Caustic soda: Spot prices increased partially, with futures prices falling by more than 5% within the day, ranking first among the leading losers in the Wenhua Commodity Index

Analysis of caustic soda futures:SH2501 contract opening price: 2417, highest price: 2420, lowest price: 2292, position: 52877, settlement price: 2325, yesterday settlement: 2439, down: 114, closing price: 2306, daily trading volume: 135466 lots, precipitated capital: 585 million, capital inflow: 107 million.

Market price of caustic soda:

Spot analysis of caustic soda:Today, China's caustic soda market rose on the first day after the festival, prices showed a regional upward trend, the market in most regions remained stable, and the attitude of operators was cautious. Today, the trend of the liquid alkali market is upward, the price center of gravity in some areas has moved up, the high concentration of alkali is relatively obvious, and the market in most areas is stable. From the point of view of regional market price adjustment, 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali rose 5-10 yuan / ton, 50% ion-exchange membrane alkali rose 10-20 yuan / ton, the price of other concentration alkali almost remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. First of all, from the perspective of low concentration of alkali, enterprises in Shandong, the main producing area, flexibly raise prices according to their shipments; the enthusiasm of receiving goods downstream of some areas in South China is OK, while the local supply is relatively tight, and the price center of gravity moves slightly upward. From the point of view of the high concentration alkali market, the start-up of evaporation devices in individual enterprises in the main producing areas is unstable, and prices are raised slightly in the case of unstable supply, which has also led to prices in the surrounding areas. There is no obvious change on both sides of supply and demand in other areas, and the market trading atmosphere mostly maintains the previous level, and the price adjustment is lack of motivation. Most of the upstream production enterprises wait and see to stabilize the price, the mentality of price adjustment is more cautious, and a few manufacturers adjust their quotations slightly. Today, the price center of gravity in some areas of the tablet alkali market has moved up slightly, and prices in most areas have remained stable. The operation of most devices is stable, individual devices are overhauled, most of the market shipments are dull, the enthusiasm for receiving goods downstream is general, the demand side has not seen substantial improvement, and the market transaction prices in most areas are stable. The performance of the market mentality is relatively cautious, mainly wait and see the market.

Caustic soda futures analysis:Caustic soda SH2501 contract opening price appeared obvious diving market, followed by a concussive downward trend, the market showed obvious weakness throughout the day. As of today's close, SH2501 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2292-2420 throughout the day, with a price gap of 128 and a position increase of 11785 hands, with a position of 52877 hands so far.

Caustic soda index analysis:According to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index rose 9.98%, or 0.353%, to 2841.14 on Sept. 18, while China's caustic soda index rose.

Future forecast of caustic soda:

Spot aspect:Most of the caustic soda units on the supply side operate stably, the overall supply of goods on the market is relatively sufficient, and the inventory pressure of caustic soda enterprises increases slightly after the holiday, but the start-up of the downstream has not changed much for the time being, and the substantive demand on the market has not improved significantly for the time being. supply and demand both sides of the market support may not be obvious in the short term. The high concentration alkali market is affected by the rising export prices, which supports the Chinese prices, and the prices are relatively strong. On the whole, it is expected that the short-term caustic soda market or regional adjustment, the price of high concentration caustic soda will rise slightly, the price of low concentration caustic soda will be adjusted flexibly, and the tablet caustic soda market may be stable.

In terms of futures:Caustic soda main SH2501 contract price significantly increased positions down, short entry is more obvious, disk turnover: more than 19.5% vs. 23.9%, empty 17.9% vs. 16.4%. Caustic soda prices are at the top of the Mandarin index, down more than 5% on the day. The technical level shows that the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) three tracks diverge obviously, the upper track turns upward, the lower rail rapidly downward, the daily KD line shows a dead fork trend, and the MACD line also shows a dead fork trend and expands. Today's futures price fell below the track and fell below the 2300 mark, the second lowest point since the listing of caustic soda futures, and has not yet been able to refresh its previous low of 2280. In the short term, there is some support below the surface, but the short-sellers are relatively active, and the futures price may continue to test the low range.

Caustic soda holds the list: