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Gasoline Special issue-20231116 issue
I. International crude oil futures price
|
Date |
WTI |
Brent |
Muerban |
DME Oman |
Shanghai crude oil |
WTI/ Brent spread |
Brent / DME Oman spread |
|
20231108 |
75.33 |
79.54 |
80.83 |
82.81 |
612.3 |
-4.21 |
-3.27 |
|
20231115 |
76.66 |
81.18 |
81.89 |
83.27 |
607 |
-4.52 |
-2.09 |
|
The rate of change compared with last week |
1.77% |
2.06% |
1.31% |
0.56% |
-0.87% |
7.36% |
-36.09% |
|
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. |
|||||||
II. Summary of gasoline market
Wholesale gasoline prices in China were mixed this week (20231110-20231116), with low-end gasoline prices in North China, South China and Central China rising by 50-150 yuan per ton. The price of gasoline in southwest China and northeast China will be reduced by 30-200 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices in Northwest China are relatively stable. There are also ups and downs in ex-factory prices, including gasoline prices in Shandong, North China and East China by 80-150 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices in central China, northeast and southwest regions have been reduced by 30-150 yuan per ton. This week, the main factors of the gasoline market: 1, international crude oil: international oil prices rose first and then fell. During the week, OPEC and the International Energy Agency successively raised this year's crude oil demand growth forecast to boost oil prices, but as the growth of US commercial crude oil data was much higher than expected, international oil prices fell. 2. Chinese market: from the supply side, the negative benefits of refineries are gradually exhausted, and the demand side has not improved; but the monthly completion of the tasks of the main units can be coupled with the stimulation of the rising stage of crude oil, refinery quotations have risen during the week, but the increase is limited.
III. Gasoline price index
According to Tudor data, as of November 16, China's gasoline price index was 8711.49, down 20.72 from last week, down 0.24% from last week, down 0.24% from 9073.33, down 27.64 from last week, or 0.30%. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 361.84.
IV. Spot market for gasoline
1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China
|
Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 11.9 |
Price 11.16 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
North China region |
92# |
8180-9600 |
8230-9600 |
50/0 |
0.61%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8380-9900 |
8430-9900 |
50/0 |
0.60%/0.00% |
|
|
South China |
92# |
8500-9500 |
8500-9600 |
0/100 |
0.00%/1.05% |
|
95# |
8750-9800 |
8750-9900 |
0/100 |
0.00%/1.02% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8400-8950 |
8500-9000 |
100/50 |
1.19%/0.56% |
|
95# |
8550-9400 |
8700-9200 |
150/-200 |
1.75%/-2.13% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8350-9500 |
8370-9500 |
20/0 |
0.24%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8550-9800 |
8520-9800 |
-30/0 |
-0.35%/0.00% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8180-9900 |
8180-9900 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8350-10270 |
8350-10270 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8580-9050 |
8400-9000 |
-180/-50 |
-2.10%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
8850-9450 |
8700-9330 |
-150/-120 |
-1.69%/-1.27% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8350-9100 |
8320-8900 |
-30/-200 |
-0.36%/-2.20% |
|
95# |
8580-10000 |
8580-10000 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 11.9 |
Price 11.16 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
7900-8220 |
8050-8350 |
150/130 |
1.90%/1.58% |
|
95# |
8060-8390 |
8150-8520 |
90/130 |
1.12%/1.55% |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8030-8050 |
8110-8220 |
80/170 |
1.00%/2.11% |
|
95# |
8100-8180 |
8210-8320 |
110/140 |
1.36%/1.71% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8270-8270 |
8240-8240 |
-30/-30 |
-0.36%/-0.36% |
|
95# |
8470-8470 |
8440-8440 |
-30/-30 |
-0.35%/-0.35% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8050-8150 |
8130-8280 |
80/130 |
0.99%/1.60% |
|
95# |
8170-8320 |
8250-8450 |
80/130 |
0.98%/1.56% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
7950-8150 |
7950-8150 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8150-8350 |
8150-8350 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8300-8400 |
8300-8300 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.19% |
|
95# |
8600-8600 |
8500-8500 |
-100/-100 |
-1.16%/-1.16% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8550-8550 |
8400-8400 |
-150/-150 |
-1.75%/-1.75% |
|
95# |
8700-8700 |
8550-8550 |
-150/-150 |
-1.72%/-1.72% |
|
2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions
(1) Northeast China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.9 |
Price 11.16 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8400-8700 |
-300/0 |
-3.45%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9400-10150 |
9500-10150 |
100/0 |
1.06%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
8350-9100 |
8350-8900 |
0/-200 |
0.00%/-2.20% |
|
95# |
8500-9500 |
8500-9300 |
0/-200 |
0.00%/-2.11% |
|
|
Heilongjiang Province |
92# |
8500-8500 |
8500-8500 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9100-9100 |
8800-8800 |
-300/-300 |
-3.30%/-3.30% |
(2) East China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.9 |
Price 11.16 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shanghai |
92# |
8350-8500 |
8350-8500 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8550-8700 |
8550-8700 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Shandong |
92# |
8550-9500 |
8500-9500 |
-50/0 |
-0.58%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8700-9800 |
8790-9800 |
90/0 |
1.03%/0.00% |
|
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8550-8650 |
8550-8600 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.58% |
|
95# |
8800-9050 |
8800-9000 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.55% |
|
|
Zhejiang |
92# |
8750-8850 |
8650-8850 |
-100/0 |
-1.14%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-9050 |
8850-9050 |
-50/0 |
-0.56%/0.00% |
(3) Central China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.9 |
Price 11.16 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Anhui Province |
92# |
8600-8850 |
8600-8800 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.56% |
|
95# |
8800-9050 |
8800-9000 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.55% |
|
|
Jiangxi Province |
92# |
8700-8950 |
8700-9000 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.56% |
|
95# |
9100-9150 |
9100-9200 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.55% |
|
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8480-9100 |
8500-8600 |
20/-500 |
0.24%/-5.49% |
|
95# |
8680-9400 |
8700-8900 |
20/-500 |
0.23%/-5.32% |
|
|
Hunan |
92# |
8520-8600 |
8550-8600 |
30/0 |
0.35%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8670-8850 |
8720-8850 |
50/0 |
0.58%/0.00% |
(4) North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.9 |
Price 11.16 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Inner Mongolia Autonomous region |
92# |
8350-8350 |
8350-8350 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8550-8550 |
8550-8550 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Beijing |
92# |
8600-8600 |
8700-8700 |
100/100 |
1.16%/1.16% |
|
95# |
8800-8900 |
8900-9000 |
100/100 |
1.14%/1.12% |
|
|
Tianjin |
92# |
8150-8300 |
8230-8330 |
80/30 |
0.98%/0.36% |
|
95# |
8350-8550 |
8430-8600 |
80/50 |
0.96%/0.58% |
|
|
Shanxi Province |
92# |
8440-9600 |
8500-9600 |
60/0 |
0.71%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8700-9900 |
8750-9900 |
50/0 |
0.57%/0.00% |
|
|
Hebei |
92# |
8360-8600 |
8400-8630 |
40/30 |
0.48%/0.35% |
|
95# |
8560-8820 |
8700-8830 |
140/10 |
1.64%/0.11% |
|
|
Henan |
92# |
8370-9050 |
8420-9050 |
50/0 |
0.60%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8650-9420 |
8700-9420 |
50/0 |
0.58%/0.00% |
(5) South China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.9 |
Price 11.16 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Guangdong |
92# |
8500-9650 |
8500-9650 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8950-9800 |
8920-9900 |
-30/100 |
-0.34%/1.02% |
|
|
Hainan |
92# |
9000-9000 |
8900-9000 |
-100/0 |
-1.11%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9200-9200 |
9100-9200 |
-100/0 |
-1.09%/0.00% |
|
|
Fujian |
92# |
8550-8850 |
8600-8850 |
50/0 |
0.58%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8800-9100 |
8850-9100 |
50/0 |
0.57%/0.00% |
(6) Northwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.9 |
Price 11.16 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8450-9900 |
8450-9900 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8650-10270 |
8650-10270 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
10179-10179 |
10179-10179 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
10555-10758 |
10555-10758 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Gansu |
92# |
8350-10460 |
8350-10460 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9300-11074 |
9300-11074 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Xizang Autonomous region |
92# |
9720-9720 |
9620-9620 |
-100/-100 |
-1.03%/-1.03% |
|
95# |
10120-10120 |
10020-10020 |
-100/-100 |
-0.99%/-0.99% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8150-9816 |
8150-9816 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8250-10186 |
8250-10186 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Qinghai |
92# |
9250-9250 |
9200-9200 |
-50/-50 |
-0.54%/-0.54% |
|
95# |
9650-9650 |
9650-9650 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(7) Southwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.9 |
Price 11.16 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Yunnan |
92# |
8850-9000 |
8730-8880 |
-120/-120 |
-1.36%/-1.33% |
|
95# |
9300-9450 |
9180-9330 |
-120/-120 |
-1.29%/-1.27% |
|
|
Sichuan |
92# |
8600-9050 |
8550-8800 |
-50/-250 |
-0.58%/-2.76% |
|
95# |
9150-9350 |
8800-9100 |
-350/-250 |
-3.83%/-2.67% |
|
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
92# |
8600-10780 |
8400-10630 |
-200/-150 |
-2.33%/-1.39% |
|
95# |
8850-11410 |
8850-11253 |
0/-157 |
0.00%/-1.38% |
|
|
Guizhou |
92# |
8800-9000 |
8800-9000 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9100-9300 |
9100-9300 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Chongqing |
92# |
8580-9400 |
8480-9400 |
-100/0 |
-1.17%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-9750 |
8750-9750 |
-150/0 |
-1.69%/0.00% |
(8) Northeast geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.9 |
Price 11.16 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8300-8400 |
8300-8300 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.19% |
|
95# |
8600-8600 |
8500-8500 |
-100/-100 |
-1.16%/-1.16% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(9) East China geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.9 |
Price 11.16 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8050-8150 |
8130-8280 |
80/130 |
0.99%/1.60% |
|
95# |
8170-8320 |
8250-8450 |
80/130 |
0.98%/1.56% |
(10) Central China Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.9 |
Price 11.16 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8270-8270 |
8240-8240 |
-30/-30 |
-0.36%/-0.36% |
|
95# |
8470-8470 |
8440-8440 |
-30/-30 |
-0.35%/-0.35% |
(11) geochemistry in North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.9 |
Price 11.16 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Henan |
92# |
8030-8050 |
8110-8220 |
80/170 |
1.00%/2.11% |
|
95# |
8100-8180 |
8210-8320 |
110/140 |
1.36%/1.71% |
(12) Shandong Geolian
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.9 |
Price 11.16 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong |
92# |
7950-8250 |
8050-8350 |
100/100 |
1.26%/1.21% |
|
95# |
8080-8460 |
8150-8520 |
70/60 |
0.87%/0.71% |
(13) Northwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.9 |
Price 11.16 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8000-8100 |
8000-8100 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8150-8250 |
8150-8150 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.21% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8150-8150 |
8150-8150 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8350-8350 |
8350-8350 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
8550-8550 |
8550-8550 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(14) Southwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.9 |
Price 11.16 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Sichuan Province |
92# |
8550-8550 |
8400-8400 |
-150/-150 |
-1.75%/-1.75% |
|
95# |
8700-8700 |
8550-8550 |
-150/-150 |
-1.72%/-1.72% |
V. Future forecast
From the perspective of international crude oil, there is no bright spot in the market at present. OPEC+ on the supply side has not made any further statement on the measures to reduce production, but its position on reducing production is firm, focusing on the OPEC+ meeting on November 26th. Less attention has been paid to geopolitical events, and most markets believe that the Fed's rate-raising cycle may be over. International oil prices are expected to remain under pressure next week. From the demand point of view, terminal demand continues to be weak, the market is more bearish, hoarding operations are less rigid demand-based procurement, operators also maintain a cautious attitude when entering the market. From the supply side, there are no new refineries for inspection and repair next week, and the negative reduction is basically in place. Refinery operating rate is expected to remain relatively stable next week, with little change. In addition, a new round of refined oil price adjustment is about to begin next week, and is now showing a wide reduction in expectations, negative guidance. Taken together, it is expected that China's gasoline market may continue to decline in the short term.
VI. Operating rate
This week (20231110-20231116), the operating rate of Chinese refineries was relatively stable, with Sichuan Petrochemical as the main unit, and capacity utilization increased by 0.08% to 76.04%. The operating rate of independent refineries was 62.97%, unchanged from last week.
Supply and demand & profit
Supply and demand: this week, China's oil product output is 3.0426 million tons, China's main output is 2.1652 million tons, China's independent refineries output 877400 tons, China's independent refinery gasoline sales of 900500 tons, China's commercial inventory of 13.2877 million tons.
Profit: main comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 114.03 yuan / ton, georefining comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 380 yuan / ton, atmospheric and vacuum weekly production gross profit 517 yuan / ton, FCC weekly production gross profit-481 yuan / ton, delayed coking weekly production gross profit 522 yuan / ton.
VIII. Plant maintenance schedule
|
Maintenance schedule of main refineries in China |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Beihai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Catalytic cracking |
210 |
March 1, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Daqing Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
550 |
August 3, 2023 |
September 23, 2023 |
|
Daqing Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 24, 2023 |
|
Guangzhou Petrochemical Corporation |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
500 |
October 15, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Harbin Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
435 |
May 5, 2023 |
June 23, 2023 |
|
Huizhou Refining and Chemical Industry |
The first phase of the whole plant |
1200 |
March 15, 2023 |
Mid-May 2023 |
|
Jinling Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
600 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 26, 2023 |
|
Lanzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1050 |
June 11, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Liaoyang Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
900 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 24, 2023 |
|
Luoyang Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
May 15, 2023 |
July 14, 2023 |
|
Qingdao Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1200 |
May 16, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Sichuan Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
September 15, 2023 |
November 15, 2023 |
|
Tahe petrochemical |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 19, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Urumqi petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
850 |
April 15, 2023 |
June 18, 2023 |
|
Dongxing in Zhanjiang |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 5, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Changqing Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
April 1, 2023 |
May 25, 2023 |
|
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
1000 |
March 10, 2023 |
May 5, 2023 |
|
China National Oil and Gas Taizhou |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
May 12, 2023 |
End of June 2023 |
|
Qingdao Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 7, 2023 |
November 26, 2023 |
|
Maintenance schedule of local refinery plant |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Dalian Hengli |
Hydrogenation of wax oil and residue |
/ |
May 20, 2023 |
Early July 2023 |
|
Dalian Jinyuan |
Whole plant overhaul |
220 |
July 10, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Dongying Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
March 12, 2023 |
May 10, 2023 |
|
Fengli petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
260 |
July 20, 2023 |
August 20, 2023 |
|
Fu Haichuang |
Whole plant overhaul |
700 |
June 16, 2023 |
September 15, 2023 |
|
Kenli Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 15, 2023 |
|
Lanqiao Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
June 15, 2023 |
August 2, 2023 |
|
Lijin refining and chemical industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 19, 2023 |
September 18, 2023 |
|
United petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
420 |
April 9, 2023 |
May 19, 2023 |
|
Liaoning Baolai |
Catalysis, hydrogenation, etc. |
/ |
January 30, 2023 |
February 23, 2023 |
|
Whole plant overhaul |
2400 |
August 31, 2023 |
September 15, 2023 |
|
|
Liaoning Huajin |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 8, 2023 |
March 15, 2023 |
|
Ninglu Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection of the whole plant |
120 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 5, 2023 |
|
Panjin Haoye |
Fault shutdown |
650 |
January 15, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Qicheng petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
350 |
August 5, 2023 |
Mid-September 2023 |
|
Shenchi chemical industry |
Catalytic cracking |
120 |
January 22, 2023 |
February 20, 2023 |
|
Wantong Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
July 13, 2023 |
August 30, 2023 |
|
Wudi Xinyue |
Whole plant overhaul |
240 |
June 26, 2023 |
Early September 2023 |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
April 26, 2023 |
August 10, 2023 |
|
Xintai Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
220 |
End of February 2023 |
July 22, 2023 |
|
Yatong Petrochemical |
Hydrocracking |
200 |
May 27, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Yan'an Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
560 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 26, 2023 |
|
Zhonghe petrochemical |
Catalysis |
/ |
November 8, 2023 |
To be determined |
|
China and overseas |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
February 28, 2023 |
April 20, 2023 |
|
Yongping Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
460 |
September 4, 2023 |
September 20, 2023 |
|
Huaxing petrochemical |
Catalysis, coking |
/ |
October 16, 2023 |
November 2023 |
