Tu Duoduo Gasoline Industry Weekly-No. 20240125
92,037 
January 25, 2024, 5:22 PM
Gasoline Weekly-20240125 issue
I. International crude oil futures price
|
Date |
WTI |
Brent |
Muerban |
DME Oman |
Shanghai crude oil |
WTI/ Brent spread |
Brent / DME Oman spread |
|
20240118 |
74.08 |
79.1 |
79.1 |
77.65 |
553.6 |
-5.02 |
1.45 |
|
20240124 |
75.09 |
80.04 |
80.27 |
79.6 |
567 |
-4.95 |
0.44 |
|
The rate of change compared with last week |
1.36% |
1.19% |
1.48% |
2.51% |
2.42% |
-1.39% |
-69.66% |
|
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. |
|||||||
II. Summary of gasoline market
This week (20240119-20240125) China's gasoline market is relatively strong, with limited volatility during the week. Among them, the wholesale prices of the main units are both rising and falling, and the range of adjustment is mostly concentrated in 20-100 yuan / ton. Local refinery factory prices increased slightly, concentrated in 30-90 yuan / ton, gasoline prices in some areas have fallen. The main factors of the gasoline market: the international crude oil has a good game, continues the concussive trend, and has limited guidance to China's gasoline market. At present, the demand side is the leading factor in China's gasoline market. Approaching the Spring Festival, the atmosphere of stock preparation before the festival is gradually rising, and the enthusiasm of traders in the middle and lower reaches to enter the market is increased, but the quantity is limited, and there is a rigid demand for procurement while eliminating the stock. Refineries have different willingness to raise prices, and the shipping transaction policy is relatively flexible. The hidden benefit transaction policy of some units still exists; the sales of better areas are slightly increased.
III. Gasoline price index
According to Tudor data, as of January 25, China's gasoline price index was 8809.27, up 4.5% from last week, up 0.05% from last week. The gasoline price index was 9126.42, up 9.20% from last week, or 0.10%. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both raised, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 317.15.
IV. Spot market for gasoline
1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China
|
Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 1.18 |
Price 1.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
North China region |
92# |
8450-9364 |
8450-9364 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8650-9719 |
8650-9719 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
South China |
92# |
8700-9530 |
8800-9570 |
100/40 |
1.15%/0.42% |
|
95# |
8900-9830 |
9000-9870 |
100/40 |
1.12%/0.41% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8730-9200 |
8750-9250 |
20/50 |
0.23%/0.54% |
|
95# |
8950-9500 |
8950-9550 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.53% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8550-9100 |
8550-9100 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-9500 |
8750-9500 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8750-9765 |
8700-9765 |
-50/0 |
-0.57%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8950-10050 |
8850-10050 |
-100/0 |
-1.12%/0.00% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8850-9250 |
8900-9250 |
50/0 |
0.56%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9000-9680 |
9050-9700 |
50/20 |
0.56%/0.21% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8580-9150 |
8550-9000 |
-30/-150 |
-0.35%/-1.64% |
|
95# |
8730-9600 |
8730-9600 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 1.18 |
Price 1.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
8170-8610 |
8270-8700 |
100/90 |
1.22%/1.05% |
|
95# |
8340-8770 |
8400-8860 |
60/90 |
0.72%/1.03% |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8330-8360 |
8420-8430 |
90/70 |
1.08%/0.84% |
|
95# |
8380-8460 |
8470-8530 |
90/70 |
1.07%/0.83% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8580-8580 |
8640-8640 |
60/60 |
0.70%/0.70% |
|
95# |
8780-8780 |
8840-8840 |
60/60 |
0.68%/0.68% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8350-8470 |
8360-8500 |
10/30 |
0.12%/0.35% |
|
95# |
8470-8580 |
8480-8610 |
10/30 |
0.12%/0.35% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8450-8650 |
8400-8500 |
-50/-150 |
-0.59%/-1.73% |
|
95# |
8600-8850 |
8550-8700 |
-50/-150 |
-0.58%/-1.69% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8400-8430 |
8300-8430 |
-100/0 |
-1.19%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8600-8600 |
8500-8600 |
-100/0 |
-1.16%/0.00% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8800-8800 |
8800-8800 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8950-8950 |
8950-8950 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions
(1) Northeast China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.18 |
Price 1.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8550-8580 |
8600-8600 |
50/20 |
0.58%/0.23% |
|
95# |
9150-9600 |
9250-9600 |
100/0 |
1.09%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
8450-8950 |
8450-9000 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.56% |
|
95# |
8750-9200 |
8750-9200 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Heilongjiang Province |
92# |
8520-8520 |
8650-8650 |
130/130 |
1.53%/1.53% |
|
95# |
8750-8750 |
8950-8950 |
200/200 |
2.29%/2.29% |
(2) East China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.18 |
Price 1.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shanghai |
92# |
8550-8700 |
8550-8750 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.57% |
|
95# |
8750-8900 |
8750-8950 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.56% |
|
|
Shandong |
92# |
8600-9100 |
8680-9100 |
80/0 |
0.93%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8800-9500 |
8830-9500 |
30/0 |
0.34%/0.00% |
|
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8780-8800 |
8810-8830 |
30/30 |
0.34%/0.34% |
|
95# |
9030-9100 |
9060-9130 |
30/30 |
0.33%/0.33% |
|
|
Zhejiang |
92# |
8700-8950 |
8680-8950 |
-20/0 |
-0.23%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-9150 |
8880-9150 |
-20/0 |
-0.22%/0.00% |
(3) Central China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.18 |
Price 1.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Anhui Province |
92# |
8800-8900 |
8800-8900 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9000-9100 |
9000-9050 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.55% |
|
|
Jiangxi Province |
92# |
8850-8900 |
8750-8870 |
-100/-30 |
-1.13%/-0.34% |
|
95# |
9100-9300 |
9000-9150 |
-100/-150 |
-1.10%/-1.61% |
|
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8750-9000 |
8750-9000 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8950-9300 |
8950-9300 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Hunan |
92# |
8750-8850 |
8750-8850 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8950-9100 |
8950-9100 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(4) North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.18 |
Price 1.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Inner Mongolia Autonomous region |
92# |
8650-9364 |
8600-9364 |
-50/0 |
-0.58%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8850-9717 |
8750-9717 |
-100/0 |
-1.13%/0.00% |
|
|
Beijing |
92# |
8850-8900 |
8900-8950 |
50/50 |
0.56%/0.56% |
|
95# |
9000-9050 |
9050-9100 |
50/50 |
0.56%/0.55% |
|
|
Tianjin |
92# |
8430-8600 |
8430-8600 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8630-8800 |
8630-8800 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Shanxi Province |
92# |
8730-9100 |
8700-8900 |
-30/-200 |
-0.34%/-2.20% |
|
95# |
9000-9400 |
9000-9300 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.06% |
|
|
Hebei |
92# |
8740-8890 |
8710-8810 |
-30/-80 |
-0.34%/-0.90% |
|
95# |
8940-9090 |
8910-9010 |
-30/-80 |
-0.34%/-0.88% |
|
|
Henan |
92# |
8900-8930 |
8920-8950 |
20/20 |
0.22%/0.22% |
|
95# |
9150-9230 |
9170-9230 |
20/0 |
0.22%/0.00% |
(5) South China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.18 |
Price 1.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Guangdong |
92# |
8800-9530 |
8850-9570 |
50/40 |
0.57%/0.42% |
|
95# |
9050-9830 |
9100-9870 |
50/40 |
0.55%/0.41% |
|
|
Hainan |
92# |
8800-8850 |
8800-9000 |
0/150 |
0.00%/1.69% |
|
95# |
9000-9050 |
9000-9200 |
0/150 |
0.00%/1.66% |
|
|
Fujian |
92# |
8800-8850 |
8850-8900 |
50/50 |
0.57%/0.56% |
|
95# |
8900-9050 |
8950-9100 |
50/50 |
0.56%/0.55% |
(6) Northwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.18 |
Price 1.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8750-9222 |
8700-9222 |
-50/0 |
-0.57%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8950-9570 |
8900-9570 |
-50/0 |
-0.56%/0.00% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
9429-9529 |
9429-9529 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9969-10069 |
9969-10069 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Gansu |
92# |
8950-9765 |
8950-9765 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9250-10334 |
9250-10334 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Xizang Autonomous region |
92# |
9600-9600 |
9600-9600 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
10050-10050 |
10050-10050 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8730-9260 |
8630-9260 |
-100/0 |
-1.15%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8930-9610 |
8830-9610 |
-100/0 |
-1.12%/0.00% |
|
|
Qinghai |
92# |
9130-9130 |
9150-9150 |
20/20 |
0.22%/0.22% |
|
95# |
9580-9580 |
9600-9600 |
20/20 |
0.21%/0.21% |
(7) Southwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.18 |
Price 1.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Yunnan |
92# |
9080-9230 |
8950-9250 |
-130/20 |
-1.43%/0.22% |
|
95# |
9530-9680 |
9550-9700 |
20/20 |
0.21%/0.21% |
|
|
Sichuan |
92# |
9150-9250 |
9150-9200 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.54% |
|
95# |
9450-9500 |
9450-9450 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.53% |
|
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
92# |
8850-9934 |
8900-9984 |
50/50 |
0.56%/0.50% |
|
95# |
9000-10510 |
9100-10560 |
100/50 |
1.11%/0.48% |
|
|
Guizhou |
92# |
8900-9050 |
8900-9050 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9100-9300 |
9280-9350 |
180/50 |
1.98%/0.54% |
|
|
Chongqing |
92# |
8880-9100 |
8880-9100 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9100-9300 |
9120-9300 |
20/0 |
0.22%/0.00% |
(8) Northeast geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.18 |
Price 1.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8400-8430 |
8300-8430 |
-100/0 |
-1.19%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8600-8600 |
8500-8600 |
-100/0 |
-1.16%/0.00% |
(9) East China geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.18 |
Price 1.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8350-8470 |
8360-8500 |
10/30 |
0.12%/0.35% |
|
95# |
8470-8580 |
8480-8610 |
10/30 |
0.12%/0.35% |
(10) Central China Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.18 |
Price 1.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8580-8580 |
8640-8640 |
60/60 |
0.70%/0.70% |
|
95# |
8780-8780 |
8840-8840 |
60/60 |
0.68%/0.68% |
(11) geochemistry in North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.18 |
Price 1.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Henan |
92# |
8330-8360 |
8420-8430 |
90/70 |
1.08%/0.84% |
|
95# |
8380-8460 |
8470-8530 |
90/70 |
1.07%/0.83% |
(12) Shandong Geolian
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.18 |
Price 1.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong |
92# |
8170-8610 |
8270-8700 |
100/90 |
1.22%/1.05% |
|
95# |
8340-8770 |
8400-8860 |
60/90 |
0.72%/1.03% |
(13) Northwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.18 |
Price 1.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8400-8650 |
8400-8650 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8550-8800 |
8550-8800 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8500-8500 |
-150/-150 |
-1.73%/-1.73% |
|
95# |
8850-8850 |
8700-8700 |
-150/-150 |
-1.69%/-1.69% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8500-8500 |
-150/-150 |
-1.73%/-1.73% |
(14) Southwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.18 |
Price 1.25 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Sichuan Province |
92# |
8800-8800 |
8800-8800 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8950-8950 |
8950-8950 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
V. Future forecast
In terms of international crude oil, US crude oil inventories have fallen more than expected, and the OPEC meeting may bring positive support. There is room for international oil prices to rise. Gasoline demand is expected to improve as the Spring Festival approaches. The overall hoarding atmosphere before the Spring Festival this year is relatively mild, the enthusiasm of traders to enter the market is not as expected, more replenishment on demand. The terminal gas station will concentrate on stock as needed before the Spring Festival, and the trading atmosphere may be improved. Coupled with the new round of retail price limit is expected to rise, the news side of the positive guidance taken together, China's gasoline prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term.
VI. Operating rate
This week (20240119-20240125), the operating rate of China's main units was 76.02%, unchanged; the operating rate of independent refineries continued to rise, with an operating rate of 67.64%, an increase of 0.51%.
VII. Plant maintenance schedule
|
Maintenance list of main refinery equipment |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Cangzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 25, 2024 |
October 25, 2024 |
|
Dalian Petrochemical Corporation |
Whole plant overhaul |
2050 |
March 15, 2024 |
May 10, 2024 |
|
Dalian West Pacific |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
450 |
May 25, 2024 |
July 13, 2024 |
|
Dushanzi petrification |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
May 15, 2024 |
July 5, 2024 |
|
Fujian Union |
Whole plant overhaul |
1200 |
November 1, 2024 |
December 20, 2024 |
|
Guangxi Petrochemical Corporation |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
October 10, 2024 |
November 30, 2024 |
|
Jilin Petrochemical Corporation |
Whole plant overhaul |
980 |
August 24, 2024 |
October 14, 2024 |
|
Jinling Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
800 |
November 15, 2024 |
December 31, 2024 |
|
Jinzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
April 10, 2024 |
May 22, 2024 |
|
Maoming Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
500 |
May 25, 2024 |
July 5, 2024 |
|
Ningxia Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
July 3, 2024 |
August 31, 2024 |
|
Qilu Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
800 |
June 10, 2024 |
July 20, 2024 |
|
Shengli Oilfield |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
September 1, 2024 |
November 1, 2024 |
|
Tahe petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
150 |
March 15, 2024 |
April 30, 2024 |
|
Tianjin Petrochemical Company |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
250 |
March 10, 2024 |
April 25, 2024 |
|
Wuhan Petrochemical Corporation |
Whole plant overhaul |
850 |
October 13, 2024 |
December 15, 2024 |
|
Changling Petrochemical Company |
Atmospheric and vacuum |
800 |
December 1, 2024 |
To be determined |
|
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
800 |
April 15, 2024 |
June 15, 2024 |
|
China Asphalt Sichuan |
Whole plant overhaul |
60 |
March 1, 2024 |
March 31, 2024 |
|
CNOOC Orient |
Whole plant overhaul |
200 |
March 15, 2024 |
May 1, 2024 |
|
Chinese Science Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
March 20, 2024 |
May 20, 2024 |
|
Maintenance list of local refinery equipment |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Aoxing petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum |
240 |
November 30, 2023 |
January 1, 2024 |
|
Liaoning Huajin |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
May 1, 2024 |
June 1, 2024 |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Atmospheric and vacuum |
300 |
March 1, 2024 |
April 1, 2024 |
|
Shenchi chemical industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
260 |
At the end of January 2024 |
April 2024 |
