Caustic soda: The liquid caustic soda market is stable with a decline, the flake caustic soda remains relatively stable, and the market shows a "four consecutive increases"(December 24, 2024)

Analysis of caustic soda futures: On December 24, the opening price of the SH2505 contract: 2730, the highest price: 2782, the lowest price: 2726, the position: 103524, the settlement price: 2764, the settlement price yesterday was 2733, the increase: 31, the closing price: 2772, the daily trading volume: 157429 lots, the deposited funds: 1.377 billion, the capital inflow: 275 million.

Caustic soda market price:

Caustic soda spot analysis: Today, the caustic soda market is mainly in a narrow range, the liquid caustic soda market is stable with a decline, and the flake caustic soda market price remains relatively stable. From the perspective of regional market price adjustments, the price of 32% ion membrane caustic soda in some areas has been reduced by 13-100 yuan/ton, the low-end price of 50% ion membrane caustic soda in some areas has been reduced by 20 yuan/ton, the market price of 99% flake caustic soda has remained stable, and the price ranges of other concentrations of caustic soda have not seen significant changes. Specifically, the market price of liquid caustic soda has been stable with a slight decline, and the price of liquid caustic soda purchased by Shandong's main alumina has continued to decline, which has a certain negative impact on the overall market atmosphere. In addition, the enthusiasm of downstream companies in the region to receive goods is not high, and some companies in the region have lowered their quotations, and some manufacturers in surrounding areas have followed the decline and consolidation; 50% caustic soda rose today and then fell back, with a significant increase from last Friday to the beginning of this week, but downstream companies cautiously waited and watched the market; today's flake caustic soda market price remained stable, the overall wait-and-see sentiment in the market remained unchanged, and the market transaction was tepid; the ex-factory prices of mainstream manufacturers in Shandong and Qinghai remained stable, and most of the northwest regions have not yet released new prices, and the market performance in various regions is relatively cautious.

Analysis of caustic soda futures: The night trading price of caustic soda SH2505 contract fluctuated upward and then maintained a small fluctuation, and continued to rise in the late trading; the futures price fell slightly in the morning, then fluctuated upward, pulled up to the intraday high and then fell slightly; the market fluctuated downward in the afternoon and then rebounded slightly. As of today's afternoon closing, the SH2505 contract fluctuated between 2726 and 2782 throughout the day, with a spread of 56, and the 05 contract increased its position by 19,635 lots, and the current position was 103,524 lots.

Analysis of caustic soda index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic caustic soda index was 3046.87 on December 24, down 6.06, a range of 0.199%, and the domestic caustic soda index fell.

Forecast of caustic soda market outlook:
Spot: At present, the liquid caustic soda market is running steadily with a downward trend. The 50% caustic soda rose and then fell, and there was no obvious change in the other concentration caustic soda intervals. The supply in the market remains relatively sufficient, but the enthusiasm of downstream companies to receive goods is poor. Under the rigid demand consumption, some chlor-alkali enterprises still have inventory pressure. In addition, the purchase price of alumina in Shandong continues to decline. The trading atmosphere in the market continues to be weak. The market center of gravity in Shandong continues to fall. Under its influence, the surrounding areas are mainly weak. It is expected that the market price of liquid caustic soda will continue to fluctuate in a weak position in the short term. The flake caustic soda market remains relatively stable. The new order quotations of mainstream factories in Shandong and Qinghai remain stable this week. Most factories in the northwest have not yet announced the latest quotations. The demand side is stable, but the inventory and delivery in some areas are tight, which has certain positive support for the market price. It is expected that the market price of flake caustic soda will be mainly in a narrow range in the short term, with limited fluctuations. Pay attention to the price adjustment in the northwest region this week and the transaction situation in various regions.