrated in a narrow range around the 11950-12000 range, and the market closed at 11955, which was flat compared with the previous trading day.

A few days ago, it was in the low production season of natural rubber all over the world. The output of glue was small, and the value of raw material acquisition was strong; Downstream tire enterprises have higher operating load of devices, and the value of natural rubber continues to be lower than the price of synthetic rubber, which is conducive to the purchase conditions of natural rubber for tire factories; Many domestic departments and various sub-governments and auto enterprises have announced auto promotion and subsidy policies to benefit the end market and lay a foundation for the rubber market. However, the foreign macro atmosphere is relatively empty, and the continuous overview of export orders still needs attention. The inflection point of natural rubber destocking in the country has not yet emerged, and a new round of rubber cutting cycle will be opened from late March. The natural rubber market lacks effective and favorable driving force, and the short-term market will still be weak, so it is not ruled out that the possibility of further lowering will be explored.

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