December 4 Macroeconomic Index:Domestic rule of law and technological innovation are advancing hand in hand, and international economic differentiation is intensifying
Latest Global Major Index
International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend
Domestic News
1. National Development and Reform Commission: Accelerate the introduction of the Private Economy Promotion Law
2. CITIC Securities: Impact and calculation after the revision of M1 statistical caliber is implemented
3. Ministry of Commerce: Decided to strengthen export controls on relevant dual-use items to the United States
4. Ministry of Transport: Accelerate the integration and innovation of a new generation of information technology and the transportation and logistics industry
5. Everbright Securities: The yield of 10-year treasury bonds is linked to the RMB exchange rate
International News
1. Over the past 11 months, Russia's pipeline gas exports to Europe have increased by 15%
2. The Baltic Dry Bulk Index hit a more than one-year low
3. A soft landing is possible for the Australian economy
4. New Zealand's net exports have fallen for two consecutive quarters, raising the risk of a recession
5. Indonesia will cut interest rates as inflation cools and Fed easing expectations
Domestic News
1. National Development and Reform Commission: Accelerate the introduction of the Private Economy Promotion Law
The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out in an article in the Economic Daily that promoting the development and growth of the private economy is a systematic project, involving a wide range, a long policy chain, and many work links, and it is necessary to coordinate the forces of all parties, form a joint force, and promote it in a coordinated manner. Provide more solid legal safeguards. Accelerate the introduction of the law on the promotion of the private economy, implement the requirements for equal treatment of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises in terms of system and law, implement the same responsibility and punishment for acts that infringe on the economic property rights and legitimate interests of all forms of ownership, and give full play to the role of the rule of law in consolidating the fundamentals, stabilizing expectations, and benefiting the long-term development. Create a more positive social atmosphere. Continue to publicize the Party Central Committee's stance and attitude of adhering to the "two unwavering" and "three unchanged" positions and attitudes and promoting the development and growth of the private economy, vigorously promote the entrepreneurial spirit, cultivate positive examples of private enterprises and entrepreneurs, and resolutely resist and refute the erroneous remarks that take the opportunity to slander and spread rumors to smear private enterprises and private entrepreneurs.
2. CITIC Securities: Impact and calculation after the revision of M1 statistical caliber is implemented
According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, as of 24M10, the balance of M1 under the original rules was 63.34 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -6.10%; According to our calculations, if residents' demand deposits and customer reserves of third-party payment institutions are included, the "adjusted M1 balance" of 24M10 would be 105 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of -2.3%; The absolute value of the "adjusted M1 growth rate" is always higher than the growth rate of M1 under the original rules, and the long-term fluctuation is more stable, and the scissor difference between M2 and its growth rate also decreases from 13.60% to 9.83% at 24M10. Although the "adjusted M1" indicator has been improved in absolute terms compared with the original M1, we emphasize that it still cannot cover up the overall weak state of the current economic credit environment, and the "adjusted M1 growth rate" has continued to decline since the beginning of this year and has fallen back to the negative range, while the scissors difference between M2 and it is still at a high level; In addition, the adjusted M1 indicator still has a good guiding effect on PPI and finished industrial goods inventories in economic forecasts.
3. Ministry of Commerce: Decided to strengthen export controls on relevant dual-use items to the United States
The Ministry of Commerce announced that, in accordance with the Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China and other relevant laws and regulations, in order to safeguard national security and interests, and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, it has decided to strengthen the export control of relevant dual-use items to the United States. The relevant matters are hereby announced as follows: 1. The export of dual-use items to US military users or military use is prohibited. 2. In principle, the export of gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials to the United States shall not be permitted; Tighter end-user and end-use vetting for graphite dual-use items exported to the United States.
4. Ministry of Transport: Accelerate the integration and innovation of a new generation of information technology and the transportation and logistics industry
At the special press conference on reducing costs and improving quality and efficiency of transportation and logistics held by the Ministry of Transport today, Wang Xiuchun, deputy director of the Department of Transportation Services of the Ministry of Transport, said that in the next step, the Ministry of Transport will be based on the modern comprehensive transportation system, and work with relevant departments to accelerate the development of digital intelligence in transportation and logistics, promote the digital transformation and upgrading of transportation infrastructure, improve the standards and specifications of fully automated terminals, low-altitude logistics, and network freight, promote the demonstration and application of unmanned vehicles and drones in an orderly manner, and strengthen the collaborative connection of transportation and intelligent logistics standards. Promote the in-depth integration of digital technology and various scenarios of transportation and logistics, cultivate new quality productivity in the development of transportation and logistics, and better help transportation and logistics reduce costs, improve quality and efficiency. (CCTV News)
5. Everbright Securities: The yield of 10-year treasury bonds is linked to the RMB exchange rate
Regarding the trend of the RMB exchange rate, Everbright Securities believes that the yield of 10-year treasury bonds is linked to the RMB exchange rate. After the interest rate on 10-year government bonds fell below 2.0%, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate to depreciate increased. At present, the core of interest rate and exchange rate decision-making is domestic policy, and the economic work conference is a key time point in the policy game. Reasonable market expectations mean that policy acceleration of the current market trend is unlikely, but if the demand for exchange rate stability increases, the monetary authorities may rearrange domestic liquidity, which will weaken the support for the bond market. (Bond China Agency)
International News
1. Over the past 11 months, Russia's pipeline gas exports to Europe have increased by 15%
Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe increased by almost 15% from January to November to 29.3 billion cubic meters, already exceeding the total supply for all of last year, TASS calculated, based on data provided by Gazprom and the European Network of Gas Transmission System Operators (ENTSOG).
2. The Baltic Dry Bulk Index hit a more than one-year low
The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index fell to a nearly 15-month low on Monday, with all ship types declining. The Baltic Dry Index fell 56 points to 1,298, its lowest level since September 2023. The capesize freight index fell 160 points to 1,973, hitting its lowest level in a month. The average daily profit of capesize vessels fell by $1,323 to $16,363. The Panamax freight index fell 9 points to 1,009, the 12th consecutive day of decline, hitting a 16-month low. The average daily profit of Panamax ships fell by $82 to $9,079. The Supramax bulk carrier freight index fell 1 point to 979 points. The handysize freight index fell 2 points from the previous day to 657 points.
3. A soft landing is possible for the Australian economy
Australia's third-quarter GDP growth data released on Wednesday is likely to show the commodity-rich economy achieving its softest landing ever. Citibank's chief economist, Williamson, expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 0.7% in the third quarter, thanks in part to strong government spending. He added that this would be the strongest growth rate since the fourth quarter of last year and would increase the annual growth rate from 1.0 percent to 1.3 percent.
4. New Zealand's net exports have fallen for two consecutive quarters, raising the risk of a recession
New Zealand's exports fell for the second consecutive quarter, adding to the signs of a mid-year recession. Data released by Statistics New Zealand on Tuesday showed that merchandise exports fell 1.8 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter, while imports rose 3 percent. This means that net exports (comparable to the measure used in the GDP report) fell by 4.8% from the second quarter, compared with a 7.9% decline in the second quarter. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand reiterated last week that it expects a small contraction in the economy in the third quarter, which would tip New Zealand into a recession for the second time in less than two years. The central bank has been cutting interest rates aggressively as a weak economy has tampered with inflation, and last week signaled that it expects a third consecutive 50 basis point rate cut in its next decision in February.
5. Indonesia will cut interest rates as inflation cools and Fed easing expectations
Indonesia's inflation rate fell to a 40-month low in November, leading Maybank analysts to expect Bank of Indonesia to cut interest rates this month. Indonesia's headline inflation rate is now at the bottom of Bank of Indonesia's target range of 1.5%-3.5%, which, combined with expectations of the Fed's easing in December, sets the stage for the central bank to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points. Concerns about the exchange rate will not stop the central bank from cutting interest rates, as the rupiah depreciated relatively little in November, while foreign exchange reserves hit a record high in October, giving the central bank plenty of room to defend the rupiah. Maybank believes that more easing by the Fed by 2025 will give Bank of Indonesia leeway to cut its policy rate by 75 basis points to 5% by the end of the year.
Domestic Macro Economy Index
