December 10 Macroeconomic Index:Coking coal price fluctuations and the Politburo meeting emphasized proactive fiscal and monetary policies
Latest Global Major Index
International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend
Domestic News
1. Coking coal continued last week's decline, pay attention to the landing of the meeting!
2. Meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: It is necessary to strengthen the management of expectations and improve the overall effectiveness of policies
3. Collecting Opinions and Suggestions on Economic Work. The CPC Central Committee convened a forum for non-party personages
4. Meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: It is necessary to implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen unconventional counter-cyclical adjustment
5. Meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: This year's economic operation is generally stable and progressive
International News
1. The rate of natural gas extraction by underground gas storage facilities in Europe hit its lowest level in recent years in early December
2. The 6th Joint Committee Meeting of the China-Korea Free Trade Agreement was held in Seoul, South Korea
3. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5% but cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points to 4%
4. South Korea's KOSPI index closed down 2.8%, having fallen for four consecutive sessions
5. The rise in the U.S. unemployment rate is enough for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp next week
Domestic News
1. Coking coal continued last week's decline, pay attention to the landing of the meeting!
On Monday, coking coal led the decline in the black series, with prices hitting a two-month low. At present, the terminal demand is in the seasonal off-season, steel prices fluctuate and fall, the profit of steel mills is poor, the pace of replenishment slows down, the operating rate of blast furnaces of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.15%, and the output of molten iron decreased by 12,600 tons/day, and the spot demand for coke weakened slightly, and at the same time, the fourth round of coke was lowered, and the coke wet quenching fell by 50 yuan/ton and the coke dry quenching fell by 55 yuan/ton, which was implemented from 0:00 on December 9. The production and supply of domestic coal mines continued to increase, with the output of raw coal from 523 sample coal mines increasing by 27,800 tons, and the output of refined coal increasing by 14,400 tons to 810,800 tons/day. In terms of imports, the customs clearance volume of coking coal in Mongolia remained at a high level, and the overall supply of coking coal became more relaxed. Therefore, the reduction of coke by steel mills is more borne by coking coal, and it is expected that there will still be 1-2 rounds of steel mill reduction, and coking coal may still be driven by decline. However, from the perspective of downside, Mongolian coal has fallen below the long-term price in the fourth quarter, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has declined. At the same time, this week's important meeting will be held, the pattern of weak reality and strong expectations may intensify the market long and short game, if the policy exceeds expectations, coking coal may be expected to achieve price stabilization under macro disturbances.
2. Meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: It is necessary to strengthen the management of expectations and improve the overall effectiveness of policies
The meeting stressed the need to strengthen the party's leadership over economic work and ensure that the decisions and arrangements of the party Central Committee are implemented. It is necessary to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of all quarters and mobilize the endogenous motivation of cadres and officials to start a business. It is necessary to adhere to the principle of seeking truth and pragmatism, coordinate development and security, enhance coordination and linkage, strengthen expectation management, and improve the overall effectiveness of policies. It is necessary to do a good job in ensuring people's livelihood and ensuring security and stability to ensure the overall stability of society. (Xinhua News Agency)
3. Collecting Opinions and Suggestions on Economic Work. The CPC Central Committee convened a forum for non-party personages
On 6 December, the CPC Central Committee held a forum in Zhongnanhai to listen to the opinions and suggestions of responsible persons of the central committees of various democratic parties, the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, and representatives of personages without party affiliation on this year's economic situation and next year's economic work. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, presided over the symposium and delivered an important speech, emphasizing that next year is the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", and it is necessary to adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, implement the new development concept completely, accurately and comprehensively, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, solidly promote high-quality development, further deepen reform in an all-round way, expand high-level opening up, build a modern industrial system, better coordinate development and security, implement more active and promising macro policies, expand domestic demand, and promote the integrated development of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation. Stabilize the property market and stock market, prevent and resolve risks in the key areas and external shocks, stabilize expectations, stimulate vitality, promote the sustained economic recovery, continuously improve people's livelihood, maintain social harmony and stability, and complete the goals and tasks of the "14th Five-Year Plan" in a high quality manner, laying a solid foundation for the good start of the "15th Five-Year Plan". (Xinhua News Agency)
4. Meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: It is necessary to implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen unconventional counter-cyclical adjustment
The meeting pointed out that next year, we should adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, keeping integrity and innovation, establishing first and then making breakthroughs, system integration, coordination and cooperation, implementing more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, enriching and improving the policy toolbox, strengthening unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments, playing a good policy "combination punch", and improving the forward-looking, targeted and effective macroeconomic regulation and control. (Xinhua News Agency)
5. Meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: This year's economic operation is generally stable and progressive
The meeting believed that this year is a key year to achieve the goals and tasks of the "14th Five-Year Plan", and the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi as the core has united and led the whole Party and the people of all ethnic groups in the country to respond calmly and comprehensively to achieve stable and progressive economic operation, economic strength, scientific and technological strength, and comprehensive national strength. The new quality productive forces have developed steadily, reform and opening up have continued to deepen, risks in key areas have been resolved in an orderly and effective manner, people's livelihood has been guaranteed in a solid and effective manner, and the main goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year will be successfully completed. (Xinhua News Agency)
International News
1. The rate of natural gas extraction by underground gas storage facilities in Europe hit its lowest level in recent years in early December
Despite an increase in gas extraction at underground gas storage (UGS) facilities in European countries in early December, the current extraction rate is the lowest in the past few years and this month, according to data provided by the European Gas Infrastructure (GIE), mainly due to relatively warm weather. Europe's heating season began on October 29, 2024, 10 days earlier than the previous autumn and winter. Since then, EU countries have extracted more than 15.5 billion cubic meters of gas from underground gas storage facilities. In December, the share of wind power in the EU's electricity production rose to 20%. In November, liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from terminals to Europe's gas transmission system reached their lowest level for the month since 2021. Currently, the liquefied gas re-gasification facility and its further delivery into the European pipeline are only 41% of their capacity.
2. The 6th Joint Committee Meeting of the China-Korea Free Trade Agreement was held in Seoul, South Korea
On December 9, the sixth meeting of the Joint Committee of the China-South Korea Free Trade Agreement was held in Seoul, South Korea. Wang Shouwen, International Trade Negotiator and Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce, and Jung In-kyo, Director of the Trade Negotiation Headquarters of the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy of the Republic of Korea, co-chaired the meeting. The two sides positively appraised the effectiveness of the implementation of the China-ROK FTA in the past year, jointly reviewed the implementation of trade in goods, economic cooperation, technical trade barriers and other areas under the agreement, and exchanged views on customs clearance facilitation of cross-border e-commerce goods, standard technical regulations and conformity assessment procedures, inspection and quarantine of agricultural products, government procurement and other issues. The research institutions of the two countries also reported the results of joint research on strengthening the implementation and cooperation of the China-ROK FTA, and put forward relevant opinions and suggestions. (Ministry of Commerce)
3. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5% but cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points to 4%
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5% but cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points to 4% to boost economic liquidity. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will cut its economic growth forecast for FY2025 to 6.6% from its previous forecast of 7.2%. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) allows banks to offer higher interest rates to non-resident Indians to attract foreign capital inflows.
4. South Korea's KOSPI index closed down 2.8%, having fallen for four consecutive sessions
South Korea's KOSPI closed down 2.8% at 2,360.58, the fourth straight session of decline. Ongoing political instability weighed on investor sentiment, with retail investors remaining net sellers. Over the weekend, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol narrowly avoided impeachment after imposing martial law briefly. However, mounting pressure for his resignation has prompted opposition parties to pledge to continue their efforts to remove him from power. Samsung Electronics shares fell 1.3%; Shares of missile maker LIG Nex1 plunged 9.4%, leading the losses in defense stocks. USD/KRW rose 1.3% to settle at 1,437.00 won in onshore trading in Seoul, with the yield on 10-year government bonds edging down 0.5 basis points to 2.739%.
5. The rise in the U.S. unemployment rate is enough for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp next week
The rise in the US unemployment rate should be enough to cement the case for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed next week. U.S. non-farm payrolls came in at 227,000 in November, higher than analysts in the Wall Street Journal poll expected 214,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% reported on Friday. If Fed policymakers are concerned about Trump's impediment to inflation coming back down early in his presidency, or potential upside inflation, they may be able to skip the January rate hike.
Domestic Macro Economy Index
