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Gasoline Weekly-20240104 issue
I. International crude oil futures price
|
Date |
WTI |
Brent |
Muerban |
DME Oman |
Shanghai crude oil |
WTI/ Brent spread |
Brent / DME Oman spread |
|
20231228 |
71.77 |
78.39 |
79.2 |
79 |
568.1 |
-6.62 |
-0.61 |
|
20240103 |
72.7 |
78.25 |
78.26 |
75.21 |
548.5 |
-5.55 |
3.04 |
|
The rate of change compared with last week |
1.25% |
-0.18% |
-1.19% |
-4.72% |
-3.43% |
-19.31% |
-618.64% |
|
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. |
|||||||
II. Summary of gasoline market
This week (20231229-20240104), the rise in wholesale gasoline prices in various regions of China slowed down, mostly concentrated in 30-150 yuan / ton; high-end prices fell significantly in some areas. The price of the factory as a whole rose, an increase of 50-200 yuan / ton. The main factors of the gasoline market: 1 the market is still worried about the fundamentals of the crude oil market, and the outlook for the global economy may be poor. Crude oil cost guidelines are limited. 2. The Chinese market is supported by New Year's Day's holiday this week. New Year's Day's stock hoarding was basically in place before the holiday last week. In addition to rigid demand procurement after the middle and lower reaches of the holiday this week, refinery production and sales data are good, and market trading is relatively active. At present, the pressure of refinery performance task is relatively small, and with the implementation of the retail price limit of refined oil, most refineries follow the upward adjustment. In addition, some of the main units have a good start after the festival, and there are preferential policies for the transaction. 3. The first batch of export quotas issued in 2024 totaled 19 million tons, up 58% from the previous month, boosting the gasoline market to a certain extent.
III. Gasoline price index
According to Tudor data, as of January 4, China's gasoline price index was 8814.25, up 16.02% from last week, or 0.18% higher than last week. The gasoline price index was 9120.09, up 5.41% from last week, or 0.06%. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both raised, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 305.84.
IV. Spot market for gasoline
1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China
|
Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 12.28 |
Price 1.4 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
North China region |
92# |
8430-9600 |
8460-9600 |
30/0 |
0.36%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8630-9900 |
8660-9900 |
30/0 |
0.35%/0.00% |
|
|
South China |
92# |
8700-9450 |
8700-9500 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.53% |
|
95# |
8900-9750 |
8900-9800 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.51% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8650-9050 |
8700-9170 |
50/120 |
0.58%/1.33% |
|
95# |
8850-9350 |
8900-9470 |
50/120 |
0.56%/1.28% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8500-8950 |
8550-9100 |
50/150 |
0.59%/1.68% |
|
95# |
8600-9600 |
8750-9500 |
150/-100 |
1.74%/-1.04% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8550-9600 |
8550-9800 |
0/200 |
0.00%/2.08% |
|
95# |
8750-9860 |
9000-10050 |
250/190 |
2.86%/1.93% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8800-9250 |
8900-9250 |
100/0 |
1.14%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9000-9600 |
9100-9700 |
100/100 |
1.11%/1.04% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8400-8950 |
8580-8950 |
180/0 |
2.14%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8650-9950 |
8650-9600 |
0/-350 |
0.00%/-3.52% |
|
|
Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 12.28 |
Price 1.4 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
8200-8650 |
8350-8700 |
150/50 |
1.83%/0.58% |
|
95# |
8300-8740 |
8450-8860 |
150/120 |
1.81%/1.37% |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8390-8500 |
8500-8570 |
110/70 |
1.31%/0.82% |
|
95# |
8490-8550 |
8600-8620 |
110/70 |
1.30%/0.82% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8770-8770 |
70/70 |
0.80%/0.80% |
|
95# |
8900-8900 |
8970-8970 |
70/70 |
0.79%/0.79% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8300-8620 |
8420-8620 |
120/0 |
1.45%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8420-8750 |
8540-8750 |
120/0 |
1.43%/0.00% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8250-8650 |
8500-8800 |
250/150 |
3.03%/1.73% |
|
95# |
8500-8850 |
8700-9000 |
200/150 |
2.35%/1.69% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8300-8350 |
8400-8400 |
100/50 |
1.20%/0.60% |
|
95# |
8500-8500 |
8600-8600 |
100/100 |
1.18%/1.18% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8800-8800 |
8950-8950 |
150/150 |
1.70%/1.70% |
|
95# |
8950-8950 |
9100-9100 |
150/150 |
1.68%/1.68% |
|
2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions
(1) Northeast China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.28 |
Price 1.4 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8450-8500 |
8630-8650 |
180/150 |
2.13%/1.76% |
|
95# |
9250-9600 |
9200-9600 |
-50/0 |
-0.54%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
8445-8950 |
8475-8950 |
30/0 |
0.36%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8650-9300 |
8900-9200 |
250/-100 |
2.89%/-1.08% |
|
|
Heilongjiang Province |
92# |
8400-8400 |
8520-8520 |
120/120 |
1.43%/1.43% |
|
95# |
8650-8650 |
8750-8750 |
100/100 |
1.16%/1.16% |
(2) East China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.28 |
Price 1.4 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shanghai |
92# |
8500-8700 |
8550-8700 |
50/0 |
0.59%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8700-8900 |
8750-8900 |
50/0 |
0.57%/0.00% |
|
|
Shandong |
92# |
8800-8890 |
9090-9100 |
290/210 |
3.30%/2.36% |
|
95# |
8940-9100 |
9240-9500 |
300/400 |
3.36%/4.40% |
|
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8750-8750 |
8750-8800 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.57% |
|
95# |
9000-9050 |
9000-9100 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.55% |
|
|
Zhejiang |
92# |
8700-8950 |
8700-8900 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.56% |
|
95# |
8900-9150 |
8900-9100 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.55% |
(3) Central China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.28 |
Price 1.4 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Anhui Province |
92# |
8650-8770 |
8700-8870 |
50/100 |
0.58%/1.14% |
|
95# |
8850-8970 |
8900-9070 |
50/100 |
0.56%/1.11% |
|
|
Jiangxi Province |
92# |
8850-8950 |
8900-9000 |
50/50 |
0.56%/0.56% |
|
95# |
9150-9250 |
9150-9350 |
0/100 |
0.00%/1.08% |
|
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8750-9000 |
8750-9000 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8950-9300 |
8950-9300 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Hunan |
92# |
8730-8800 |
8780-8850 |
50/50 |
0.57%/0.57% |
|
95# |
8930-9050 |
8980-9100 |
50/50 |
0.56%/0.55% |
(4) North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.28 |
Price 1.4 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Inner Mongolia Autonomous region |
92# |
8600-9185 |
8700-9397 |
100/212 |
1.16%/2.31% |
|
95# |
8800-9532 |
8900-9752 |
100/220 |
1.14%/2.31% |
|
|
Beijing |
92# |
8850-8900 |
9100-9150 |
250/250 |
2.82%/2.81% |
|
95# |
9050-9100 |
9300-9350 |
250/250 |
2.76%/2.75% |
|
|
Tianjin |
92# |
8430-8500 |
8460-8800 |
30/300 |
0.36%/3.53% |
|
95# |
8700-8750 |
8660-9000 |
-40/250 |
-0.46%/2.86% |
|
|
Shanxi Province |
92# |
8700-9680 |
8750-9680 |
50/0 |
0.57%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-9900 |
8950-9900 |
50/0 |
0.56%/0.00% |
|
|
Hebei |
92# |
8700-8780 |
8730-8930 |
30/150 |
0.34%/1.71% |
|
95# |
8900-8970 |
8970-9130 |
70/160 |
0.79%/1.78% |
|
|
Henan |
92# |
8920-8980 |
8950-9010 |
30/30 |
0.34%/0.33% |
|
95# |
9250-9280 |
9200-9280 |
-50/0 |
-0.54%/0.00% |
(5) South China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.28 |
Price 1.4 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Guangdong |
92# |
8650-9300 |
8500-9500 |
-150/200 |
-1.73%/2.15% |
|
95# |
8900-9600 |
9200-9800 |
300/200 |
3.37%/2.08% |
|
|
Hainan |
92# |
8750-9450 |
8750-8900 |
0/-550 |
0.00%/-5.82% |
|
95# |
9100-9750 |
8950-9100 |
-150/-650 |
-1.65%/-6.67% |
|
|
Fujian |
92# |
8750-8900 |
8700-8800 |
-50/-100 |
-0.57%/-1.12% |
|
95# |
8950-9100 |
8900-9050 |
-50/-50 |
-0.56%/-0.55% |
(6) Northwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.28 |
Price 1.4 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8750-9121 |
8800-8975 |
50/-146 |
0.57%/-1.60% |
|
95# |
8950-9466 |
9000-9325 |
50/-141 |
0.56%/-1.49% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
9270-9370 |
9482-9582 |
212/212 |
2.29%/2.26% |
|
95# |
9900-9900 |
10025-10125 |
125/225 |
1.26%/2.27% |
|
|
Gansu |
92# |
8850-9606 |
8850-9606 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9050-10166 |
9050-10166 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Xizang Autonomous region |
92# |
9470-9470 |
9600-9600 |
130/130 |
1.37%/1.37% |
|
95# |
9920-9920 |
10050-10050 |
130/130 |
1.31%/1.31% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8780-9330 |
8800-9260 |
20/-70 |
0.23%/-0.75% |
|
95# |
8850-9680 |
9130-9610 |
280/-70 |
3.16%/-0.72% |
|
|
Qinghai |
92# |
9100-9100 |
9130-9130 |
30/30 |
0.33%/0.33% |
|
95# |
9550-9550 |
9580-9580 |
30/30 |
0.31%/0.31% |
(7) Southwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.28 |
Price 1.4 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Yunnan |
92# |
9050-9200 |
9100-9250 |
50/50 |
0.55%/0.54% |
|
95# |
9500-9650 |
9550-9700 |
50/50 |
0.53%/0.52% |
|
|
Sichuan |
92# |
8900-9150 |
9000-9180 |
100/30 |
1.12%/0.33% |
|
95# |
9250-9300 |
9350-9480 |
100/180 |
1.08%/1.94% |
|
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
92# |
8900-9775 |
8900-9987 |
0/212 |
0.00%/2.17% |
|
95# |
9050-10346 |
9100-10570 |
50/224 |
0.55%/2.17% |
|
|
Guizhou |
92# |
9000-9100 |
9000-9000 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.10% |
|
95# |
9050-9400 |
9300-9300 |
250/-100 |
2.76%/-1.06% |
|
|
Chongqing |
92# |
8850-9200 |
8950-9100 |
100/-100 |
1.13%/-1.09% |
|
95# |
9150-9500 |
9300-9300 |
150/-200 |
1.64%/-2.11% |
(8) Northeast geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.28 |
Price 1.4 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8300-8350 |
8400-8400 |
100/50 |
1.20%/0.60% |
|
95# |
8500-8500 |
8600-8600 |
100/100 |
1.18%/1.18% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(9) East China geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.28 |
Price 1.4 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8300-8620 |
8420-8620 |
120/0 |
1.45%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8420-8750 |
8540-8750 |
120/0 |
1.43%/0.00% |
(10) Central China Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.28 |
Price 1.4 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8770-8770 |
70/70 |
0.80%/0.80% |
|
95# |
8900-8900 |
8970-8970 |
70/70 |
0.79%/0.79% |
(11) geochemistry in North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.28 |
Price 1.4 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Henan |
92# |
8390-8500 |
8500-8570 |
110/70 |
1.31%/0.82% |
|
95# |
8490-8550 |
8600-8620 |
110/70 |
1.30%/0.82% |
(12) Shandong Geolian
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.28 |
Price 1.4 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong |
92# |
8200-8650 |
8350-8700 |
150/50 |
1.83%/0.58% |
|
95# |
8300-8740 |
8450-8860 |
150/120 |
1.81%/1.37% |
(13) Northwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.28 |
Price 1.4 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8350-8450 |
8550-8650 |
200/200 |
2.40%/2.37% |
|
95# |
8500-8600 |
8700-8800 |
200/200 |
2.35%/2.33% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8800-8800 |
150/150 |
1.73%/1.73% |
|
95# |
8850-8850 |
9000-9000 |
150/150 |
1.69%/1.69% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8800-8800 |
150/150 |
1.73%/1.73% |
(14) Southwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.28 |
Price 1.4 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Sichuan Province |
92# |
8800-8800 |
8950-8950 |
150/150 |
1.70%/1.70% |
|
95# |
8950-8950 |
9100-9100 |
150/150 |
1.68%/1.68% |
V. Future forecast
From the perspective of international crude oil, OPEC+ once again expressed its determination to reduce production, adding that US commercial crude oil inventories began to decline, and crude oil supply expectations were tightened; however, demand-side performance was still relatively weak. In addition, we need to pay more attention to the development of the Red Sea event and the release of EIA data, which may bring new guidelines. The new round of refined oil retail price limit is expected to be reduced, the news is a negative guide. However, traders may have the phenomenon of replenishing goods on bargains and start the pre-Spring Festival hoarding cycle ahead of time. Approaching the Spring Festival, gasoline demand is expected to improve, coupled with the main unit price mentality is heavy, stable prices. Taken together, gasoline prices in China are expected to be strong in the short term, and there are still upward expectations.
VI. Operating rate
This week (20231229-20240104), the operating rate of main units was 75.94%, down 0.56%, while that of independent refineries was 64.88%, an increase of 0.89% .
Supply and demand & profit
Supply and demand: this week, China's oil product output is 3.194 million tons, China's main output is 2.2174 million tons, China's independent refineries output 976600 tons, China's independent refinery gasoline sales of 921600 tons, China's commercial inventory of 13.1107 million tons.
Profit: main comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 508.8 yuan / ton, georefining comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 503.23 yuan / ton, atmospheric and vacuum weekly production gross profit 324 yuan / ton, FCC weekly production gross profit-120yuan / ton, delayed coking weekly production gross profit 446.28 yuan / ton.
VIII. Plant maintenance schedule
|
Maintenance list of main refinery equipment |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Cangzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 25, 2024 |
October 25, 2024 |
|
Dalian Petrochemical Corporation |
Whole plant overhaul |
2050 |
March 15, 2024 |
May 10, 2024 |
|
Dalian West Pacific |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
450 |
May 25, 2024 |
July 13, 2024 |
|
Dushanzi petrification |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
May 15, 2024 |
July 5, 2024 |
|
Fujian Union |
Whole plant overhaul |
1200 |
November 1, 2024 |
December 20, 2024 |
|
Guangxi Petrochemical Corporation |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
October 10, 2024 |
November 30, 2024 |
|
Jilin Petrochemical Corporation |
Whole plant overhaul |
980 |
August 24, 2024 |
October 14, 2024 |
|
Jinling Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
800 |
November 15, 2024 |
December 31, 2024 |
|
Jinzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
April 10, 2024 |
May 22, 2024 |
|
Maoming Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
500 |
May 25, 2024 |
July 5, 2024 |
|
Ningxia Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
July 3, 2024 |
August 31, 2024 |
|
Qilu Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
800 |
June 10, 2024 |
July 20, 2024 |
|
Shengli Oilfield |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
September 1, 2024 |
November 1, 2024 |
|
Tahe petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
150 |
March 15, 2024 |
April 30, 2024 |
|
Tianjin Petrochemical Company |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
250 |
March 10, 2024 |
April 25, 2024 |
|
Wuhan Petrochemical Corporation |
Whole plant overhaul |
850 |
October 13, 2024 |
December 15, 2024 |
|
Changling Petrochemical Company |
Atmospheric and vacuum |
800 |
December 1, 2024 |
To be determined |
|
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
800 |
April 15, 2024 |
June 15, 2024 |
|
China Asphalt Sichuan |
Whole plant overhaul |
60 |
March 1, 2024 |
March 31, 2024 |
|
CNOOC Orient |
Whole plant overhaul |
200 |
March 15, 2024 |
May 1, 2024 |
|
Chinese Science Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
March 20, 2024 |
May 20, 2024 |
|
Maintenance list of local refinery equipment |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Aoxing petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum |
240 |
November 30, 2023 |
January 1, 2024 |
|
Liaoning Huajin |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
May 1, 2024 |
June 1, 2024 |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Atmospheric and vacuum |
300 |
March 1, 2024 |
April 1, 2024 |
