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Gasoline Weekly-20240118 issue
I. International crude oil futures price
|
Date |
WTI |
Brent |
Muerban |
DME Oman |
Shanghai crude oil |
WTI/ Brent spread |
Brent / DME Oman spread |
|
20240111 |
72.02 |
77.41 |
77.68 |
77.36 |
560.2 |
-5.39 |
0.05 |
|
20240117 |
72.56 |
77.88 |
77.62 |
76.9 |
559.7 |
-5.32 |
0.98 |
|
The rate of change compared with last week |
0.76% |
0.61% |
-0.08% |
-0.59% |
-0.09% |
-1.29% |
-78.81% |
|
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. |
|||||||
II. Summary of gasoline market
This week (20240112-20240118) China's gasoline market remains relatively weak, in which the wholesale prices of the main units rise and fall, the volatility is limited, and the adjustment is mostly concentrated in 20-50 yuan / ton. The price of the factory as a whole continued to fall, falling by 20-130 yuan / ton. The main factors of the gasoline market: 1 the instability of the international crude oil situation in the Middle East continues, but the market is worried about the demand outlook, and the international oil price fluctuates slightly. 2. The demand of the Chinese market is approaching the Spring Festival, but the support of hoarding before the Spring Festival is insufficient, the rain and snow weather in the north increases during the superimposed week, the logistics and transportation is blocked, and the refinery shipping speed slows down. The performance pressure of the refinery gradually appeared in the middle and second half of the month, the refinery flexibly adjusted the quotation according to its own situation, and the preferential policy of transaction remained.
III. Gasoline price index
According to Tudor data, as of January 18, China's gasoline price index was 8804.77, up 6.32% from last week, up 0.07% from last week. The gasoline price index was 9117.22, up 7.83% from last week, or 0.09%. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both raised, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 312.45.
IV. Spot market for gasoline
1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China
|
Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 1.11 |
Price 1.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
North China region |
92# |
8400-9397 |
8450-9364 |
50/-33 |
0.60%/-0.35% |
|
95# |
8600-9752 |
8650-9719 |
50/-33 |
0.58%/-0.34% |
|
|
South China |
92# |
8700-9550 |
8700-9530 |
0/-20 |
0.00%/-0.21% |
|
95# |
8900-9850 |
8900-9830 |
0/-20 |
0.00%/-0.20% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8750-9150 |
8730-9200 |
-20/50 |
-0.23%/0.55% |
|
95# |
8950-9450 |
8950-9500 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.53% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8550-9100 |
8550-9100 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-9500 |
8750-9500 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8550-9800 |
8750-9765 |
200/-35 |
2.34%/-0.36% |
|
95# |
9000-10050 |
8950-10050 |
-50/0 |
-0.56%/0.00% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8880-9200 |
8850-9250 |
-30/50 |
-0.34%/0.54% |
|
95# |
9080-9650 |
9000-9680 |
-80/30 |
-0.88%/0.31% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8580-9150 |
8580-9150 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8730-9600 |
8730-9600 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 1.11 |
Price 1.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
8250-8700 |
8170-8610 |
-80/-90 |
-0.97%/-1.03% |
|
95# |
8420-8900 |
8340-8770 |
-80/-130 |
-0.95%/-1.46% |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8440-8450 |
8330-8360 |
-110/-90 |
-1.30%/-1.07% |
|
95# |
8490-8550 |
8380-8460 |
-110/-90 |
-1.30%/-1.05% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8790-8790 |
8580-8580 |
-210/-210 |
-2.39%/-2.39% |
|
95# |
8990-8990 |
8780-8780 |
-210/-210 |
-2.34%/-2.34% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8370-8570 |
8350-8470 |
-20/-100 |
-0.24%/-1.17% |
|
95# |
8490-8680 |
8470-8580 |
-20/-100 |
-0.24%/-1.15% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8450-8800 |
8450-8650 |
0/-150 |
0.00%/-1.70% |
|
95# |
8600-9000 |
8600-8850 |
0/-150 |
0.00%/-1.67% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8380-8400 |
8400-8430 |
20/30 |
0.24%/0.36% |
|
95# |
8600-8600 |
8600-8600 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8900-8900 |
8800-8800 |
-100/-100 |
-1.12%/-1.12% |
|
95# |
9050-9050 |
8950-8950 |
-100/-100 |
-1.10%/-1.10% |
|
2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions
(1) Northeast China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.11 |
Price 1.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8550-8580 |
8550-8580 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9150-9600 |
9150-9600 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
8450-8950 |
8450-8950 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-9200 |
8750-9200 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Heilongjiang Province |
92# |
8520-8520 |
8520-8520 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-8750 |
8750-8750 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(2) East China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.11 |
Price 1.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shanghai |
92# |
8550-8700 |
8550-8700 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-8900 |
8750-8900 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Shandong |
92# |
8990-9100 |
8600-9100 |
-390/0 |
-4.34%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9140-9500 |
8800-9500 |
-340/0 |
-3.72%/0.00% |
|
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8750-8770 |
8780-8800 |
30/30 |
0.34%/0.34% |
|
95# |
9000-9070 |
9030-9100 |
30/30 |
0.33%/0.33% |
|
|
Zhejiang |
92# |
8650-8900 |
8700-8950 |
50/50 |
0.58%/0.56% |
|
95# |
8850-9100 |
8900-9150 |
50/50 |
0.56%/0.55% |
(3) Central China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.11 |
Price 1.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Anhui Province |
92# |
8800-8870 |
8800-8900 |
0/30 |
0.00%/0.34% |
|
95# |
9000-9070 |
9000-9100 |
0/30 |
0.00%/0.33% |
|
|
Jiangxi Province |
92# |
8850-8900 |
8850-8900 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9050-9300 |
9100-9300 |
50/0 |
0.55%/0.00% |
|
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8750-9000 |
8750-9000 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8950-9300 |
8950-9300 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Hunan |
92# |
8750-8850 |
8750-8850 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8950-9100 |
8950-9100 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(4) North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.11 |
Price 1.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Inner Mongolia Autonomous region |
92# |
8650-9397 |
8650-9364 |
0/-33 |
0.00%/-0.35% |
|
95# |
8850-9752 |
8850-9717 |
0/-35 |
0.00%/-0.36% |
|
|
Beijing |
92# |
8950-9000 |
8850-8900 |
-100/-100 |
-1.12%/-1.11% |
|
95# |
9100-9150 |
9000-9050 |
-100/-100 |
-1.10%/-1.09% |
|
|
Tianjin |
92# |
8400-8700 |
8430-8600 |
30/-100 |
0.36%/-1.15% |
|
95# |
8600-8900 |
8630-8800 |
30/-100 |
0.35%/-1.12% |
|
|
Shanxi Province |
92# |
8730-9100 |
8730-9100 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9000-9400 |
9000-9400 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Hebei |
92# |
8720-8890 |
8740-8890 |
20/0 |
0.23%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8920-9090 |
8940-9090 |
20/0 |
0.22%/0.00% |
|
|
Henan |
92# |
8870-8930 |
8900-8930 |
30/0 |
0.34%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9120-9230 |
9150-9230 |
30/0 |
0.33%/0.00% |
(5) South China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.11 |
Price 1.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Guangdong |
92# |
8800-9550 |
8800-9530 |
0/-20 |
0.00%/-0.21% |
|
95# |
9050-9850 |
9050-9830 |
0/-20 |
0.00%/-0.20% |
|
|
Hainan |
92# |
8850-8850 |
8800-8850 |
-50/0 |
-0.56%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9050-9050 |
9000-9050 |
-50/0 |
-0.55%/0.00% |
|
|
Fujian |
92# |
8800-8850 |
8800-8850 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-9050 |
8900-9050 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(6) Northwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.11 |
Price 1.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8800-9275 |
8750-9222 |
-50/-53 |
-0.57%/-0.57% |
|
95# |
9000-9625 |
8950-9570 |
-50/-55 |
-0.56%/-0.57% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
9482-9582 |
9429-9529 |
-53/-53 |
-0.56%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
10025-10125 |
9969-10069 |
-56/-56 |
-0.56%/-0.55% |
|
|
Gansu |
92# |
8850-9818 |
8950-9765 |
100/-53 |
1.13%/-0.54% |
|
95# |
9250-10399 |
9250-10334 |
0/-65 |
0.00%/-0.63% |
|
|
Xizang Autonomous region |
92# |
9600-9600 |
9600-9600 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
10050-10050 |
10050-10050 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8800-9260 |
8730-9260 |
-70/0 |
-0.80%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9000-9610 |
8930-9610 |
-70/0 |
-0.78%/0.00% |
|
|
Qinghai |
92# |
9200-9200 |
9130-9130 |
-70/-70 |
-0.76%/-0.76% |
|
95# |
9650-9650 |
9580-9580 |
-70/-70 |
-0.73%/-0.73% |
(7) Southwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.11 |
Price 1.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Yunnan |
92# |
9050-9200 |
9080-9230 |
30/30 |
0.33%/0.33% |
|
95# |
9450-9650 |
9530-9680 |
80/30 |
0.85%/0.31% |
|
|
Sichuan |
92# |
9000-9200 |
9150-9250 |
150/50 |
1.67%/0.54% |
|
95# |
9500-9550 |
9450-9500 |
-50/-50 |
-0.53%/-0.52% |
|
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
92# |
8900-9987 |
8850-9934 |
-50/-53 |
-0.56%/-0.53% |
|
95# |
9100-10570 |
9000-10510 |
-100/-60 |
-1.10%/-0.57% |
|
|
Guizhou |
92# |
8950-9100 |
8900-9050 |
-50/-50 |
-0.56%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
9400-9400 |
9100-9300 |
-300/-100 |
-3.19%/-1.06% |
|
|
Chongqing |
92# |
8880-9100 |
8880-9100 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9100-9300 |
9100-9300 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(8) Northeast geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.11 |
Price 1.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8380-8400 |
8400-8430 |
20/30 |
0.24%/0.36% |
|
95# |
8600-8600 |
8600-8600 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(9) East China geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.11 |
Price 1.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8370-8570 |
8350-8470 |
-20/-100 |
-0.24%/-1.17% |
|
95# |
8490-8680 |
8470-8580 |
-20/-100 |
-0.24%/-1.15% |
(10) Central China Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.11 |
Price 1.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8790-8790 |
8580-8580 |
-210/-210 |
-2.39%/-2.39% |
|
95# |
8990-8990 |
8780-8780 |
-210/-210 |
-2.34%/-2.34% |
(11) geochemistry in North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.11 |
Price 1.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Henan |
92# |
8440-8450 |
8330-8360 |
-110/-90 |
-1.30%/-1.07% |
|
95# |
8490-8550 |
8380-8460 |
-110/-90 |
-1.30%/-1.05% |
(12) Shandong Geolian
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.11 |
Price 1.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong |
92# |
8250-8700 |
8170-8610 |
-80/-90 |
-0.97%/-1.03% |
|
95# |
8420-8900 |
8340-8770 |
-80/-130 |
-0.95%/-1.46% |
(13) Northwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.11 |
Price 1.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8450-8600 |
8400-8650 |
-50/50 |
-0.59%/0.58% |
|
95# |
8600-8750 |
8550-8800 |
-50/50 |
-0.58%/0.57% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8800-8800 |
8650-8650 |
-150/-150 |
-1.70%/-1.70% |
|
95# |
9000-9000 |
8850-8850 |
-150/-150 |
-1.67%/-1.67% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
8800-8800 |
8650-8650 |
-150/-150 |
-1.70%/-1.70% |
(14) Southwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 1.11 |
Price 1.18 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Sichuan Province |
92# |
8900-8900 |
8800-8800 |
-100/-100 |
-1.12%/-1.12% |
|
95# |
9050-9050 |
8950-8950 |
-100/-100 |
-1.10%/-1.10% |
V. Future forecast
Both positive and negative factors exist in international crude oil, and the market continues to weigh the prospects of supply and demand. On the whole, the recent trend is relatively narrow, shock operation, and limited guidance to the market. On the supply side, the operating rate of Chinese refineries this week is relatively stable, and there are no maintenance refineries. At present, the main factor affecting China's gasoline market is gasoline demand, the long-awaited centralized operation of hoarding before the Spring Festival has not yet arrived, the purchase of rigid demand in the middle and lower reaches is mainly, and the unit quantity is limited. Most of the market wait-and-see attitude of caution, some low-level stock. However, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the travel radius of residents and the frequency of use of private cars have increased, and gasoline demand is expected to improve. Taken together, it is expected that China's gasoline prices may stabilize and fluctuate in the short term.
VI. Operating rate
This week (20240112-20240118), the operating rate of China's main units was 76.02%, unchanged; the operating rate of independent refineries increased slightly, with an operating rate of 67.13%, an increase of 0.72%.
VII. Plant maintenance schedule
|
Maintenance list of main refinery equipment |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Cangzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 25, 2024 |
October 25, 2024 |
|
Dalian Petrochemical Corporation |
Whole plant overhaul |
2050 |
March 15, 2024 |
May 10, 2024 |
|
Dalian West Pacific |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
450 |
May 25, 2024 |
July 13, 2024 |
|
Dushanzi petrification |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
May 15, 2024 |
July 5, 2024 |
|
Fujian Union |
Whole plant overhaul |
1200 |
November 1, 2024 |
December 20, 2024 |
|
Guangxi Petrochemical Corporation |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
October 10, 2024 |
November 30, 2024 |
|
Jilin Petrochemical Corporation |
Whole plant overhaul |
980 |
August 24, 2024 |
October 14, 2024 |
|
Jinling Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
800 |
November 15, 2024 |
December 31, 2024 |
|
Jinzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
April 10, 2024 |
May 22, 2024 |
|
Maoming Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
500 |
May 25, 2024 |
July 5, 2024 |
|
Ningxia Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
July 3, 2024 |
August 31, 2024 |
|
Qilu Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
800 |
June 10, 2024 |
July 20, 2024 |
|
Shengli Oilfield |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
September 1, 2024 |
November 1, 2024 |
|
Tahe petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
150 |
March 15, 2024 |
April 30, 2024 |
|
Tianjin Petrochemical Company |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
250 |
March 10, 2024 |
April 25, 2024 |
|
Wuhan Petrochemical Corporation |
Whole plant overhaul |
850 |
October 13, 2024 |
December 15, 2024 |
|
Changling Petrochemical Company |
Atmospheric and vacuum |
800 |
December 1, 2024 |
To be determined |
|
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
800 |
April 15, 2024 |
June 15, 2024 |
|
China Asphalt Sichuan |
Whole plant overhaul |
60 |
March 1, 2024 |
March 31, 2024 |
|
CNOOC Orient |
Whole plant overhaul |
200 |
March 15, 2024 |
May 1, 2024 |
|
Chinese Science Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
March 20, 2024 |
May 20, 2024 |
|
Maintenance list of local refinery equipment |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Aoxing petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum |
240 |
November 30, 2023 |
January 1, 2024 |
|
Liaoning Huajin |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
May 1, 2024 |
June 1, 2024 |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Atmospheric and vacuum |
300 |
March 1, 2024 |
April 1, 2024 |
