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Gasoline Special issue-20231207 issue
I. International crude oil futures price
|
Date |
WTI |
Brent |
Muerban |
DME Oman |
Shanghai crude oil |
WTI/ Brent spread |
Brent / DME Oman spread |
|
20231130 |
75.96 |
82.83 |
84.7 |
83.15 |
583 |
-6.87 |
-0.32 |
|
20231206 |
69.38 |
74.3 |
74.87 |
77.62 |
555.1 |
-4.92 |
-3.32 |
|
The rate of change compared with last week |
-8.66% |
-10.30% |
-11.61% |
-6.65% |
-4.79% |
-28.38% |
937.50% |
|
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. |
|||||||
II. Summary of gasoline market
This week (20231201-20231207) the wholesale price of gasoline in China was mainly cut, with gasoline prices in North China, South China, Central China, East China and Southwest China reduced by 50-150 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices fluctuated slightly up and down in the northwest, while prices rose slightly in the northeast. Most of the ex-factory prices of georefining declined, including gasoline prices in Shandong, North China, Central China, East China and Southwest China, concentrated in 50-120 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices in the northwest and northeast regions are relatively stable. The main factors of the gasoline market this week are as follows: 1. The negative factors of the crude oil market have increased, and the situation of strong supply and weak demand is obvious. during the week, crude oil closed down for five consecutive working days, and WTI crude oil fell out of the $70 / barrel mark. 2. The overall performance on the demand side is tired, and the purchasing mentality is weak; on the supply side, the negative operation of the refinery still exists, especially the decline in the utilization rate of the main capacity; at the beginning of this week, the sales performance pressure of the main unit is relatively small, and the refinery inventory is relatively low. The price space is still there, and the decline is small. On the whole, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the trading atmosphere is light. 3. Under the influence of the rate of change of international crude oil, the retail price limit of refined oil was lowered during the week, realizing five consecutive declines.
III. Gasoline price index
According to Tudor data, as of December 7, China's gasoline price index was 8696.70, down 53.44 from last week, down 0.61% from 9033.02, down 61.31 from last week, or 0.67%. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 336.31.
IV. Spot market for gasoline
1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China
|
Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 11.30 |
Price 12.7 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
North China region |
92# |
8360-9600 |
8280-9600 |
-80/0 |
-0.96%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8560-9900 |
8480-9900 |
-80/0 |
-0.93%/0.00% |
|
|
South China |
92# |
8650-9700 |
8500-9600 |
-150/-100 |
-1.73%/-1.03% |
|
95# |
8900-10000 |
8700-9900 |
-200/-100 |
-2.25%/-1.00% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8600-8900 |
8550-8900 |
-50/0 |
-0.58%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-9200 |
8700-9200 |
-50/0 |
-0.57%/0.00% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8450-9300 |
8350-9300 |
-100/0 |
-1.18%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8700-9600 |
8650-9600 |
-50/0 |
-0.57%/0.00% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8250-9800 |
8350-9760 |
100/-40 |
1.21%/-0.41% |
|
95# |
8350-10100 |
8500-10020 |
150/-80 |
1.80%/-0.79% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8550-9080 |
8500-9100 |
-50/20 |
-0.58%/0.22% |
|
95# |
8800-9510 |
8700-9550 |
-100/40 |
-1.14%/0.42% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8345-8850 |
8350-8850 |
5/0 |
0.06%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8580-9800 |
8600-9800 |
20/0 |
0.23%/0.00% |
|
|
Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 11.30 |
Price 12.7 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
8200-8540 |
8100-8420 |
-100/-120 |
-1.22%/-1.41% |
|
95# |
8380-8660 |
8260-8560 |
-120/-100 |
-1.43%/-1.15% |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8330-8350 |
8220-8260 |
-110/-90 |
-1.32%/-1.08% |
|
95# |
8400-8430 |
8270-8360 |
-130/-70 |
-1.55%/-0.83% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8730-8730 |
8420-8420 |
-310/-310 |
-3.55%/-3.55% |
|
95# |
8930-8930 |
8620-8620 |
-310/-310 |
-3.47%/-3.47% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8260-8500 |
8200-8410 |
-60/-90 |
-0.73%/-1.06% |
|
95# |
8360-8630 |
8300-8540 |
-60/-90 |
-0.72%/-1.04% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8050-8350 |
8050-8350 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8500-8550 |
8500-8550 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8300-8300 |
8300-8300 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8500-8500 |
8500-8500 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8650-8650 |
-50/-50 |
-0.57%/-0.57% |
|
95# |
8850-8850 |
8800-8800 |
-50/-50 |
-0.56%/-0.56% |
|
2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions
(1) Northeast China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.30 |
Price 12.7 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8400-8400 |
8500-8500 |
100/100 |
1.19%/1.19% |
|
95# |
9500-9800 |
9500-9800 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
8340-8850 |
8350-8850 |
10/0 |
0.12%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8580-9300 |
8650-9300 |
70/0 |
0.82%/0.00% |
|
|
Heilongjiang Province |
92# |
8475-8475 |
8400-8400 |
-75/-75 |
-0.88%/-0.88% |
|
95# |
8780-8780 |
8700-8700 |
-80/-80 |
-0.91%/-0.91% |
(2) East China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.30 |
Price 12.7 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shanghai |
92# |
8450-8600 |
8350-8550 |
-100/-50 |
-1.18%/-0.58% |
|
95# |
8650-8800 |
8550-8750 |
-100/-50 |
-1.16%/-0.57% |
|
|
Shandong |
92# |
8890-9300 |
8740-9300 |
-150/0 |
-1.69%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9040-9600 |
8890-9600 |
-150/0 |
-1.66%/0.00% |
|
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8580-8650 |
-70/0 |
-0.81%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-8950 |
8830-8950 |
-70/0 |
-0.79%/0.00% |
|
|
Zhejiang |
92# |
8600-9000 |
8450-8750 |
-150/-250 |
-1.74%/-2.78% |
|
95# |
8950-9200 |
8650-8950 |
-300/-250 |
-3.35%/-2.72% |
(3) Central China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.30 |
Price 12.7 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Anhui Province |
92# |
8600-8700 |
8600-8700 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8800-8850 |
8700-8850 |
-100/0 |
-1.14%/0.00% |
|
|
Jiangxi Province |
92# |
8650-8750 |
8700-8800 |
50/50 |
0.58%/0.57% |
|
95# |
8950-9050 |
8950-9200 |
0/150 |
0.00%/1.66% |
|
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8670-8800 |
8550-8900 |
-120/100 |
-1.38%/1.14% |
|
95# |
8870-9100 |
8750-9200 |
-120/100 |
-1.35%/1.10% |
|
|
Hunan |
92# |
8650-8900 |
8600-8700 |
-50/-200 |
-0.58%/-2.25% |
|
95# |
8850-9150 |
8800-8950 |
-50/-200 |
-0.56%/-2.19% |
(4) North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.30 |
Price 12.7 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Inner Mongolia Autonomous region |
92# |
8500-8500 |
8500-8500 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8700-8700 |
8700-8700 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Beijing |
92# |
8750-8750 |
8750-8750 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8950-8950 |
8950-8950 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Tianjin |
92# |
8360-8480 |
8280-8480 |
-80/0 |
-0.96%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8560-8700 |
8560-8700 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Shanxi Province |
92# |
8650-9600 |
8600-9600 |
-50/0 |
-0.58%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8950-9900 |
8860-9900 |
-90/0 |
-1.01%/0.00% |
|
|
Hebei |
92# |
8640-8690 |
8530-8590 |
-110/-100 |
-1.27%/-1.15% |
|
95# |
8840-8890 |
8730-8790 |
-110/-100 |
-1.24%/-1.12% |
|
|
Henan |
92# |
9080-9130 |
9000-9080 |
-80/-50 |
-0.88%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
9370-9420 |
9270-9420 |
-100/0 |
-1.07%/0.00% |
(5) South China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.30 |
Price 12.7 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Guangdong |
92# |
8650-9700 |
8650-9600 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.03% |
|
95# |
8900-10000 |
8900-9900 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.00% |
|
|
Hainan |
92# |
8800-9000 |
8800-8900 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.11% |
|
95# |
9000-9200 |
9000-9100 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.09% |
|
|
Fujian |
92# |
8850-8900 |
8600-8700 |
-250/-200 |
-2.82%/-2.25% |
|
95# |
9050-9100 |
8800-8900 |
-250/-200 |
-2.76%/-2.20% |
(6) Northwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.30 |
Price 12.7 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8350-9614 |
8350-9561 |
0/-53 |
0.00%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
8550-9977 |
8550-9922 |
0/-55 |
0.00%/-0.55% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
9719-9819 |
9660-9760 |
-59/-59 |
-0.61%/-0.60% |
|
95# |
10277-10377 |
10216-10316 |
-61/-61 |
-0.59%/-0.59% |
|
|
Gansu |
92# |
8350-10100 |
8550-10046 |
200/-54 |
2.40%/-0.53% |
|
95# |
8950-10693 |
8950-10631 |
0/-62 |
0.00%/-0.58% |
|
|
Xizang Autonomous region |
92# |
9520-9520 |
9570-9570 |
50/50 |
0.53%/0.53% |
|
95# |
9970-9970 |
10020-10020 |
50/50 |
0.50%/0.50% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8350-9730 |
8500-9500 |
150/-230 |
1.80%/-2.36% |
|
95# |
8550-10100 |
8550-9860 |
0/-240 |
0.00%/-2.38% |
|
|
Qinghai |
92# |
9100-9100 |
9100-9100 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9550-9550 |
9550-9550 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(7) Southwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.30 |
Price 12.7 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Yunnan |
92# |
8850-9080 |
8780-8930 |
-70/-150 |
-0.79%/-1.65% |
|
95# |
9300-9530 |
9230-9380 |
-70/-150 |
-0.75%/-1.57% |
|
|
Sichuan |
92# |
8750-8900 |
8800-9000 |
50/100 |
0.57%/1.12% |
|
95# |
8900-9200 |
9250-9300 |
350/100 |
3.93%/1.09% |
|
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
92# |
8500-10270 |
8500-10215 |
0/-55 |
0.00%/-0.54% |
|
95# |
8850-10870 |
8850-10810 |
0/-60 |
0.00%/-0.55% |
|
|
Guizhou |
92# |
8800-9000 |
8800-9000 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9100-9300 |
9100-9400 |
0/100 |
0.00%/1.08% |
|
|
Chongqing |
92# |
8700-9100 |
8700-9200 |
0/100 |
0.00%/1.10% |
|
95# |
8900-9450 |
8950-9550 |
50/100 |
0.56%/1.06% |
(8) Northeast geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.30 |
Price 12.7 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8300-8300 |
8300-8300 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8500-8500 |
8500-8500 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(9) East China geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.30 |
Price 12.7 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8260-8500 |
8200-8410 |
-60/-90 |
-0.73%/-1.06% |
|
95# |
8360-8630 |
8300-8540 |
-60/-90 |
-0.72%/-1.04% |
(10) Central China Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.30 |
Price 12.7 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8730-8730 |
8420-8420 |
-310/-310 |
-3.55%/-3.55% |
|
95# |
8930-8930 |
8620-8620 |
-310/-310 |
-3.47%/-3.47% |
(11) geochemistry in North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.30 |
Price 12.7 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Henan |
92# |
8330-8350 |
8220-8260 |
-110/-90 |
-1.32%/-1.08% |
|
95# |
8400-8430 |
8270-8360 |
-130/-70 |
-1.55%/-0.83% |
(12) Shandong Geolian
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.30 |
Price 12.7 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong |
92# |
8200-8540 |
8100-8420 |
-100/-120 |
-1.22%/-1.41% |
|
95# |
8380-8660 |
8260-8560 |
-120/-100 |
-1.43%/-1.15% |
(13) Northwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.30 |
Price 12.7 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8300-8350 |
8300-8300 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.60% |
|
95# |
8450-8500 |
8450-8450 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.59% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8350-8350 |
8350-8350 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8550-8550 |
8550-8550 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
8600-8600 |
8700-8700 |
100/100 |
1.16%/1.16% |
(14) Southwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.30 |
Price 12.7 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Sichuan Province |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8650-8650 |
-50/-50 |
-0.57%/-0.57% |
|
95# |
8850-8850 |
8800-8800 |
-50/-50 |
-0.56%/-0.56% |
V. Future forecast
From the perspective of international crude oil, since the OPEC + meeting announced further production cuts, traders' pessimism about the future has not improved significantly, the supporting effect of production reduction measures on the bottom of oil prices has weakened, and oil prices have continued to fall. In addition, Saudi Arabia lacks confidence in the outlook for Asian demand, and US gasoline and distillate stocks continue to grow, reflecting in many ways the weakness of supply and demand in the crude oil market. However, crude oil prices fell to a relatively low level, OPEC + will not allow oil prices to do so, do not rule out the possibility of taking new measures to stabilize oil prices. From the perspective of the Chinese market, the weather is getting cooler, private travel is increasing, demand is relatively stable and fluctuating; supply-side refinery production reduction measures are still in the process of being implemented, but it will not stop the weak situation in the gasoline market. Overall, there is a lack of new positive factors in the gasoline market, and if there is no positive next week, the gasoline market is expected to maintain a slight decline.
VI. Operating rate
This week (20231201-20231207), the overall operating rate of Chinese refineries declined, with a large decline in the start-up of the main units. Most refineries had negative operations, with capacity utilization rate of 73.45%, down 4.52%, and independent refinery operating rate of 63.38%, down 0.26%.
Supply and demand & profit
Supply and demand: this week, China's oil product output is 3.0501 million tons, China's main output is 2.1909 million tons, China's independent refineries output 859200 tons, China's independent refinery gasoline sales of 960500 tons, China's commercial inventory of 12.8676 million tons.
Profit: main comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 6.55 yuan / ton, georefining comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 631.62 yuan / ton, atmospheric and vacuum weekly production gross profit 728 yuan / ton, FCC weekly production gross profit-157yuan / ton, delayed coking weekly production gross profit 441 yuan / ton.
VIII. Plant maintenance schedule
|
Maintenance list of main refineries in China |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Beihai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Catalytic cracking |
210 |
March 1, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Daqing Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
550 |
August 3, 2023 |
September 23, 2023 |
|
Daqing Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 24, 2023 |
|
Guangzhou Petrochemical Corporation |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
500 |
October 15, 2023 |
December 11, 2023 |
|
Harbin Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
435 |
May 5, 2023 |
June 23, 2023 |
|
Huizhou Refining and Chemical Industry |
The first phase of the whole plant |
1200 |
March 15, 2023 |
Mid-May 2023 |
|
Jinling Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
600 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 26, 2023 |
|
Lanzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1050 |
June 11, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Liaoyang Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
900 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 24, 2023 |
|
Luoyang Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
May 15, 2023 |
July 14, 2023 |
|
Qingdao Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1200 |
May 16, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Sichuan Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
September 15, 2023 |
November 15, 2023 |
|
Tahe petrochemical |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 19, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Urumqi petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
850 |
April 15, 2023 |
June 18, 2023 |
|
Dongxing in Zhanjiang |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 5, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Changqing Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
April 1, 2023 |
May 25, 2023 |
|
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
1000 |
March 10, 2023 |
May 5, 2023 |
|
China National Oil and Gas Taizhou |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
May 12, 2023 |
End of June 2023 |
|
Qingdao Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 7, 2023 |
November 26, 2023 |
|
Maintenance list of local refinery equipment |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Dalian Hengli |
Hydrogenation of wax oil and residue |
/ |
May 20, 2023 |
Early July 2023 |
|
Dalian Jinyuan |
Whole plant overhaul |
220 |
July 10, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Dongying Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
March 12, 2023 |
May 10, 2023 |
|
Fengli petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
260 |
July 20, 2023 |
August 20, 2023 |
|
Fu Haichuang |
Whole plant overhaul |
700 |
June 16, 2023 |
September 15, 2023 |
|
Kenli Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 15, 2023 |
|
Lanqiao Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
June 15, 2023 |
August 2, 2023 |
|
Lijin refining and chemical industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 19, 2023 |
September 18, 2023 |
|
United petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
420 |
April 9, 2023 |
May 19, 2023 |
|
Liaoning Baolai |
Catalysis, hydrogenation, etc. |
/ |
January 30, 2023 |
February 23, 2023 |
|
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
300 |
October 27, 2023 |
November 20, 2023 |
|
|
Whole plant overhaul |
1400 |
July 31, 2023 |
September 15, 2023 |
|
|
Liaoning Huajin |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 8, 2023 |
March 15, 2023 |
|
Ninglu Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection of the whole plant |
120 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 5, 2023 |
|
Panjin Haoye |
Fault shutdown |
650 |
January 15, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Qicheng petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
350 |
August 5, 2023 |
Mid-September 2023 |
|
Shenchi chemical industry |
Catalytic cracking |
120 |
January 22, 2023 |
February 20, 2023 |
|
Wantong Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
July 13, 2023 |
August 30, 2023 |
|
Wudi Xinyue |
Whole plant overhaul |
240 |
June 26, 2023 |
Early September 2023 |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
April 26, 2023 |
August 10, 2023 |
|
Xintai Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
220 |
End of February 2023 |
July 22, 2023 |
|
Yatong Petrochemical |
Hydrocracking |
200 |
May 27, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Yan'an Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
560 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 26, 2023 |
|
Zhonghe petrochemical |
Catalysis, reforming, gasoline hydrogenation |
/ |
November 8, 2023 |
To be determined |
|
China and overseas |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
February 28, 2023 |
April 20, 2023 |
|
Yongping Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
460 |
September 4, 2023 |
September 20, 2023 |
|
Huaxing petrochemical |
Catalytic, diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
October 16, 2023 |
December 4, 2023 |
