The Import and Export of Carbon Black Maintained a YOY Increase in November(December 24, 2024)

1. Data interpretation

According to Customs, China imported 26,100 tons of carbon black in November 2024, an increase of 15.65% year-on-year and 2.14% month-on-month; From January to November 2024, China's cumulative carbon black imports totaled 278,600 tons, an increase of 11.51% over the same period last year. The top three regions in terms of carbon black imports in November 2024 were: Russia, Belgium, and South Korea, accounting for 72%, 8% and 5% of the total imports respectively.

According to customs data, China's carbon black exports in November 2024 were about 92,800 tons, an increase of 47.80% year-on-year and 7.62% month-on-month. From January to November 2024, China's carbon black exports totaled 857,100 tons, an increase of 31.47% over the same period last year. Among them, the top three regions in terms of carbon black export volume in November 2024 were: Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, accounting for 31%, 20% and 10% of the total export volume respectively.

2. Influencing factors

Judging from the import and export of rubber carbon black in November, the import volume has maintained an upward trend for two consecutive months. In terms of imports, in the fourth quarter, the domestic temperature dropped, the winter stocking demand of domestic downstream enterprises remained high, and the purchasing sentiment of enterprises was more positive, which to a certain extent drove the import volume of carbon black to begin to show a slight upward trend, on the other hand, the price advantage of foreign imported carbon black began to show signs of weakening, and under multiple stimuli, the import volume of carbon black continued to rise for two consecutive months.

In terms of exports, the export of carbon black in 2024 was higher than last year, and since September, due to the high domestic carbon black price, the foreign downstream demand side has limited acceptance of high prices, and the export situation has declined. The domestic carbon black export began to stop falling and rebound for two consecutive months from October to November, the main reason was that the domestic carbon black price advantage was obvious, and the demand of foreign enterprises was not weak, driving the carbon black export volume to continue to improve.

From the perspective of net imports, China's net export of carbon black was 66,700 tons, +9.88% month-on-month, the main reason for which was that the domestic carbon black price has shown a narrow downward trend, and the foreign carbon black price advantage has also begun to show signs of weakening, and the domestic price advantage has begun to be obvious with large demand by foreign downstream enterprises, which in turn has driven the net export volume of carbon black to maintain an increasing trend.

3. Forecast for the future market

It is expected that in December, China's import and export volume of rubber carbon black will continue to rise. In terms of the current domestic production and sales situation, the domestic high-end field carbon black production is still relatively low, but the market still has a gap in its high-end supply demand, to a certain extent, driving the downstream demand for enterprises to purchase imported carbon black, on the other hand, the downstream winter reserve demand still exists, and domestic enterprises are expected to increase the demand for foreign carbon black. In terms of exports, the domestic price of carbon black is low, and there is an advantage in price. And under the stimulus of price, foreign companies will further increase the demand for domestic carbon black. On the whole, the import and export volume of rubber carbon black in December will still maintain a relatively strong year-on-year growth rate.