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Gasoline Special issue-20231228 issue
I. International crude oil futures price
|
Date |
WTI |
Brent |
Muerban |
DME Oman |
Shanghai crude oil |
WTI/ Brent spread |
Brent / DME Oman spread |
|
20231220 |
74.22 |
79.7 |
79.54 |
78.98 |
559.8 |
-5.48 |
0.72 |
|
20231227 |
74.11 |
79.65 |
79.1 |
80.24 |
572 |
-5.54 |
-0.59 |
|
The rate of change compared with last week |
-0.15% |
-0.06% |
-0.55% |
1.60% |
2.18% |
1.09% |
-181.94% |
|
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. |
|||||||
II. Summary of gasoline market
This week (20231222-20231228) China's regional gasoline market prices rose significantly, of which the main wholesale prices increased by 50,200 yuan per ton, and the factory price rose by 100,270 yuan per ton. The main factors of the gasoline market are as follows: 1. Shipping in the Red Sea region has gradually resumed, the impact of geo-events has weakened, and international oil prices have fallen. 2. The Chinese market is approaching New Year's Day's holiday, coupled with the rising temperature in the north, smooth logistics and transportation, strong pre-festival hoarding atmosphere in the middle and lower reaches, and hot market trading. In addition, New Year's Day during the high-speed dangerous chemicals vehicles traffic restrictions, replenishment operations are more concentrated this week. The annual task completion of the main unit is better, Poly mentality is in the majority, independent refineries are expected to increase the processing load, and the overall capacity utilization rate in China has been raised this week.
III. Gasoline price index
According to Tudor data, as of December 28, China's gasoline price index stood at 8798.23, up 131.15 from last week, an increase of 1.51 per cent, or 132.21, or 1.47 per cent, from last week. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both raised, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 316.46.
IV. Spot market for gasoline
1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China
|
Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 12.21 |
Price 12.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
North China region |
92# |
8250-9600 |
8430-9600 |
180/0 |
2.18%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8430-9900 |
8630-9900 |
200/0 |
2.37%/0.00% |
|
|
South China |
92# |
8600-9300 |
8700-9450 |
100/150 |
1.16%/1.61% |
|
95# |
8800-9600 |
8900-9750 |
100/150 |
1.14%/1.56% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8550-8850 |
8650-9050 |
100/200 |
1.17%/2.26% |
|
95# |
8750-9150 |
8850-9350 |
100/200 |
1.14%/2.19% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8400-9300 |
8500-8950 |
100/-350 |
1.19%/-3.76% |
|
95# |
8600-9600 |
8600-9600 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8350-9600 |
8550-9600 |
200/0 |
2.40%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8500-9860 |
8750-9860 |
250/0 |
2.94%/0.00% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8630-9000 |
8800-9250 |
170/250 |
1.97%/2.78% |
|
95# |
8830-9350 |
9000-9600 |
170/250 |
1.93%/2.67% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8350-8800 |
8400-8950 |
50/150 |
0.60%/1.70% |
|
95# |
8600-9800 |
8650-9950 |
50/150 |
0.58%/1.53% |
|
|
Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 12.21 |
Price 12.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
8050-8400 |
8200-8650 |
150/250 |
1.86%/2.98% |
|
95# |
8200-8540 |
8300-8740 |
100/200 |
1.22%/2.34% |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8160-8250 |
8390-8500 |
230/250 |
2.82%/3.03% |
|
95# |
8210-8350 |
8490-8550 |
280/200 |
3.41%/2.40% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8430-8430 |
8700-8700 |
270/270 |
3.20%/3.20% |
|
95# |
8630-8630 |
8900-8900 |
270/270 |
3.13%/3.13% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8200-8390 |
8300-8620 |
100/230 |
1.22%/2.74% |
|
95# |
8320-8520 |
8420-8750 |
100/230 |
1.20%/2.70% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8050-8350 |
8250-8650 |
200/300 |
2.48%/3.59% |
|
95# |
8500-8550 |
8500-8850 |
0/300 |
0.00%/3.51% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8250-8300 |
8300-8350 |
50/50 |
0.61%/0.60% |
|
95# |
8450-8500 |
8500-8500 |
50/0 |
0.59%/0.00% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8600-8600 |
8800-8800 |
200/200 |
2.33%/2.33% |
|
95# |
8750-8750 |
8950-8950 |
200/200 |
2.29%/2.29% |
|
2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions
(1) Northeast China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.21 |
Price 12.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8400-8450 |
8450-8500 |
50/50 |
0.60%/0.59% |
|
95# |
9200-9600 |
9250-9600 |
50/0 |
0.54%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
8350-8800 |
8445-8950 |
95/150 |
1.14%/1.70% |
|
95# |
8650-9300 |
8650-9300 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Heilongjiang Province |
92# |
8350-8350 |
8400-8400 |
50/50 |
0.60%/0.60% |
|
95# |
8650-8650 |
8650-8650 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(2) East China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.21 |
Price 12.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shanghai |
92# |
8400-8600 |
8500-8700 |
100/100 |
1.19%/1.16% |
|
95# |
8600-8800 |
8700-8900 |
100/100 |
1.16%/1.14% |
|
|
Shandong |
92# |
8790-9300 |
8800-8890 |
10/-410 |
0.11%/-4.41% |
|
95# |
8940-9600 |
8940-9100 |
0/-500 |
0.00%/-5.21% |
|
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8600-8630 |
8750-8750 |
150/120 |
1.74%/1.39% |
|
95# |
8850-8930 |
9000-9050 |
150/120 |
1.69%/1.34% |
|
|
Zhejiang |
92# |
8650-8850 |
8700-8950 |
50/100 |
0.58%/1.13% |
|
95# |
8850-9050 |
8900-9150 |
50/100 |
0.56%/1.10% |
(3) Central China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.21 |
Price 12.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Anhui Province |
92# |
8550-8700 |
8650-8770 |
100/70 |
1.17%/0.80% |
|
95# |
8700-8850 |
8850-8970 |
150/120 |
1.72%/1.36% |
|
|
Jiangxi Province |
92# |
8700-8850 |
8850-8950 |
150/100 |
1.72%/1.13% |
|
95# |
9050-9100 |
9150-9250 |
100/150 |
1.10%/1.65% |
|
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8550-8800 |
8750-9000 |
200/200 |
2.34%/2.27% |
|
95# |
8750-9100 |
8950-9300 |
200/200 |
2.29%/2.20% |
|
|
Hunan |
92# |
8600-8800 |
8730-8800 |
130/0 |
1.51%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8800-9050 |
8930-9050 |
130/0 |
1.48%/0.00% |
(4) North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.21 |
Price 12.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Inner Mongolia Autonomous region |
92# |
8550-8550 |
8600-9185 |
50/635 |
0.58%/7.43% |
|
95# |
8750-8750 |
8800-8800 |
50/50 |
0.57%/0.57% |
|
|
Beijing |
92# |
8750-8750 |
8850-8900 |
100/150 |
1.14%/1.71% |
|
95# |
8950-8950 |
9050-9100 |
100/150 |
1.12%/1.68% |
|
|
Tianjin |
92# |
8300-8430 |
8430-8500 |
130/70 |
1.57%/0.83% |
|
95# |
8500-8600 |
8700-8750 |
200/150 |
2.35%/1.74% |
|
|
Shanxi Province |
92# |
8550-9680 |
8700-9680 |
150/0 |
1.75%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8800-9900 |
8900-9900 |
100/0 |
1.14%/0.00% |
|
|
Hebei |
92# |
8550-8750 |
8700-8780 |
150/30 |
1.75%/0.34% |
|
95# |
8770-8950 |
8900-8970 |
130/20 |
1.48%/0.22% |
|
|
Henan |
92# |
8780-8900 |
8920-8980 |
140/80 |
1.59%/0.90% |
|
95# |
9080-9170 |
9250-9280 |
170/110 |
1.87%/1.20% |
(5) South China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.21 |
Price 12.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Guangdong |
92# |
8650-9300 |
8650-9300 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-9600 |
8900-9600 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Hainan |
92# |
8700-8900 |
8750-9450 |
50/550 |
0.57%/6.18% |
|
95# |
8900-9100 |
9100-9750 |
200/650 |
2.25%/7.14% |
|
|
Fujian |
92# |
8700-8900 |
8750-8900 |
50/0 |
0.57%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8800-8950 |
8950-9100 |
150/150 |
1.70%/1.68% |
(6) Northwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.21 |
Price 12.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8450-9121 |
8750-9121 |
300/0 |
3.55%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8650-9466 |
8950-9466 |
300/0 |
3.47%/0.00% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
9220-9320 |
9270-9370 |
50/50 |
0.54%/0.54% |
|
95# |
9851-9851 |
9900-9900 |
49/49 |
0.50%/0.50% |
|
|
Gansu |
92# |
8550-9606 |
8850-9606 |
300/0 |
3.51%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-10166 |
9050-10166 |
300/0 |
3.43%/0.00% |
|
|
Xizang Autonomous region |
92# |
9470-9470 |
9470-9470 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9920-9920 |
9920-9920 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8350-9480 |
8780-9330 |
430/-150 |
5.15%/-1.58% |
|
95# |
8550-9680 |
8850-9680 |
300/0 |
3.51%/0.00% |
|
|
Qinghai |
92# |
9000-9000 |
9100-9100 |
100/100 |
1.11%/1.11% |
|
95# |
9450-9450 |
9550-9550 |
100/100 |
1.06%/1.06% |
(7) Southwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.21 |
Price 12.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Yunnan |
92# |
8700-8900 |
9050-9200 |
350/300 |
4.02%/3.37% |
|
95# |
9230-9450 |
9500-9650 |
270/200 |
2.93%/2.12% |
|
|
Sichuan |
92# |
8750-9000 |
8900-9150 |
150/150 |
1.71%/1.67% |
|
95# |
9250-9300 |
9250-9300 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
92# |
8750-9775 |
8900-9775 |
150/0 |
1.71%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-10346 |
9050-10346 |
150/0 |
1.69%/0.00% |
|
|
Guizhou |
92# |
8800-9000 |
9000-9100 |
200/100 |
2.27%/1.11% |
|
95# |
9000-9300 |
9050-9400 |
50/100 |
0.56%/1.08% |
|
|
Chongqing |
92# |
8630-9100 |
8850-9200 |
220/100 |
2.55%/1.10% |
|
95# |
8850-9500 |
9150-9500 |
300/0 |
3.39%/0.00% |
(8) Northeast geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.21 |
Price 12.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8250-8300 |
8300-8350 |
50/50 |
0.61%/0.60% |
|
95# |
8450-8500 |
8500-8500 |
50/0 |
0.59%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(9) East China geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.21 |
Price 12.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8200-8390 |
8300-8620 |
100/230 |
1.22%/2.74% |
|
95# |
8320-8520 |
8420-8750 |
100/230 |
1.20%/2.70% |
(10) Central China Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.21 |
Price 12.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8410-8410 |
8700-8700 |
290/290 |
3.45%/3.45% |
|
95# |
8610-8610 |
8900-8900 |
290/290 |
3.37%/3.37% |
(11) geochemistry in North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.21 |
Price 12.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Henan |
92# |
8160-8250 |
8390-8500 |
230/250 |
2.82%/3.03% |
|
95# |
8210-8350 |
8490-8550 |
280/200 |
3.41%/2.40% |
(12) Shandong Geolian
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.21 |
Price 12.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong |
92# |
8050-8400 |
8200-8650 |
150/250 |
1.86%/2.98% |
|
95# |
8200-8540 |
8300-8740 |
100/200 |
1.22%/2.34% |
(13) Northwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.21 |
Price 12.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8150-8250 |
8350-8450 |
200/200 |
2.45%/2.42% |
|
95# |
8300-8400 |
8500-8600 |
200/200 |
2.41%/2.38% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8350-8350 |
8650-8650 |
300/300 |
3.59%/3.59% |
|
95# |
8550-8550 |
8850-8850 |
300/300 |
3.51%/3.51% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8650-8650 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(14) Southwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 12.21 |
Price 12.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Sichuan Province |
92# |
8600-8600 |
8800-8800 |
200/200 |
2.33%/2.33% |
|
95# |
8750-8750 |
8950-8950 |
200/200 |
2.29%/2.29% |
V. Future forecast
From the perspective of international crude oil, with the weakening of geo-events in the Red Sea, traders are looking back to the fundamentals of supply and demand; US crude oil inventories continue to accumulate, the supply level is loose, and fundamentals remain weak, and international oil prices are expected to fall next week. The retail price limit of refined oil products is expected to be raised next week, and the news is positive. But next week, the main unit in early 2024 may usher in a "good start" price reduction promotional incentives may be increased to curb gasoline prices. On the whole, it is expected that the upward resistance of China's gasoline market will increase in the short term, and there will be room for downward adjustment.
VI. Operating rate
This week (20231222-20231228) is approaching New Year's Day's holiday, the market trading atmosphere is heating up, in which the operating rate of the main unit is 76.5%, which is flat; the production progress of independent refineries is accelerated, the operating rate is 63.99%, an increase of 0.29%
Supply and demand & profit
Supply and demand: this week, China's oil product output is 3.1006 million tons, China's main output is 2.1556 million tons, China's independent refineries output 945000 tons, China's independent refinery gasoline sales of 1.0436 million tons, China's commercial inventory of 13.3628 million tons.
Profit: main comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 437.34 yuan / ton, georefining comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 399.16 yuan / ton, atmospheric and vacuum weekly production gross profit 334 yuan / ton, FCC weekly production gross profit-189yuan / ton, delayed coking weekly production gross profit 440.53 yuan / ton.
VIII. Plant maintenance schedule
|
Maintenance list of main refineries in China |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Dongxing in Zhanjiang |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 8, 2023 |
December 4, 2023 |
|
Cangzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 25, 2024 |
October 25, 2024 |
|
Dalian Petrochemical Corporation |
Whole plant overhaul |
2050 |
March 15, 2024 |
May 10, 2024 |
|
Dalian West Pacific |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
450 |
May 25, 2024 |
July 13, 2024 |
|
Dushanzi petrification |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
May 15, 2024 |
July 5, 2024 |
|
Fujian Union |
Whole plant overhaul |
1200 |
November 1, 2024 |
December 20, 2024 |
|
Guangxi Petrochemical Corporation |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
October 10, 2024 |
November 30, 2024 |
|
Guangzhou Petrochemical Corporation |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
520 |
October 15, 2023 |
December 11, 2023 |
|
Jilin Petrochemical Corporation |
Whole plant overhaul |
980 |
August 24, 2024 |
October 14, 2024 |
|
Jinling Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
800 |
November 15, 2024 |
December 31, 2024 |
|
Jinzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
April 10, 2024 |
May 22, 2024 |
|
Maoming Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
500 |
May 25, 2024 |
July 5, 2024 |
|
Ningxia Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
July 3, 2024 |
August 31, 2024 |
|
Qilu Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
800 |
June 10, 2024 |
July 20, 2024 |
|
Shengli Oilfield |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
September 1, 2024 |
November 1, 2024 |
|
Tahe petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
150 |
March 15, 2024 |
April 30, 2024 |
|
Tianjin Petrochemical Company |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
250 |
March 10, 2024 |
April 25, 2024 |
|
Wuhan Petrochemical Corporation |
The whole plant |
850 |
October 13, 2024 |
December 15, 2024 |
|
Changling Petrochemical Company |
Atmospheric and vacuum |
800 |
December 1, 2024 |
To be determined |
|
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
800 |
April 15, 2024 |
June 15, 2024 |
|
CNOOC Orient |
Whole plant overhaul |
200 |
March 15, 2024 |
May 1, 2024 |
|
Chinese Science Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
March 20, 2024 |
May 20, 2024 |
|
Maintenance list of local refinery equipment |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Shenchi chemical industry |
Catalytic cracking |
120 |
January 22, 2023 |
February 20, 2023 |
|
Dalian Hengli |
Hydrogenation of wax oil and residue |
/ |
May 20, 2023 |
Early July 2023 |
|
Dalian Jinyuan |
Whole plant overhaul |
220 |
July 10, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Dongying Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
March 12, 2023 |
May 10, 2023 |
|
Fengli petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
260 |
July 20, 2023 |
August 20, 2023 |
|
Fu Haichuang |
Whole plant overhaul |
700 |
June 16, 2023 |
September 15, 2023 |
|
Huaxing petrochemical |
Catalytic, diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
October 16, 2023 |
December 4, 2023 |
|
Kenli Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 15, 2023 |
|
Lanqiao Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
June 15, 2023 |
August 2, 2023 |
|
Lijin refining and chemical industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 19, 2023 |
September 18, 2023 |
|
United petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
420 |
April 9, 2023 |
May 19, 2023 |
|
Liaoning Baolai |
Catalysis, hydrogenation, etc. |
/ |
January 30, 2023 |
February 23, 2023 |
|
Whole plant overhaul |
1400 |
July 31, 2023 |
September 15, 2023 |
|
|
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
300 |
October 27, 2023 |
November 20, 2023 |
|
|
Liaoning Huajin |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 8, 2023 |
March 15, 2023 |
|
Liaoning Huajin |
The whole plant |
600 |
May 1, 2024 |
June 1, 2024 |
|
Ninglu Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection of the whole plant |
120 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 5, 2023 |
|
Panjin Haoye |
Fault shutdown |
650 |
January 15, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Qicheng petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
350 |
August 5, 2023 |
Mid-September 2023 |
|
Wantong Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
July 13, 2023 |
August 30, 2023 |
|
Wudi Xinyue |
Whole plant overhaul |
240 |
June 26, 2023 |
Early September 2023 |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Atmospheric and vacuum |
300 |
March 1, 2024 |
April 1, 2024 |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
April 26, 2023 |
August 10, 2023 |
|
Xintai Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
220 |
2023 / end of February |
July 22, 2023 |
|
Yatong Petrochemical |
Hydrocracking |
200 |
May 27, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Yan'an Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
560 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 26, 2023 |
|
Yongping Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
460 |
September 4, 2023 |
September 20, 2023 |
|
Zhonghe petrochemical |
Catalysis |
100 |
March 31, 2023 |
April 15, 2023 |
|
Catalysis, reforming, gasoline hydrogenation |
/ |
November 8, 2023 |
To be determined |
|
|
China and overseas |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
February 28, 2023 |
April 20, 2023 |
