Tu Duoduo Gasoline Industry Special Issue-No. 20231109
91,897 
November 9, 2023, 5:41 PM
Gasoline Special issue-20231109 issue
I. International crude oil futures price
|
Date |
WTI |
Brent |
Muerban |
DME Oman |
Shanghai crude oil |
WTI/ Brent spread |
Brent / DME Oman spread |
|
20231101 |
80.44 |
84.63 |
85.7 |
86.26 |
651.9 |
-4.19 |
-1.63 |
|
20231108 |
75.33 |
79.54 |
80.83 |
82.81 |
612.3 |
-4.21 |
-3.27 |
|
The rate of change compared with last week |
-6.35% |
-6.01% |
-5.68% |
-4.00% |
-6.07% |
0.48% |
100.61% |
|
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. |
|||||||
II. Summary of gasoline market
This week (20231103-20231109) China's main wholesale gasoline prices were cut by 50-180 yuan per ton as a whole. The ex-factory price of georefining went down in most areas, including Shandong, Central China, East China, Northwest and Southwest regions by 40-100 yuan / ton. The main factors of the gasoline market this week: 1, international crude oil: Saudi Arabia and Russia reiterated their plans to cut production before the end of the year to slightly boost oil prices, but concerns about the market demand outlook increased. Negative factors such as the superimposed growth of US commercial crude oil stocks increased, and oil prices fell significantly. 2. Chinese market: the continuous reduction of processing load and production of refineries on the supply side has a certain support to the market, but the continued weakness of demand is difficult to change color in the short term, and the support is weak. Although the market has been falling for many days in a row, the decline still exists, and the bearish mood is strong.
III. Gasoline price index
According to Tudor data, as of November 9, China's gasoline price index was 8732.21, down 87.48, or 0.99%, from last week. The gasoline price index was 9100.97, down 42.84 or 0.47% from last week. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 368.76.
IV. Spot market for gasoline
1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China
|
Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 11.2 |
Price 11.9 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
North China region |
92# |
8150-9600 |
8180-9600 |
30/0 |
0.37%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8350-10000 |
8380-9900 |
30/-100 |
0.36%/-1.00% |
|
|
South China |
92# |
8600-9680 |
8500-9500 |
-100/-180 |
-1.16%/-1.86% |
|
95# |
8850-9980 |
8750-9800 |
-100/-180 |
-1.13%/-1.80% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8500-9000 |
8400-8950 |
-100/-50 |
-1.18%/-0.56% |
|
95# |
8650-9450 |
8550-9400 |
-100/-50 |
-1.16%/-0.53% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8400-9650 |
8350-9500 |
-50/-150 |
-0.60%/-1.55% |
|
95# |
8600-10000 |
8550-9800 |
-50/-200 |
-0.58%/-2.00% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8330-10000 |
8180-9900 |
-150/-100 |
-1.80%/-1.00% |
|
95# |
8530-10450 |
8350-10270 |
-180/-180 |
-2.11%/-1.72% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8600-9200 |
8580-9050 |
-20/-150 |
-0.23%/-1.63% |
|
95# |
8850-9500 |
8850-9450 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.53% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8450-9800 |
8350-9100 |
-100/-700 |
-1.18%/-7.14% |
|
95# |
8800-10000 |
8580-10000 |
-220/0 |
-2.50%/0.00% |
|
|
Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 11.2 |
Price 11.9 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
7950-8250 |
7900-8220 |
-50/-30 |
-0.63%/-0.36% |
|
95# |
8080-8460 |
8060-8390 |
-20/-70 |
-0.25%/-0.83% |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8030-8040 |
8030-8050 |
0/10 |
0.00%/0.12% |
|
95# |
8090-8180 |
8100-8180 |
10/0 |
0.12%/0.00% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8310-8310 |
8270-8270 |
-40/-40 |
-0.48%/-0.48% |
|
95# |
8510-8510 |
8470-8470 |
-40/-40 |
-0.47%/-0.47% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8120-8250 |
8050-8150 |
-70/-100 |
-0.86%/-1.21% |
|
95# |
8240-8420 |
8170-8320 |
-70/-100 |
-0.85%/-1.19% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8050-8250 |
7950-8150 |
-100/-100 |
-1.24%/-1.21% |
|
95# |
8200-8450 |
8150-8350 |
-50/-100 |
-0.61%/-1.18% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8300-8400 |
8300-8400 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8600-8600 |
8600-8600 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8550-8550 |
-100/-100 |
-1.16%/-1.16% |
|
95# |
8800-8800 |
8700-8700 |
-100/-100 |
-1.14%/-1.14% |
|
2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions
(1) Northeast China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.2 |
Price 11.9 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8700-9800 |
8700-8700 |
0/-1100 |
0.00%/-11.22% |
|
95# |
9450-10150 |
9400-10150 |
-50/0 |
-0.53%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
8450-9100 |
8350-9100 |
-100/0 |
-1.18%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8650-9500 |
8500-9500 |
-150/0 |
-1.73%/0.00% |
|
|
Heilongjiang Province |
92# |
8550-8550 |
8500-8500 |
-50/-50 |
-0.58%/-0.58% |
|
95# |
9000-9000 |
9100-9100 |
100/100 |
1.11%/1.11% |
(2) East China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.2 |
Price 11.9 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shanghai |
92# |
8450-8600 |
8350-8500 |
-100/-100 |
-1.18%/-1.16% |
|
95# |
8650-8800 |
8550-8700 |
-100/-100 |
-1.16%/-1.14% |
|
|
Shandong |
92# |
8600-9650 |
8550-9500 |
-50/-150 |
-0.58%/-1.55% |
|
95# |
8750-10000 |
8700-9800 |
-50/-200 |
-0.57%/-2.00% |
|
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8650-8700 |
8550-8650 |
-100/-50 |
-1.16%/-0.57% |
|
95# |
8900-8950 |
8800-9050 |
-100/100 |
-1.12%/1.12% |
|
|
Zhejiang |
92# |
8800-8900 |
8750-8850 |
-50/-50 |
-0.57%/-0.56% |
|
95# |
9000-9150 |
8900-9050 |
-100/-100 |
-1.11%/-1.09% |
(3) Central China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.2 |
Price 11.9 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Anhui Province |
92# |
8700-8900 |
8600-8850 |
-100/-50 |
-1.15%/-0.56% |
|
95# |
8900-9100 |
8800-9050 |
-100/-50 |
-1.12%/-0.55% |
|
|
Jiangxi Province |
92# |
8850-9000 |
8700-8950 |
-150/-50 |
-1.69%/-0.56% |
|
95# |
9200-9250 |
9100-9150 |
-100/-100 |
-1.09%/-1.08% |
|
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8560-9150 |
8480-9100 |
-80/-50 |
-0.93%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
8760-9450 |
8680-9400 |
-80/-50 |
-0.91%/-0.53% |
|
|
Hunan |
92# |
8600-8750 |
8520-8600 |
-80/-150 |
-0.93%/-1.71% |
|
95# |
8750-8900 |
8670-8850 |
-80/-50 |
-0.91%/-0.56% |
(4) North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.2 |
Price 11.9 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Inner Mongolia Autonomous region |
92# |
8800-8800 |
8350-8350 |
-450/-450 |
-5.11%/-5.11% |
|
95# |
9000-9000 |
8550-8550 |
-450/-450 |
-5.00%/-5.00% |
|
|
Beijing |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8600-8600 |
-50/-50 |
-0.58%/-0.58% |
|
95# |
8850-8950 |
8800-8900 |
-50/-50 |
-0.56%/-0.56% |
|
|
Tianjin |
92# |
8150-8350 |
8150-8300 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.60% |
|
95# |
8350-8550 |
8350-8550 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Shanxi Province |
92# |
8400-9600 |
8440-9600 |
40/0 |
0.48%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8630-10000 |
8700-9900 |
70/-100 |
0.81%/-1.00% |
|
|
Hebei |
92# |
8460-8750 |
8360-8600 |
-100/-150 |
-1.18%/-1.71% |
|
95# |
8660-8950 |
8560-8820 |
-100/-130 |
-1.15%/-1.45% |
|
|
Henan |
92# |
8500-9050 |
8370-9050 |
-130/0 |
-1.53%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-9420 |
8650-9420 |
-100/0 |
-1.14%/0.00% |
(5) South China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.2 |
Price 11.9 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Guangdong |
92# |
8700-9680 |
8500-9650 |
-200/-30 |
-2.30%/-0.31% |
|
95# |
9000-9950 |
8950-9800 |
-50/-150 |
-0.56%/-1.51% |
|
|
Hainan |
92# |
9000-9300 |
9000-9000 |
0/-300 |
0.00%/-3.23% |
|
95# |
9200-9500 |
9200-9200 |
0/-300 |
0.00%/-3.16% |
|
|
Fujian |
92# |
8600-8850 |
8550-8850 |
-50/0 |
-0.58%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8850-9100 |
8800-9100 |
-50/0 |
-0.56%/0.00% |
(6) Northwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.2 |
Price 11.9 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8900-10000 |
8450-9900 |
-450/-100 |
-5.06%/-1.00% |
|
95# |
9100-10380 |
8650-10270 |
-450/-110 |
-4.95%/-1.06% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
10277-10277 |
10179-10179 |
-98/-98 |
-0.95%/-0.95% |
|
95# |
10815-10815 |
10555-10758 |
-260/-57 |
-2.40%/-0.53% |
|
|
Gansu |
92# |
8450-10610 |
8350-10460 |
-100/-150 |
-1.18%/-1.41% |
|
95# |
9200-11230 |
9300-11074 |
100/-156 |
1.09%/-1.39% |
|
|
Xizang Autonomous region |
92# |
9920-9920 |
9720-9720 |
-200/-200 |
-2.02%/-2.02% |
|
95# |
10320-10320 |
10120-10120 |
-200/-200 |
-1.94%/-1.94% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8330-9816 |
8150-9816 |
-180/0 |
-2.16%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8530-10186 |
8250-10186 |
-280/0 |
-3.28%/0.00% |
|
|
Qinghai |
92# |
9450-9450 |
9250-9250 |
-200/-200 |
-2.12%/-2.12% |
|
95# |
9850-9850 |
9650-9650 |
-200/-200 |
-2.03%/-2.03% |
(7) Southwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.2 |
Price 11.9 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Yunnan |
92# |
8830-8980 |
8850-9000 |
20/20 |
0.23%/0.22% |
|
95# |
9280-9430 |
9300-9450 |
20/20 |
0.22%/0.21% |
|
|
Sichuan |
92# |
9100-9200 |
8600-9050 |
-500/-150 |
-5.49%/-1.63% |
|
95# |
9300-9500 |
9150-9350 |
-150/-150 |
-1.61%/-1.58% |
|
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
92# |
8750-10780 |
8600-10780 |
-150/0 |
-1.71%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9000-11410 |
8850-11410 |
-150/0 |
-1.67%/0.00% |
|
|
Guizhou |
92# |
9000-9050 |
8800-9000 |
-200/-50 |
-2.22%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
9300-9350 |
9100-9300 |
-200/-50 |
-2.15%/-0.53% |
|
|
Chongqing |
92# |
8600-9200 |
8580-9400 |
-20/200 |
-0.23%/2.17% |
|
95# |
8900-9450 |
8900-9750 |
0/300 |
0.00%/3.17% |
(8) Northeast geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.2 |
Price 11.9 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8300-8400 |
8300-8400 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8600-8600 |
8600-8600 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(9) East China geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.2 |
Price 11.9 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8120-8250 |
8050-8150 |
-70/-100 |
-0.86%/-1.21% |
|
95# |
8240-8420 |
8170-8320 |
-70/-100 |
-0.85%/-1.19% |
(10) Central China Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.2 |
Price 11.9 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8310-8310 |
8270-8270 |
-40/-40 |
-0.48%/-0.48% |
|
95# |
8510-8510 |
8470-8470 |
-40/-40 |
-0.47%/-0.47% |
(11) geochemistry in North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.2 |
Price 11.9 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Henan |
92# |
8030-8040 |
8030-8050 |
0/10 |
0.00%/0.12% |
|
95# |
8090-8180 |
8100-8180 |
10/0 |
0.12%/0.00% |
(12) Shandong Geolian
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.2 |
Price 11.9 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong |
92# |
7950-8250 |
7950-8250 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8080-8460 |
8080-8460 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(13) Northwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.2 |
Price 11.9 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8050-8100 |
8000-8100 |
-50/0 |
-0.62%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8200-8250 |
8150-8250 |
-50/0 |
-0.61%/0.00% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8250-8250 |
8150-8150 |
-100/-100 |
-1.21%/-1.21% |
|
95# |
8450-8450 |
8350-8350 |
-100/-100 |
-1.18%/-1.18% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8550-8550 |
-150/-150 |
-1.72%/-1.72% |
(14) Southwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.2 |
Price 11.9 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Sichuan Province |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8550-8550 |
-100/-100 |
-1.16%/-1.16% |
|
95# |
8800-8800 |
8700-8700 |
-100/-100 |
-1.14%/-1.14% |
V. Future forecast
In terms of international crude oil, geopolitical events have eased somewhat, coupled with the still weak performance in the global economy, higher-than-expected growth in US commercial crude oil inventories in inventories, and Cushing inventory data are also on an upward trend. the supply and demand pattern is loose, and oil prices may continue to operate under pressure next week. From the demand point of view, currently in the traditional demand off-season lack of holiday support, superposition is about to enter winter, some areas of environmental control or more frequent, car travel is limited. From the supply point of view, next week into the middle of the month, the main unit refinery monthly task is poor, the stack demand support is insufficient, or the transaction preferential policy is not reduced. On the whole, there is no obvious positive boost in the gasoline market for the time being, and there is more wait-and-see mood. In addition, the new round of crude oil change rate is negative, the news side is negative support, it is expected that there is still room for downward adjustment in China's gasoline market in the short term.
VI. Operating rate
This week (20231103-20231109) China's main units and local refineries continued to reduce crude oil processing load, of which the capacity utilization rate of main units was 76.04%, down 2.49% from last week, and the operating rate of independent refineries was 62.97%, down 1.28% from last week.
Supply and demand & profit
Supply and demand: this week, China's oil product output is 3.0276 million tons, China's main output is 2.1473 million tons, China's independent refineries output 880300 tons, China's independent refinery gasoline sales of 903200 tons, China's commercial inventory of 13.2877 million tons.
Profit: main comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 221.34 yuan / ton, georefining comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 380 yuan / ton, atmospheric and vacuum weekly production gross profit 228 yuan / ton, FCC weekly production gross profit-481 yuan / ton, delayed coking weekly production gross profit 522 yuan / ton.
VIII. Plant maintenance schedule
|
Maintenance schedule of main refineries in China |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Beihai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Catalytic cracking |
210 |
March 1, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Daqing Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
550 |
August 3, 2023 |
September 23, 2023 |
|
Daqing Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 24, 2023 |
|
Guangzhou Petrochemical Corporation |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
500 |
October 15, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Harbin Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
435 |
May 5, 2023 |
June 23, 2023 |
|
Huizhou Refining and Chemical Industry |
The first phase of the whole plant |
1200 |
March 15, 2023 |
Mid-May 2023 |
|
Jinling Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
600 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 26, 2023 |
|
Lanzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1050 |
June 11, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Liaoyang Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
900 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 24, 2023 |
|
Luoyang Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
May 15, 2023 |
July 14, 2023 |
|
Qingdao Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1200 |
May 16, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Sichuan Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
September 15, 2023 |
November 20, 2023 |
|
Tahe petrochemical |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 19, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Urumqi petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
850 |
April 15, 2023 |
June 18, 2023 |
|
Dongxing in Zhanjiang |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 5, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Changqing Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
April 1, 2023 |
May 25, 2023 |
|
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
1000 |
March 10, 2023 |
May 5, 2023 |
|
China National Oil and Gas Taizhou |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
May 12, 2023 |
End of June 2023 |
|
Qingdao Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 7, 2023 |
End of November 2023 |
|
Maintenance schedule of local refinery plant |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Dalian Hengli |
Hydrogenation of wax oil and residue |
/ |
May 20, 2023 |
Early July 2023 |
|
Dalian Jinyuan |
Whole plant overhaul |
220 |
July 10, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Dongying Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
March 12, 2023 |
May 10, 2023 |
|
Fengli petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
260 |
July 20, 2023 |
August 20, 2023 |
|
Fu Haichuang |
Whole plant overhaul |
700 |
June 16, 2023 |
September 15, 2023 |
|
Kenli Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 15, 2023 |
|
Lanqiao Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
June 15, 2023 |
August 2, 2023 |
|
Lijin refining and chemical industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 19, 2023 |
September 18, 2023 |
|
United petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
420 |
April 9, 2023 |
May 19, 2023 |
|
Liaoning Baolai |
Catalysis, hydrogenation, etc. |
/ |
January 30, 2023 |
February 23, 2023 |
|
Whole plant overhaul |
2400 |
August 1, 2023 |
September 2023 |
|
|
Liaoning Huajin |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 8, 2023 |
March 15, 2023 |
|
Ninglu Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection of the whole plant |
120 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 5, 2023 |
|
Panjin Haoye |
Fault shutdown |
650 |
January 15, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Qicheng petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
350 |
August 5, 2023 |
Mid-September 2023 |
|
Shenchi chemical industry |
Catalytic cracking |
120 |
January 22, 2023 |
February 20, 2023 |
|
Wantong Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
July 13, 2023 |
August 30, 2023 |
|
Wudi Xinyue |
Whole plant overhaul |
240 |
June 26, 2023 |
Early September 2023 |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
April 26, 2023 |
August 10, 2023 |
|
Xintai Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
220 |
End of February 2023 |
July 22, 2023 |
|
Yatong Petrochemical |
Hydrocracking |
200 |
May 27, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Yan'an Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
560 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 26, 2023 |
|
Zhonghe petrochemical |
Catalysis |
/ |
November 8, 2023 |
To be determined |
|
China and overseas |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
February 28, 2023 |
April 20, 2023 |
|
Yongping Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
460 |
September 4, 2023 |
September 20, 2023 |
|
Huaxing petrochemical |
Catalysis, coking |
/ |
October 16, 2023 |
November 2023 |
