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Tdd-global Gasoline Industry Weekly-No. 20240418

70,733
April 18, 2024, 5:34 PM

Gasoline Weekly-20240418 issue

 

I. International crude oil futures price

Date

WTI

Brent

Muerban

DME Oman

Shanghai crude oil

WTI/ Brent spread

Brent / DME Oman spread

20240412

85.660

90.450

90.240

90.350

665.300

-4.790

0.100

20240417

82.690

87.290

87.570

90.500

663.300

-4.600

-3.210

The rate of change compared with last week

-3.47%

-3.49%

-2.96%

0.17%

-0.30%

-3.97%

-3310.00%

Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel.

 

 

 

II. Summary of gasoline market

Wholesale prices of China's main units rose mainly this week (20240411-20240418), with an overall increase of between 30,400 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price of the refinery rose, with an overall increase of 80-440 yuan per ton. At the beginning of the week, crude oil weakens the mindset of bearish operators, the pace of downstream buyers entering the market slows down, refineries reduce prices and promote sales to ensure shipments, and the market trading atmosphere is mediocre. The price of crude oil rose in the middle of the week, and China's gasoline prices warmed up under the favorable news of geopolitical factors. In terms of demand in the Chinese market, the atmosphere of stock preparation during the May Day holiday is getting stronger, mainly in the middle and lower reaches, and refinery shipments are getting better.

 

III. Gasoline price index

According to Tudor data, as of April 18, China's gasoline price index was 9442.49, up 132.17 from last week, an increase of 0.01%, or 0.01%, from last week. The gasoline price index rose 132.22, or 0.01%, from last week. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both raised, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 301.41.

 

 

IV. Spot market for gasoline

 

1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China

 

Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)

Area

Gasoline model

Price 4.11

Price 4.18

Rise and fall

Amplitude

East China region

92#

9020-9600

9200-9630

180/30

2.00%/0.31%

95#

9210-9800

9350-9980

140/180

1.52%/1.84%

South China

92#

9050-10380

9450-10330

400/-50

4.42%/-0.48%

95#

9550-10680

9650-10630

100/-50

1.05%/-0.47%

North China region

92#

8870-9900

9150-10132

280/232

3.16%/2.34%

95#

9070-10274

9300-10514

230/240

2.54%/2.34%

Northwestern region

92#

9000-10321

9300-10533

300/212

3.33%/2.05%

95#

9200-10955

9500-11146

300/191

3.26%/1.74%

Northeast China

92#

8830-9300

9000-9400

170/100

1.93%/1.08%

95#

9085-9650

9210-9700

125/50

1.38%/0.52%

Southwest China

92#

9300--10491

9300--10703

0/212

0.00%/2.02%

95#

9600-11102

9600-11326

0/224

0.00%/2.02%

Central China

92#

9200-9750

9330-9900

130/150

1.41%/1.54%

95#

9400-10050

9500-10200

100/150

1.06%/1.49%

 

Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton)

Area

Gasoline model

Price 4.11

Price 4.18

Rise and fall

Amplitude

Shandong area

92#

8850-9150

9000-9450

150/300

1.69%/3.28%

95#

8960-9300

9080-9600

120/300

1.34%/3.23%

Northwestern region

92#

8850-9000

9020-9300

170/300

1.92%/3.33%

95#

9050-9200

9250-9500

200/300

2.21%/3.26%

Northeast China

92#

8750-8900

9000-9020

250/120

2.86%/1.35%

95#

8950-8950

9200-9200

250/250

2.79%/2.79%

East China region

92#

9200-9200

9150-9280

-50/80

-0.54%/0.87%

95#

9070-9140

9300-9390

230/250

2.54%/2.74%

North China region

92#

8900-8900

9050-9150

150/250

1.69%/2.81%

95#

8980-9000

9150-9200

170/200

1.89%/2.22%

Central China

92#

8980-8980

9420-9420

440/440

4.90%/4.90%

95#

9400-9400

9620-9620

220/220

2.34%/2.34%

Southwest China

92#

9300-9300

9400-9400

100/100

1.08%/1.08%

95#

9450-9450

9550-9550

100/100

1.06%/1.06%

 

2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions

 

(1) Northeast China

Province / city

Model

Price 4.11

Price 4.18

Rise and fall

Amplitude

Jilin

92#

9000-9000

9100-9100

100/100

1.11%/1.11%

95#

9450-9600

9600-9650

150/50

1.59%/0.52%

Liaoning

92#

8830-9300

9050-9400

220/100

2.49%/1.08%

95#

9085-9600

9210-9700

125/100

1.38%/1.04%

Heilongjiang Province

92#

9100-9100

9150-9150

50/50

0.55%/0.55%

95#

9400-9400

9400-9400

0/0

0.00%/0.00%

 

(2) East China

Province / city

Model

Price 4.11

Price 4.18

Rise and fall

Amplitude

Shanghai

92#

9170-9350

9200-9450

30/100

0.33%/1.07%

95#

9300-9550

9350-9650

50/100

0.54%/1.05%

Shandong

92#

9090-9530

9250-9630

160/100

1.76%/1.05%

95#

9210-9750

9350-9980

140/230

1.52%/2.36%

Jiangsu Province

92#

9380-9400

9380-9400

0/0

0.00%/0.00%

95#

9630-9650

9500-9550

-130/-100

-1.35%/-1.04%

Zhejiang

92#

9350-9600

9350-9550

0/-50

0.00%/-0.52%

95#

9550-9800

9550-9750

0/-50

0.00%/-0.51%

 

(3) Central China

Province / city

Model

Price 4.11

Price 4.18

Rise and fall

Amplitude

Anhui Province

92#

9200-9380

9350-9600

150/220

1.63%/2.35%

95#

9400-9580

9500-9800

100/220

1.06%/2.30%

Jiangxi Province

92#

9400-9450

9500-9600

100/150

1.06%/1.59%

95#

9650-9700

9780-9800

130/100

1.35%/1.03%

Hubei province

92#

9230-9750

9450-9900

220/150

2.38%/1.54%

95#

9430-10050

9650-10200

220/150

2.33%/1.49%

Hunan

92#

9330-9450

9330-9550

0/100

0.00%/1.06%

95#

9530-9750

9530-9850

0/100

0.00%/1.03%

 

(4) North China

Province / city

Model

Price 4.11

Price 4.18

Rise and fall

Amplitude

Inner Mongolia Autonomous region

92#

9100-9900

9300-10132

200/232

2.20%/2.34%

95#

9300-10074

9500-10514

200/440

2.15%/4.37%

Beijing

92#

9450-9500

9650-9700

200/200

2.12%/2.11%

95#

9600-9650

9800-9850

200/200

2.08%/2.07%

Tianjin

92#

8870-9100

9000-9200

130/100

1.47%/1.10%

95#

9070-9300

9200-9400

130/100

1.43%/1.08%

Shanxi Province

92#

9150-9700

9510-9800

360/100

3.93%/1.03%

95#

9450-9700

9900-10200

450/500

4.76%/5.15%

Hebei

92#

9070-9350

9150-9450

80/100

0.88%/1.07%

95#

9190-9550

9300-9650

110/100

1.20%/1.05%

Henan

92#

9070-9300

9320-9630

250/330

2.76%/3.55%

95#

9350-9600

9570-9930

220/330

2.35%/3.44%

 

(5) South China

Province / city

Model

Price 4.11

Price 4.18

Rise and fall

Amplitude

Guangdong

92#

9400-10380

9450-10030

50/-350

0.53%/-3.37%

95#

9750-10680

9750-10630

0/-50

0.00%/-0.47%

Hainan

92#

9350-9700

9450-9700

100/0

1.07%/0.00%

95#

9550-9900

9650-9900

100/0

1.05%/0.00%

Fujian

92#

9350-9800

9450-9850

100/50

1.07%/0.51%

95#

9650-10000

9650-10050

0/50

0.00%/0.50%

 

(6) Northwest China

Province / city

Model

Price 4.11

Price 4.18

Rise and fall

Amplitude

Ningxia Hui Autonomous region

92#

9000-9763

9300-9975

300/212

3.33%/2.17%

95#

9200-10131

9500-10351

300/220

3.26%/2.17%

Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region

92#

9936-9936

10098-10098

162/162

1.63%/1.63%

95#

10507-10507

10681-10681

174/174

1.66%/1.66%

Gansu

92#

9200-10321

9450-10533

250/212

2.72%/2.05%

95#

9550-10922

9950-11146

400/224

4.19%/2.05%

Xizang Autonomous region

92#

9980-9981

10100-10101

120/120

1.20%/1.20%

95#

10430-10431

10550-10551

120/120

1.15%/1.15%

Shaanxi

92#

9000-9715

9300-9805

300/90

3.33%/0.93%

95#

9200-10085

9500-10175

300/90

3.26%/0.89%

Qinghai

92#

9380-9380

9520-9520

140/140

1.49%/1.49%

95#

9790-9790

9930-9930

140/140

1.43%/1.43%

 

(7) Southwest China

Province / city

Model

Price 4.11

Price 4.18

Rise and fall

Amplitude

Yunnan

92#

9600-9730

9800-10050

200/320

2.08%/3.29%

95#

10050-10280

10250-10400

200/120

1.99%/1.17%

Sichuan

92#

9300-9500

9400-9690

100/190

1.08%/2.00%

95#

9700-9850

9800-9990

100/140

1.03%/1.42%

Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region

92#

9500-10491

9520-10703

20/212

0.21%/2.02%

95#

960-11102

9670-11326

8710/224

907.29%/2.02%

Guizhou

92#

9550-9900

9700-9750

150/-150

1.57%/-1.52%

95#

9580-10200

10000-10050

420/-150

4.38%/-1.47%

Chongqing

92#

9250-9500

9300-9600

50/100

0.54%/1.05%

95#

9600-9800

9600-10000

0/200

0.00%/2.04%

 

(8) Northeast geochemistry

Province / city

Model

Price 4.11

Price 4.18

Rise and fall

Amplitude

Jilin

92#

8750-8750

9000-9000

250/250

2.86%/2.86%

95#

8950-8950

9200-9200

250/250

2.79%/2.79%


(9) East China geochemistry

Province / city

Model

Price 4.11

Price 4.18

Rise and fall

Amplitude

Jiangsu Province

92#

8950-9030

9150-9280

200/250

2.23%/2.77%

95#

9070-9140

9300-9390

230/250

2.54%/2.74%

 

(10) Central China Refinery

Province / city

Model

Price 4.11

Price 4.18

Rise and fall

Amplitude

Hubei province

92#

9200-9200

9420-9420

220/220

2.39%/2.39%

95#

9400-9400

9620-9620

220/220

2.34%/2.34%

 

(11) geochemistry in North China

Province / city

Model

Price 4.11

Price 4.18

Rise and fall

Amplitude

Henan

92#

8830-8850

9050-9150

220/300

2.49%/3.39%

95#

8930-8930

9150-9300

220/370

2.46%/4.14%

 

(12) Shandong Geolian

Province / city

Model

Price 4.11

Price 4.18

Rise and fall

Amplitude

Shandong

92#

8850-9150

9000-9450

150/300

1.69%/3.28%

95#

8960-9300

9080-9600

120/300

1.34%/3.23%

 

(13) Northwest Refinery

Province / city

Model

Price 4.11

Price 4.18

Rise and fall

Amplitude

Ningxia Hui Autonomous region

92#

8850-9000

9100-9200

250/200

2.82%/2.22%

95#

9050-9150

9250-9250

200/100

2.21%/1.09%

Shaanxi

92#

9000-9000

9050-9300

50/300

0.56%/3.33%

95#

9200-9200

9500-9500

300/300

3.26%/3.26%

 

(14) Southwest Refinery

Province / city

Model

Price 4.11

Price 4.18

Rise and fall

Amplitude

Sichuan Province

92#

9400-9400

9550-9550

150/150

1.60%/1.60%

95#

9200-9200

9400-9400

200/200

2.17%/2.17%

 

V. Future forecast

The main negative factors for the decline in international crude oil prices are: the conflict between Iran and Israel has not yet further escalated, geopolitical concerns have eased, and the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts has been postponed again, and the US dollar has performed strongly. From the demand point of view, with the approach of May Day holiday, the intention of middle and lower reaches merchants to prepare goods before the festival is gradually rising. From the supply side, the refinery performance pressure will increase in the middle and late next month, and the main units will produce more promotions. Generally speaking, it is expected that China's gasoline market will be stable and fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

VI. Operating rate

This week (20240411-20240418) the operating rate of independent refineries was 57.11%, down 0.05%; the operating rate of main units was 77.82%, down 1.06%.

 

VII. Plant maintenance schedule

 


Maintenance list of main refinery equipment

Refinery

Inspection and repair device

Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons)

Start time

End time

Tianjin Petrochemical Company

Atmospheric and vacuum decompression

250

June 2024

Tentatively

Tahe petrochemical

Atmospheric and vacuum decompression

350

March 1, 2024

March 26, 2024

Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry

Atmospheric and vacuum decompression

800

April 18, 2024

June 18, 2024

Qilu Petrochemical

Atmospheric and vacuum decompression

800

June 10, 2024

July 20, 2024

Chinese Science Refining and Chemical Industry

Whole plant overhaul

1000

March 20, 2024

May 20, 2024

Maoming Petrochemical

Atmospheric and vacuum decompression

500

May 25, 2024

July 5, 2024

Cangzhou Petrochemical

Whole plant overhaul

350

August 25, 2024

October 25, 2024

Shengli Oilfield

Whole plant overhaul

300

September 1, 2024

November 1, 2024

Wuhan Petrochemical Corporation

Whole plant overhaul

850

October 13, 2024

December 15, 2024

Changling Petrochemical Company

Atmospheric and vacuum

800

December 1, 2024

To be determined

Fujian Union

Whole plant overhaul

1200

November 1, 2024

December 20, 2024

Jinling Petrochemical

Atmospheric and vacuum decompression

800

November 15, 2024

December 31, 2024

Dalian Petrochemical Corporation

Whole plant overhaul

2050

April 1, 2024

May 30, 2024

Jinzhou Petrochemical

Whole plant overhaul

650

April 10, 2024

May 22, 2024

Ningxia Petrochemical Company

Whole plant overhaul

500

July 3, 2024

August 31, 2024

Dushanzi petrification

Whole plant overhaul

1000

May 15, 2024

July 5, 2024

Dalian West Pacific

Atmospheric and vacuum decompression

450

May 25, 2024

July 13, 2024

Jilin Petrochemical Corporation

Whole plant overhaul

980

August 24, 2024

October 14, 2024

Guangxi Petrochemical Corporation

Whole plant overhaul

1000

October 10, 2024

November 30, 2024

CNOOC Orient

Whole plant overhaul

200

April 1, 2024

May 15, 2024

China Asphalt Sichuan

Whole plant overhaul

60

March 17, 2024

April 9, 2024

 

Maintenance list of local refinery equipment

Refinery

Inspection and repair device

Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons)

Start time

End time

Aoxing petrochemical

Rotation inspection

240

May 2024

June 2024

Shandong Haihua

Whole plant overhaul

240

January 31, 2024

April 13, 2024

Shenchi chemical industry

Whole plant overhaul

260

January 25, 2024

At the end of April 2024

Xinhai Sinopec

Atmospheric and vacuum

300

April 1, 2024

2024 15

Lanqiao Petrochemical

Whole plant overhaul

350

December 18, 2023

Late April 2024

Haiyou petrochemical

Whole plant overhaul

350

January 31, 2024

April 1, 2024

Zhonghe petrochemical

Whole plant overhaul

500

May 1, 2024

June 2024

Hubei Jinao

Whole plant overhaul

500

March 5, 2024

May 31, 2024

Liaoning Huajin

Whole plant overhaul

600

July 2024

September 2024

Dalian Hengli

Atmospheric and vacuum decompression and reorganization

1000

April 2024

June 2024

Dongchen Petrochemical

Rotation inspection

/

2024 / late February

To be determined