November 18th Macroeconomic Index:【Economic Data Stable, Global Dynamics Overview: PPI Steady, CPI Mildly Up, Fed Maintains Rates, Indonesian Rupiah Supported by Central Bank - November 18, 2024】
Latest Global Major Index
International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend
Domestic News
1. National Bureau of Statistics: PPI basically remained stable in October
2. National Bureau of Statistics: CPI prices will maintain a slight upward trend in the next stage
3. National Bureau of Statistics: The production rate of crude oil accelerated in October, and the decline in crude oil processing narrowed.
4. The added value of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3% year-on-year in October, led by new energy vehicles, robots and wind power
5. In May and October, the employment situation was generally stable, and the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas declined
International News
1. Powell: The economy is strong, the Fed does not need to rush to cut interest rates and has enough time to understand the impact of Trump's policy
2. Russian officials warn: Cryptocurrency mining consumes too much electricity, and the power shortage problem in Russia will intensify
3. Israeli officials: The Lebanese-Israeli ceasefire agreement is closer than ever
4. Spanish industry: Tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles are not conducive to the development of European industries
5. The rupiah approached the 16,000 mark to 1 US dollar, and the Bank of Indonesia intervened to support the exchange rate
Domestic News
1. National Bureau of Statistics: PPI basically remained stable in October
Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office that on the whole, under the combined effect of the downward import factors of international commodity prices and the domestic policy of expanding demand, the PPI remained basically stable in October, and prices in some areas also showed signs of stopping falling and rebounding. In the next stage, in view of the sluggish situation of PPI, it is necessary to actively give full play to the effectiveness of various policies, further expand domestic demand, deepen supply-side structural reforms, strengthen innovation-driven, vigorously promote production capacity adjustment, promote high-level dynamic balance between production and demand, drive prices to stabilize and rebound, improve enterprise efficiency, enhance the confidence of business entities, and promote sustained and healthy economic development.
2. National Bureau of Statistics: CPI prices will maintain a slight upward trend in the next stage
Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that consumer prices remained stable in October, and prices rebounded slightly in some areas, driven by improved demand. In the next stage, China's grain production is expected to be bumper and the supply of live pigs and fresh vegetables is generally stable. With the arrival of winter and New Year's Day, food prices are likely to stabilize and rise. Except for energy prices, which are greatly affected by international imports, most of the products are in sufficient supply, and the prices are expected to remain stable. Service supply is generally stable. With the economic recovery and improvement, it will drive the expansion of service demand and play a certain role in service prices. Combined with these factors, CPI prices will maintain a slight upward trend in the next stage.
3. National Bureau of Statistics: The production rate of crude oil accelerated in October, and the decline in crude oil processing narrowed.
In October, the output of industrial crude oil above designated size was 17.77 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and the growth rate was 1.4 percentage points faster than that in September, with an average daily output of 573,000 tons. Imported crude oil was 44.7 million tons, down 8.7% year-on-year. In October, the industrial crude oil processing volume above the designated size was 59.54 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, 0.8 percentage points narrower than that in September, and the average daily processing volume was 1.921 million tons.
4. The added value of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3% year-on-year in October, led by new energy vehicles, robots and wind power
On Friday, November 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and increased by 0.41% month-on-month. From January to October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year. Unchanged from January-September. From January to September, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5,228.2 billion yuan, down 3.5 percent year-on-year. Among them, the output of new energy vehicles, industrial robots, integrated circuits and photovoltaic products increased by 48.6%, 33.4%, 11.8% and 13.2% year-on-year respectively.
5. In May and October, the employment situation was generally stable, and the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas declined
From January to October, the average surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas nationwide was 5.1 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. In October, the surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.0 percent, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The unemployment rate of the local registered labour force survey was 5.1%; The surveyed unemployment rate of the non-resident labor force was 4.8 percent, of which the surveyed unemployment rate of the non-resident agricultural labor force was 4.7 percent. The surveyed unemployment rate in 31 large cities and towns was 5.0 percent, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The average weekly working hours of employees in enterprises nationwide was 48.6 hours.
International News
1. Powell: The economy is strong, the Fed does not need to rush to cut interest rates and has enough time to understand the impact of Trump's policy
After the Republicans won both houses of Congress and Trump has more power to implement policy plans next year, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke out for the first time, saying that the recent performance of the U.S. economy is "quite good", giving the Fed room to cut interest rates cautiously, and the Fed has time to understand and assess the economic impact of Trump's policies in the future before reacting. On Thursday, November 14, local time, in a dialogue with local business leaders co-hosted by the Dallas Fed, Powell said that the current state of the U.S. economy does not suggest that the Fed needs to cut interest rates in a hurry. Because of the strong economic performance, the Fed can take its time to make the decision. The road to the Fed's 2% inflation target has been bumpy at times. "The economy is not sending any signal that we need to rush to cut interest rates. The economic strength we are currently seeing gives us the ability to make decisions prudently. After Powell said that he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates, the yield on two-year Treasury bonds, which is sensitive to the outlook for interest rates, rose 3 basis points in the short term to near 4.32%, and U.S. stocks briefly rose to 4.37% in late trading. Spot gold, which rose slightly more than 0.1% in U.S. stocks at midday, fell about $6 to $2,570 in the short term, and fell again during the day. The U.S. dollar index extended gains.
2. Russian officials warn: Cryptocurrency mining consumes too much electricity, and the power shortage problem in Russia will intensify
Russia's "Independent" reported on the 13th that Russian officials warned that the domestic power shortage will intensify in the next 5 to 10 years, mainly due to the excessive power consumption of cryptocurrency mining. At present, some regions of Russia are already facing power shortages, and the government is expected to completely ban mining activities and implement tiered electricity prices. While cryptocurrency mining can increase tax revenues and boost the economy, the issue of electricity consumption needs to be addressed urgently.
3. Israeli officials: The Lebanese-Israeli ceasefire agreement is closer than ever
On the 14th local time, Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen said that the Lebanese-Israeli ceasefire agreement was close to being reached. Israeli media reported that Lebanon could respond to the proposed ceasefire in the next 24 hours. Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen said on the same day that a ceasefire agreement has been closer than ever since the outbreak of the Lebanese-Israeli conflict. On the same day, Israeli Foreign Minister Shar said that progress had been made in ceasefire talks between Israel and the Lebanese side. According to Israel's Channel 12 television station, Lebanon may respond to the ceasefire proposal issued by the United States to Lebanon in the next 24 hours.
4. Spanish industry: Tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles are not conducive to the development of European industries
As an important part of the European electric vehicle market, Spain has developed rapidly in recent years, driven by policy support and market demand. Arturo Pérez, General Manager of the Spanish Business Association for the Development and Promotion of Electric Vehicles, said that the EU's move to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles will not help the development of Europe's local industries, and he stressed that Europe needs more cooperation and exchanges with China.
5. The rupiah approached the 16,000 mark to 1 US dollar, and the Bank of Indonesia intervened to support the exchange rate
After the rupiah fell to the psychological level of 16,000 rupiah per dollar, Bank of Indonesia intervened in the currency market to support the exchange rate. Edi Susianto, Executive Head of the Monetary and Asset Securities Management Division, said that Bank of Indonesia intervened in the spot rate, domestic non-deliverable forwards and government bond markets to support the rupiah. He also added that the supply of dollars in the market is still sufficient.
Domestic Macro Economy Index
