Gasoline monthly issue 202401

January gasoline Market Analysis and Forecast

January gasoline market analysis

As of January 31, China's gasoline price index was 8904.50, up 124.58, or 1.42%, from January 2, while China's gasoline price index was 9208.86, up 115.17, or 1.27%. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index both rose, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 304.36.

In January 2024, China's gasoline market fluctuated within a narrow range, and the market climbed slowly at the end of the month. In the spot market, China's main wholesale prices rose mainly in December, with regional prices rising 100-200 yuan per ton, with a range of 1.39% and 2.00%. However, high-end gasoline prices in North China have fallen. The ex-factory price of geo-refinery has also increased mostly, with the price of gasoline rising by 80-160 yuan per ton, with a range of 0.95%, 1.93%. Gasoline prices in central China fell slightly by 80 yuan per ton. The main influencing factors of this month are as follows: 1. The market of crude oil has weighed the prospect of supply and demand many times during the month. The geopolitical situation is unstable and the trend of crude oil shock is obvious. The sharp drop in US crude oil production in the last ten days of the month, coupled with the fact that the economy is improving to push up oil prices, but the increase is limited, the crude oil market as a whole fluctuated downward in January. 2. On the supply side, there is no new overhaul or resumption of refineries in January, and the adjustment is limited. The operating rate of the main unit is 76.00%, and the operating rate of independent refineries in January is 66.52%. The overall supply of the market is relatively loose. On the demand side, New Year's Day's post-holiday replenishment efforts are limited, and demand returns to rigid demand procurement; as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some middle and lower reaches are preparing for bargains, but in the middle of the month, the rain and snow weather in the north increases, and refinery shipments are blocked and transactions are limited; in the second ten days of the month, there has been an increase in centralized replenishment operations in the middle and lower reaches, and refineries are willing to raise prices. On the whole, January coincided with better demand expectations before the Spring Festival, but the overall market performance was relatively moderate and the increase was lower than expected. 3. From the point of view of the price adjustment mechanism of refined oil, at the beginning of 2024, the retail price was raised by 200 yuan per ton, the retail price dropped slightly on January 17, and the gasoline price was reduced by 50 yuan per ton.

 

2. Comparison of spot gasoline prices within the month of nbsp;

Comparison of main wholesale prices of gasoline in January (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 1.2	Price 1.31	Rise and fall	Amplitude
North China region	92#	8430-9600	8550-9364	120/-236	1.42%/-2.46%
	95#	8630-9900	8750-9719	120/-181	1.39%/-1.83%
South China	92#	8700-9450	8950-9680	250/230	2.87%/2.43%
	95#	8900-9750	9050-9980	150/230	1.69%/2.36%
Central China	92#	8650-9050	8800-9400	150/350	1.73%/3.87%
	95#	8850-9350	8950-9700	100/350	1.13%/3.74%
East China region	92#	8500-8990	8680-9100	180/110	2.12%/1.22%
	95#	8570-9200	8900-9500	330/300	3.85%/3.26%
Northwestern region	92#	8550-9600	8680-9765	130/165	1.52%/1.72%
	95#	8750-9860	8880-10070	130/210	1.49%/2.13%
Southwest China	92#	8800-9200	8980-9400	180/200	2.05%/2.17%
	95#	9000-9650	9160-9850	160/200	1.78%/2.07%
Northeast China	92#	8480-8950	8650-9000	170/50	2.00%/0.56%
	95#	8650-9600	8730-9600	80/0	0.92%/0.00%

 

 

 

3. Future forecast

From the international crude oil point of view, OPEC production reduction sentiment still exists, OPEC held a meeting in early February, pay more attention to whether the meeting situation brings new guidelines. In addition, geopolitical events are continuing, China has introduced economic stimulus policies, superimposed by the expectation of a decline in crude oil stocks in the United States, positive factors in the crude oil market increased in February, and there is room for international oil prices to rise. From the demand point of view, the blizzard and heavy snow weather is common in many places across the country in early February, coupled with the end of stock preparation before the Spring Festival, the market will return to dull. During the Spring Festival, residents travel increased, travel radius expanded, sales of terminal gas stations are expected to rise, there are certain replenishment operations after the festival, and then there is no good support for the gasoline market or will return to rigid demand procurement. On the supply side, the local refinery Shenchi Chemical began maintenance in early February, and the main units did not have any new maintenance plants in February. Coupled with the Spring Festival holiday, China's gasoline production in February was limited, with a high probability of decline. In terms of exports, gasoline exports are planned to be 640000 tons in February, down 390000 tons from January, to a certain extent, affected by the Spring Festival holiday. Taken together, it is expected that the downward channel of the gasoline market may be opened in the later period of February.

II. Analysis of gasoline production in China

1. Gasoline output analysis

In December 2023, China's gasoline output was 12.962 million tons, an increase of 1.448 million tons, or 12.58 percent, over 11.514 million tons, and an increase of 272000 tons, or 2.14 percent, over 12.69 million tons. From January to December 2023, China's gasoline output totaled 160.923 million tons, an increase of 15.156 million tons or 10.40% over the same period of 145.767 million tons.

 

2. Analysis of output refinery

In January, China's refined oil output increased slightly, the output of the main unit was relatively stable, and the output of independent refineries increased narrowly, of which the monthly weekly output of the main refinery was concentrated at 2.2776 million million tons, and the weekly output of independent refineries was up to 993900 tons. Commercial inventories accumulated, with an increase of 199700 tons.

 

III. Analysis of operating rate of refineries in China

1.   main refinery operating rate of refined oil products

 

In January 2024, the monthly operating rate of the main refinery was relatively stable, with the overall operating rate of 76.00% in January, an increase of 2.99% over the same period last year.

2.   operating rate of independent refineries of refined oil products

 

 

In January 2024, the operating rate of independent refineries gradually increased, with an average monthly operating rate of 66.52%, an increase of 5.40% over the same period last year.

IV. Analysis of gasoline import and export

1. Gasoline import

According to customs data, there was no gasoline import in December 2023, and a total of 17.37 tons of gasoline were imported from January to December.

 

2. Gasoline export

According to customs data, gasoline exports in December 2023 were 767900 tons, a decrease of 1.1402 million tons, or-59.76 percent, compared with 1.9081 million tons last year, and a decrease of 120300 tons, or-13.54 percent, compared with 888200 tons. Exports totaled 12.1807 million tons from January to December 2023, a decrease of 443400 tons from 12.6241 million tons last year, or-3.51 percent.

 

Among them, the main exporters in December were Singapore, Brunei, Pakistan and South Korea, accounting for 88%, 5%, 4% and 3% of the total exports respectively. Singapore is in the top position.

 

 

 

V. Analysis of apparent gasoline consumption

 

 

The apparent gasoline consumption in December 2023 was 12.1941 million tons, an increase of 2.582 million tons, or 26.86 percent, over last year's 9.6121 million tons, and an increase of 392,300 tons, or 3.32 percent, over 13.3174 million tons. The apparent gasoline consumption totaled 148.7954 million tons from January to December 2023.

VI. Profit analysis

1. Analysis of gasoline retail profit.

In January 2024, the retail profit of gasoline at the gas station increased at first and then decreased, with the highest retail profit of 1378 yuan / ton and the lowest retail profit of 1230 yuan / ton.

2. Weekly production margin of oil products

In January, the gross profit of the weekly production of the main comprehensive oil refining increased first and then decreased, with the highest gross profit of 820.06 yuan / ton during the month, while the gross profit of the comprehensive oil refining weekly production gradually decreased by 116 yuan / ton during the month. The gross profit of atmospheric and vacuum production is concentrated at 313-358 yuan / ton, that of FCC production is-123 murmur38 yuan / ton, and that of delayed coking production is concentrated at 367.13-465.79 yuan / ton.

 

VII. Analysis of gasoline inventory

 

In January 2024, the average monthly commercial inventory of gasoline was 13.2454 million tons, a decrease of 1.9332 million tons compared with the same period last year, or-12.74 percent.

VIII. International crude Oil Futures Price and its trend

Types	WTI	Brent	Muerban	DME Oman	Shanghai crude oil
Average price of 202312	72.12	77.32	76.65	77.21	555.34
Average price of 202401	73.55	78.84	78.29	78.51	562.39
The rate of change compared with the previous month	1.98%	1.97%	2.14%	1.68%	1.27%
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. 2. This month, the WTI/ Brent spread is-5.29 and the Brent / DME Oman spread is 0.33.

 

 

IX. Price adjustment schedule of refined oil products in 2024

1.   2024 Price Adjustment Summary of Oil products

 

2.   2024 price adjustment schedule

 

10. China equipment maintenance Plan

1. The latest maintenance list of the main refinery equipment

 

2. & the latest inspection and repair table of nbsp; local refinery equipment

Maintenance list of local refinery equipment
Refinery	Inspection and repair device	Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons)	Start time	End time
Aoxing petrochemical	Atmospheric and vacuum	240	November 30, 2023	January 1, 2024
Liaoning Huajin	Whole plant overhaul	600	May 1, 2024	June 1, 2024
Xinhai Sinopec	Atmospheric and vacuum	300	March 1, 2024	April 1, 2024
Shenchi chemical industry	Whole plant overhaul	260	At the end of January 2024	April 2024