Analysis of soda ash market

Today, China's soda ash market is weak. As of now, the price of light soda ash in East China is 1,400 - 1,650 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,450 - 1,700 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is 1,350 - 1,550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,450 - 1,650 yuan/ton. In the early stage, the maintenance equipment of some soda plants gradually resumed and was put into operation, and the market supply increased; after the holiday, some enterprises in some regions competed to cut prices due to the impact of low-cost sources from surrounding areas, but the shipment situation was still unsatisfactory; downstream demand was still weak, and it was just in need of procurement. The overall operation of the soda ash market was still not optimistic.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on September 18, was 1345 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1358 yuan/ton, an increase of-1.52% within the day. The intraday high was 1377 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1317 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1335852 lots, a month-on-month +13396 lots.

Soda ash futures prices bottomed out today, and market sentiment rebounded mainly in the afternoon due to policy and export news. At present, the core contradiction in the soda ash market has not improved significantly. However, low-priced transactions in the middle reaches of the market are still acceptable. Although the total demand continues to decline, the scale still exists. Under low valuations, bears are more cautious, and their risk-averse response to market bullish news is also relatively amplified. Overall, the surplus pattern of soda ash market is still difficult to break, and its own prices are also simultaneously suppressed by both sides of supply and demand. In the short term, we can observe whether the market macro sentiment can continue to stabilize and improve the profit repair problem of the entire industrial chain, so that the top can be opened. Space, before that, soda ash prices may still be low and mainly volatile.

market outlook

As the equipment in the soda plant is restored in the early stage of maintenance, the market starts will gradually rise to a high level; some downstream enterprises will reduce production and operate, and demand is not expected to recover in the short term, and the weakening trend of the soda ash market will remain.