In December 2023, the methanol market price index averaged 2275.33 per month, up 15.11 from November and 0.66 per cent month-on-month.

Chinese market: this month, methanol market prices rose slightly and then fluctuated back down. At the beginning of this month, many sets of air head devices in southwest China stopped as scheduled, coupled with the parking maintenance of some devices in the field, and with the support of reduced supply, the market prices in the region rose narrowly, but affected by the weak demand downstream, the increase in market prices was relatively limited. In the middle of the month, as snow fell in many parts of the north, transportation on some roads was restricted, freight prices continued to rise, shipments from manufacturers in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi were blocked, and market prices fluctuated under the influence of supply pressure. however, under the influence of blocked supply inflows, quotation shocks rose, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market was better. After entering the second ten days of the month, with the gradual easing of transport restrictions, freight prices continued to fall, and the futures market continued to run weakly, and manufacturers' quotations began to fall. Although New Year's Day holiday was interspersed at the end of the month, the downstream demand was weak, and the enthusiasm of stock preparation before the festival was general.

Port market: this month, the price of the port spot market is adjusted with the market, and the futures market remains low and volatile. During the month, the inventory in the port market showed a slight trend of destocking, and during some time, due to the influence of the weather, the arrival and unloading speed of imported cargo slowed down, and the port inventory decreased compared with the previous period. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of downstream equipment and the arrival of imported shipments.

Future forecast: cost: recently, the fluctuation of raw material coal price is limited, although the demand for terminal power plant has been released, but the current port market inventory maintains a relatively high position, under the influence of high inventory, the coal market price rising power is insufficient, the market operators wait and see mood is strong, at present, it is expected that short-term coal market prices still maintain range volatility, the cost side of methanol support in general. In terms of supply: after entering the middle of January, the early air head devices stopped due to gas restrictions have plans to restart, at that time, the market supply in the region may increase significantly, and Henan Zhongxin, Henan Dahua and other devices plan to restart after New Year's Day. Yanzhou Mining Guohong New Year's Day plans to stop and repair, the market supply is expected to increase to a certain extent, in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. From the port point of view, recently, the arrival volume of imported cargo has always maintained a high level, but at present, some devices in Iran have been overhauled due to gas restrictions, and the supply in the international market may have been reduced, but from the perspective of the transportation cycle, the actual reduction in imports may be reflected in around February-March, and imports are expected to remain high in January. Demand: at present, the overall start-up of downstream olefins remains relatively high, but in the later stage, the storage and shutdown plans of some olefin units in East China are expected to start or decline next month, and methanol consumption will decrease synchronously. From the perspective of the traditional downstream market, with the arrival of winter, some areas in the field are more severely affected by environmental inspection, downstream market starts or further down, the overall demand side of methanol consumption is difficult to increase significantly. Generally speaking, at present, the cost-side coal supports the methanol market generally, coupled with the fact that there are more restart devices next month, the Chinese market starts or increases widely, and the demand performance of the terminal downstream market is still poor at the present stage. It is difficult for the demand side to improve methanol support in the short term. Under the influence of the contradiction between supply and demand, it is expected that the methanol market may continue to be weak and volatile in January. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the prices of crude oil and coal, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.