December 6 Macroeconomic Index:China has strengthened food and energy security, and the international financial market has shown signs of recovery.
Latest Global Major Index
International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend
Domestic News
1. China National Grain Reserves Group Corporation will continue to increase the scale of domestic corn storage in major corn producing areas such as Northeast China
2. Shenyang has issued a policy that methanol vehicles enjoy the same right of road as new energy vehicles
3. National Development and Reform Commission: It is necessary to conscientiously do a good job in the signing and performance of medium and long-term thermal coal contracts in 2025
4. The state has strengthened the introduction of a package of incremental policies to increase the demand for coal consumption
5. When the United States imposes heavier chip sanctions, China's semiconductor exports will exceed one trillion
International News
1. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said economic growth is stronger than expected when the Fed cut interest rates for the first time in September
2. Federal Reserve Beige Book: Economic activity in most parts of the United States has risen slightly in recent times
3. BlackRock's outlook for 2025: The AI boom continues to boost U.S. stocks. The Federal Reserve is not expected to be able to bring interest rates below 4%.
4. The PMI of U.S. services expanded moderately, slowing down but remaining positive
5. European hedge funds generally posted positive returns last month, benefiting from the rally in U.S. stocks
Domestic News
1. China National Grain Reserves Group Corporation will continue to increase the scale of domestic corn storage in major corn producing areas such as Northeast China
China Grain Reserves Group Corporation issued an announcement that, in accordance with the work arrangements of relevant departments, China Grain Reserves Group Corporation and its affiliated related enterprises will continue to increase the scale of domestic corn production in 2024 in the northeast and other major corn producing areas in the near future, and actively enter the market to carry out purchases.
2. Shenyang has issued a policy that methanol vehicles enjoy the same right of road as new energy vehicles
On December 5, Li Shengzhi, Director of the Shenyang Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology, interpreted in detail the policy of "Several Measures to Accelerate the Production and Promotion and Application of Methanol Vehicles in Shenyang" at the Alcohol and Hydrogen Electric Industry Conference. He said that the introduction of the "Measures" aims to promote the development of the methanol automobile industry, build the whole industry chain, and help Shenyang become the "first city of methanol vehicles". At present, the first methanol filling station in Shenyang has been renovated, and the number will reach more than 40 by 2026. (Silver Persimmon Finance)
3. National Development and Reform Commission: It is necessary to conscientiously do a good job in the signing and performance of medium and long-term thermal coal contracts in 2025
The 2024 Coal Economy Operation Analysis Symposium was held in Rizhao. Tang Zhen, Deputy Director of the Economic Operation and Adjustment Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that promoting Chinese-style modernization and the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development has put forward higher requirements for the high-quality development of the coal industry. It is necessary to conscientiously do a good job in the signing and performance of medium and long-term thermal coal contracts in 2025, strengthen the connection of resources, improve the quality of contracts, strictly perform contracts, and promote a better combination of the number and quality of contracts, effective markets and promising governments, government supervision and integrity and self-discipline. It is necessary to strengthen the clean and efficient use of coal, adhere to the problem-oriented, strengthen standard constraints, strengthen policy support, pay attention to coordinated advancement, and strive to build a clean and efficient coal utilization system that is compatible with ecological priority, conservation and intensive, and green and low-carbon development. (China National Coal Association)
4. The state has strengthened the introduction of a package of incremental policies to increase the demand for coal consumption
The 2024 Coal Economy Operation Analysis Symposium was held in Rizhao. Zhang Hong, a Member of the Party Committee of the China Coal Industry Association, pointed out that in 2024, affected by the superposition of multiple factors, the oversupply of the coal market will be obvious, and enterprises in the upstream and downstream industries of coal will conscientiously implement the national energy supply and demand policies and measures, and realize the orderly supply and demand of the market and the stable operation of the economy. The state has strengthened the launch of a package of incremental policies to promote the continuous stabilization and recovery of the macro economy in 2025, stimulate the increase in coal consumption demand, and stabilize production and supply. Coal enterprises should implement the responsibility of ensuring coal supply, promote the coordinated development of the coal industry chain and supply chain, and ensure the safe and stable supply of coal across the country. Do a good job in signing the annual long-term contract for thermal coal in 2025; Promote the coordinated development of the coal industry chain and supply chain, and strive to build a unified national coal market; study the establishment of coal production capacity elasticity and coal mine flexible production mechanism to maintain the balance of market supply and demand; This paper studies the cascade development, cascade utilization mechanism and related policies and measures of coal resources in China. (China National Coal Association)
5. When the United States imposes heavier chip sanctions, China's semiconductor exports will exceed one trillion
On December 2, local time, the Biden administration introduced new export control measures for semiconductors to China. The final plan, involving 136 Chinese entities and 4 overseas subsidiaries of Chinese entities, was also mainly focused on some areas, mainly for chips used in advanced artificial intelligence, and the control targets were mainly for the manufacturing equipment enterprises of such chips. At the same time, another trend was also worth our attention: from January to October this year, China's semiconductor exports reached 931.17 billion yuan, an increase of 21.4%, and the average monthly export was about 93 billion yuan. Judging from the data of the past three years, the fourth quarter of each year is still the peak season for China's semiconductor exports. According to this trend, by November this year, China's chip exports would exceed one trillion. (Sun, Moon and Tan Tian)
International News
1. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said economic growth is stronger than expected when the Fed cut interest rates for the first time in September
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that economic growth is stronger than expected when the Fed first cut rates in September, inflation has risen slightly, and the Fed can be more cautious in cutting rates when looking for a neutral rate level; It is too early to judge the impact of policies such as Trump's tariffs on the outlook for the economy and interest rates; And ruled out the possibility of a so-called "shadow Fed chairman" after Trump took office.
2. Federal Reserve Beige Book: Economic activity in most parts of the United States has risen slightly in recent times
In its last regional economic review of the year, the Federal Reserve said that economic activity in most parts of the United States has risen slightly in recent weeks. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book survey showed that while the economy improved slightly in the October-mid-November reporting period, growth expectations also improved in most regions and most industries in the United States. In the labor market, employment levels are flat or slightly higher in most parts of the United States, with few companies increasing headcount but employee turnover remains low. Wage growth slowed to more modest levels in most regions. The report offers some clearer caveats. Many consumer-facing businesses say consumers are becoming more price-sensitive. The weakness in the housing market is reflected in lower spending on household goods and weak demand for mortgages. On the other hand, the Fed said that the construction of data centers in the technology sector has driven strong demand for electricity, and tourism has also seen strong growth in some regions. Overall, prices rose modestly in most regions as central banks continued to control inflation. Some regions reported a decline in raw material and other non-labor input costs.
3. BlackRock's outlook for 2025: The AI boom continues to boost U.S. stocks. The Federal Reserve is not expected to be able to bring interest rates below 4%.
BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, expects the AI boom to continue to boost U.S. stocks and support broader economic growth next year, although rising U.S. debt levels could threaten its optimistic forecast for 2025. The agency said that the innovation of artificial intelligence technology may benefit US stocks more than European stocks. The agency said that while U.S. economic growth may cool slightly next year, the Fed is likely not to be able to cut interest rates sharply because inflation remains sticky and above the central bank's target. The agency does not expect interest rates to fall below 4% from the current 4.5%-4.75%. Continued price pressures due to factors such as geopolitical fragmentation and infrastructure spending could weigh on bond markets.
4. The PMI of U.S. services expanded moderately, slowing down but remaining positive
Steve Miller, Chairman of the ISM Services Survey Committee, said that the US services PMI was 52.1 in November, 3.9 lower than 56 in October, and the index was in expansion territory for the ninth time this year. The index of business activity came in at 53.7 in November, 3.5 lower than 57.2 in October, the fifth month of expansion after the contraction in June. The employment index entered expansion territory for the fourth time in five months, at 51.5. The decline in the services PMI in November was driven by declines in four directly affected sub-items (business activity, new orders, employment and supplier delivery index). However, business activity increased in 14 industries and new orders increased in 13 industries. This reinforces the view over the past few months that the services sector has returned to sustained growth.
5. European hedge funds generally posted positive returns last month, benefiting from the rally in U.S. stocks
Global equity and currency markets helped European hedge funds deliver positive returns last month, buoyed by a sharp rally triggered by Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election and the Republican victory in the congressional reelection. The report quoted news that the Metori Epsilon Multi-Fund under Metori Capital Management, which is located in Paris, returned 4.6% in a single month, and the cumulative return this year has risen to 13.4%. British hedge fund Marshall Wace's Eureka fund posted a return of 2.8%, with a year-to-date return of 14.5%. The hedge fund's Market Neutral Tops fund returned 1.75% last month and 21.49% for the year. Winton Capital Multi-Strategy Fund returned 0.3%, with a year-to-date return of 8.8%. Among Capital Fund Management's funds, the CFM Stratus fund returned just over 8%, and the hedge fund IS Trends returned 18.88%. The report also quoted a report released by JPMorgan's major brokerage firm as saying that global hedge funds returned 1.4% last month. Benefiting from investments in North American equities, global equity trading hedge funds all recorded returns of about 2%.
Domestic Macro Economy Index
