December 5 Macroeconomic Index:The steady expansion of the domestic service industry coexists with fluctuations in the energy market, and the impact of international trade and climate factors intensifies
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International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend
Domestic News
1. Caixin China's services PMI fell to 51.5 in November
2. A new round of oil price adjustment is stranded, and oil prices will not be adjusted in this round
3. Coking coal continues to fall, be wary of macro disturbances!
4. Shanghai: Further strengthen the pilot work of training skilled talents in key industries
5. Shenzhen's first mobile energy storage alternative diesel generator demonstration project landed in Bao'an
International News
1. The United States made a preliminary anti-dumping ruling on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells
2. Malaysia's palm oil production is under pressure from excessive rainfalls and floods
3. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index fell for the fifth consecutive day due to a decline in freight rates for larger vessels
4. South Korea's parliament voted to lift martial law and the authorities vowed to stabilize the market
5. Thailand's palm oil production declined due to heavy rains and seasonal cuts
Domestic News
1. Caixin China's services PMI fell to 51.5 in November
In November, the prosperity of the service industry continued to be in the expansion range, but it fell from the previous month. The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Services PMI) released on December 4 recorded 51.5 in November, down 0.5 percentage points from October and still above the critical point, indicating a slight slowdown in the expansion of business activities in the service sector. (Caixin)
2. A new round of oil price adjustment is stranded, and oil prices will not be adjusted in this round
It was learned from the National Development and Reform Commission that a new round of refined oil price adjustment window was opened at 24 o'clock on December 4. According to the monitoring of the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission, during the current round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (November 20 to December 3), international oil prices fluctuated slightly. According to the current domestic refined oil price mechanism, the price adjustment amount is less than 50 yuan per ton, and the gasoline and diesel prices will not be adjusted, and the unadjusted amount will be included in the next price adjustment when accumulating or offsetting. (CCTV Finance)
3. Coking coal continues to fall, be wary of macro disturbances!
Recently, the internal trend of ferrous metals has diverged, with iron ore performing strongly due to the declined delivered goods at ports, and bifocals falling all the way in the context of loose supply. On Wednesday, the decline of coking coal and coke further widened, falling more than 3% in the day. At the industrial level, as the temperature drops, the demand for finished products weakens seasonally, especially in the northern market, which weakens significantly, and inventories continue to accumulate. At the same time, the profits of steel mills have declined, the enthusiasm for production has weakened, the recent increase in steel mill maintenance, and the sentiment towards upstream raw material procurement has declined. At present, the profits of coking enterprises are near break-even, the operating rate has not changed much in the short term, coking coal raw materials are mainly purchased at low prices, the operation strategy of low inventory is maintained, and the negative feedback of terminal demand to the upstream is transmitted layer by layer. On the supply side, most of the coal mines in the producing areas are in normal production, the supply of coking coal is loose, traders have a strong wait-and-see mood, some coal mines have accumulated inventory, and the transaction price of online auctions is lower, and it is expected that there is still room below. At the macro level, the market is expected to hold the Central Economic Work Conference next week, and the policy game for the real estate industry still exists.
4. Shanghai: Further strengthen the pilot work of training skilled talents in key industries
Seven Departments, including the Shanghai Municipal Human Resources and Social Security Bureau, issued a notice on further strengthening the pilot work of training skilled talents in key industries in the city. It is mentioned that for workers who have obtained the vocational skill level certificates of the three leading industries of integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence, as well as the elderly care and domestic service industries, which are included in the city's urgently needed occupations (types of work) catalog, the subsidy standard for vocational skill improvement will be increased by 30%.
5. Shenzhen's first mobile energy storage alternative diesel generator demonstration project landed in Bao'an
Replace diesel generators in the early stage of construction, reduce high-frequency noise and pollutant emissions from generators, and create a green construction site; In the middle and later stages of construction, the power box in the construction area is used to "shave the peak and fill the valley" to support the grid-connected operation and provide power guarantee for the operation of the work area. Recently, Shenzhen's first mobile energy storage alternative diesel generator demonstration project landed in Bao'an. The project is located in Shenzhen Rail Transit Line 20 Civil Engineering Area No. 5 (Xixiang Park Station), the trial operation of the mobile energy storage vehicle is a 20-foot semi-trailer bearing mode of energy storage power supply, the system is equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, BMS battery management system, energy storage PCS, EMS energy management system, support different power flexible expansion, replace diesel generator power supply, can meet the site construction electricity, temporary electricity, emergency power supply, uninterruptible power supply and other on-site requirements. (CNR)
International News
1. The United States made a preliminary anti-dumping ruling on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells
According to the China Trade Remedy Information Network, on November 29, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued an announcement to make a preliminary anti-dumping ruling on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam (whether assembled into modules or not), and preliminarily ruled that the dumping margin of Cambodian producers/exporters was 125.37% (the margin rate after offsetting subsidies was 117.12%), and the dumping margin of Malaysian producers/exporters was 0.00%-81.24% (the margin rate after offsetting subsidies was 0.00%- 81.24%), with dumping margins of 77.85%-154.68% for Thai producers/exporters (margin ratio not applicable to subsidies - 57.66%), and dumping margins for Vietnamese producers/exporters ranging from 53.30% to 271.28% (margin margin rates after offsetting subsidies of 53.19%-271.28%). On April 18, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to make a final anti-dumping ruling on the products in question imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.
2. Malaysia's palm oil production is under pressure from excessive rainfalls and floods
According to foreign media reports, Malaysia's palm oil production estimate for 2024/25 was slightly lowered to 19.4 million tons due to excessive rainfall and flooding, 1% lower than the previous season. Unfavourable weather conditions and low seasonal yields during the northeast monsoon season affected palm oil production. The weather was relatively dry at the beginning of November, and heavy rains ushered in the second half of the month. Given the relatively dry weather in early November, the overall impact on the oil palm crop is likely to be neutral or favorable. However, damage to local infrastructure and hacienda roads severely disrupted harvesting. Looking ahead, rainfall in the first half of December is likely to remain heavy, especially in the northern part of Peninsular Malaysia, which could still pose a high flood risk. In contrast, the southern and eastern Malaysians of Peninsular Malaysia are expected to experience safer weather with near- or below-normal rainfall during this period.
3. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index fell for the fifth consecutive day due to a decline in freight rates for larger vessels
The Baltic Dry Bulk Index slipped for a fifth straight day on Tuesday to a 12-month low as freight rates for larger vessels fell. The Baltic Dry Index fell 61 points to 1,237, its lowest level since September 2023. The capesize freight index slipped 181 points to 1,792, hitting its lowest level since Oct. 28. The average daily profit of capesize vessels fell by $1,500 to $14,863. The Panamax freight index fell 4 points to 1,005, the 13th consecutive day of decline, hitting a 16-month low. The average daily profit of Panamax ships fell by $37 to $9,042. The Supramax bulk carrier freight index was flat at 979 points. The handysize freight index fell 4 points from the previous day to 653 points.
4. South Korea's parliament voted to lift martial law and the authorities vowed to stabilize the market
After South Korea's President cordoned off the area, South Korean Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok said on Wednesday that the government would take all possible measures to stabilize financial markets if necessary. Choi Sang-mok said at the emergency meeting of economic Ministers, "We will use all possible financial and foreign exchange market stabilization measures, including unlimited liquidity injections." "The won fell to 1430 against the dollar at one point, the lowest level since October 2022, and then the South Korean parliament voted to cordon off the area, and the won fell by half, briefly recovering the 1420 mark. The Treasury Department said it would convene another emergency meeting of senior officials at 7 a.m. local time (6 a.m. Beijing time). "These events will seriously undermine investor confidence in the economy and its financial markets," Capital Economics said in a note.
5. Thailand's palm oil production declined due to heavy rains and seasonal cuts
According to foreign media reports, industry analysis shows that Thailand's palm oil production estimate for 2023/24 was lowered by 3.2% to 3.32 million tons due to floods and seasonal low production. Production fell to 199,000 tonnes in October, down 26% from 268,000 tonnes in September, official data showed. Total output in the first ten months of the year rose 3.3 percent year-on-year to 2.96 million tonnes, compared with 2.86 million tonnes in the same period last year, despite four consecutive months of declines. In November, the main palm oil producing regions in the southern region were rainy, with the highest rainfall concentrated in the southern end. More than 660,000 households in southern Thailand have reportedly been affected by widespread flooding, which is expected to hamper field operations. On the other hand, small-scale palm oil producing regions in northern, northeastern, eastern and central Thailand generally have low or mild rainfall, with little negative impact on crops. Looking ahead, the weather forecast for southern Thailand remains poor and rainy weather is expected to persist over the next two weeks.
Domestic Macro Economy Index
