[Soda ash]9.4 Soda ash Daily Review: Soda ash market is weak

Analysis of soda ash market

Today, the prices of some soda ash markets in China are stabilizing and declining. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Central China is 1,450 - 1,700 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,550 - 1,750 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in East China is 1,550 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,600 - 1,800 yuan/ton. Today, the operation of the soda plant units is basically stable, and the market supply is still sufficient. However, the operating rate of the downstream glass industry has declined, and the demand for heavy alkali has further declined. Enterprises have been waiting and see. Driven by no good, it is difficult for the soda ash market to show a positive situation.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on September 4, was 1495 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1485 yuan/ton, an increase of-0.87% within the day. The highest intraday session was 1520 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1475 yuan/ton, with a total position of 1213922 lots, a month-on-month period of-27848 lots.

Today, soda ash futures prices surged high and fell mainly. Affected by the lower-than-expected U.S. manufacturing PMI last night, market vulnerability once again emerged, and global assets fell sharply. The logic of strong supply and weak demand for soda ash itself continues. The negative feedback of the entire industry chain cannot stop until the actual downstream demand improves. The market will gradually lower the valuation of soda ash with the difference between supply and demand. However, the recent supply-side reduction has been relatively obvious, and prices are still elastic to a certain extent. Whether demand for light alkali can improve and whether macro sentiment can resume are issues worth looking forward to and attention in the near future. Before this, the market lacks new drivers or is still operating in weak shocks. Mainly.

market outlook

Subsequent alkali plant maintenance equipment will resume operation, and market start-up will gradually increase; downstream market demand will be weak, and procurement will remain in need; supply and demand will increase, and it is expected that the soda ash market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.