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Gasoline Special issue-20231102 issue
I. International crude oil futures price
|
Date |
WTI |
Brent |
Muerban |
DME Oman |
Shanghai crude oil |
WTI/ Brent spread |
Brent / DME Oman spread |
|
20231025 |
85.39 |
90.13 |
91.57 |
89.04 |
666 |
-4.74 |
1.09 |
|
20231101 |
80.44 |
84.63 |
85.7 |
86.26 |
651.9 |
-4.19 |
-1.63 |
|
The rate of change compared with last week |
-5.80% |
-6.10% |
-6.41% |
-3.12% |
-2.12% |
-11.60% |
-249.54% |
|
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. |
|||||||
II. Summary of gasoline market
This week (20231027-20231102) China's gasoline market continued to decline, but the decline narrowed, mostly concentrated in 50-200 yuan / ton. Gasoline prices in Northwest China remain relatively stable. The ex-factory price of the refinery will be reduced by 60-200 yuan / ton. The main factors of the gasoline market this week: 1. International crude oil: the situation in the Middle East has not yet further escalated, the uncertain support of geopolitical events has weakened, the superimposed economic outlook is poor, and the market is more worried about the slow global economic growth. International oil prices fell significantly during the week. 2. Chinese market: the gasoline market has been declining for many days in a row, and the decline in prices is now at a relatively low level. On the supply side, a number of refineries reduce the processing load to ease the pressure on the supply side. Under the expectation of lower supply, traders' low hoarding operations have increased, but there has been no obvious improvement in terminal demand, dragging down the market.
III. Gasoline price index
According to Tudor data, as of November 2, China's gasoline price index was 8811.14, down 123.59 from last week, or 1.38%, down 1.38%. The gasoline price index fell 131.47, or 1.42%, from last week. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 332.67.
IV. Spot market for gasoline
1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China
|
Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 10.26 |
Price 11.2 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
North China region |
92# |
8400-9600 |
8150-9600 |
-250/0 |
-2.98%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8600-10000 |
8350-10000 |
-250/0 |
-2.91%/0.00% |
|
|
South China |
92# |
8650-9650 |
8600-9680 |
-50/30 |
-0.58%/0.31% |
|
95# |
8900-9950 |
8850-9980 |
-50/30 |
-0.56%/0.30% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8600-9200 |
8500-9000 |
-100/-200 |
-1.16%/-2.17% |
|
95# |
8750-9400 |
8650-9450 |
-100/50 |
-1.14%/0.53% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8550-9650 |
8400-9650 |
-150/0 |
-1.75%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-10000 |
8600-10000 |
-150/0 |
-1.71%/0.00% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8330-10000 |
8330-10000 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8530-10450 |
8530-10450 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8750-9330 |
8600-9200 |
-150/-130 |
-1.71%/-1.39% |
|
95# |
9000-9650 |
8850-9500 |
-150/-150 |
-1.67%/-1.55% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8600-9800 |
8450-9800 |
-150/0 |
-1.74%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-10000 |
8800-10000 |
-100/0 |
-1.12%/0.00% |
|
|
Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 10.26 |
Price 11.2 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
8050-8380 |
7950-8250 |
-100/-130 |
-1.24%/-1.55% |
|
95# |
8180-8600 |
8080-8460 |
-100/-140 |
-1.22%/-1.63% |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8110-8220 |
8030-8040 |
-80/-180 |
-0.99%/-2.19% |
|
95# |
8250-8280 |
8090-8180 |
-160/-100 |
-1.94%/-1.21% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8370-8370 |
8310-8310 |
-60/-60 |
-0.72%/-0.72% |
|
95# |
8570-8570 |
8510-8510 |
-60/-60 |
-0.70%/-0.70% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8200-8380 |
8120-8250 |
-80/-130 |
-0.98%/-1.55% |
|
95# |
8320-8550 |
8240-8420 |
-80/-130 |
-0.96%/-1.52% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8250-8250 |
8050-8250 |
-200/0 |
-2.42%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8350-8450 |
8200-8450 |
-150/0 |
-1.80%/0.00% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8450-8700 |
8300-8400 |
-150/-300 |
-1.78%/-3.45% |
|
95# |
8900-8900 |
8600-8600 |
-300/-300 |
-3.37%/-3.37% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8650-8650 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8800-8800 |
8800-8800 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions
(1) Northeast China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.26 |
Price 11.2 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8820-9800 |
8700-9800 |
-120/0 |
-1.36%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9450-10150 |
9450-10150 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
8700-9200 |
8450-9100 |
-250/-100 |
-2.87%/-1.09% |
|
95# |
9000-9790 |
8650-9500 |
-350/-290 |
-3.89%/-2.96% |
|
|
Heilongjiang Province |
92# |
8820-8820 |
8550-8550 |
-270/-270 |
-3.06%/-3.06% |
|
95# |
9450-9450 |
9000-9000 |
-450/-450 |
-4.76%/-4.76% |
(2) East China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.26 |
Price 11.2 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shanghai |
92# |
8650-8800 |
8450-8600 |
-200/-200 |
-2.31%/-2.27% |
|
95# |
8850-9000 |
8650-8800 |
-200/-200 |
-2.26%/-2.22% |
|
|
Shandong |
92# |
8650-9650 |
8600-9650 |
-50/0 |
-0.58%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-10000 |
8750-10000 |
-150/0 |
-1.69%/0.00% |
|
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8750-8950 |
8650-8700 |
-100/-250 |
-1.14%/-2.79% |
|
95# |
9000-9250 |
8900-8950 |
-100/-300 |
-1.11%/-3.24% |
|
|
Zhejiang |
92# |
8800-9000 |
8800-8900 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.11% |
|
95# |
9000-9250 |
9000-9150 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.08% |
(3) Central China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.26 |
Price 11.2 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Anhui Province |
92# |
8800-8950 |
8700-8900 |
-100/-50 |
-1.14%/-0.56% |
|
95# |
9000-9150 |
8900-9100 |
-100/-50 |
-1.11%/-0.55% |
|
|
Jiangxi Province |
92# |
9050-9200 |
8850-9000 |
-200/-200 |
-2.21%/-2.17% |
|
95# |
9350-9400 |
9200-9250 |
-150/-150 |
-1.60%/-1.60% |
|
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8700-9150 |
8560-9150 |
-140/0 |
-1.61%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-9450 |
8760-9450 |
-140/0 |
-1.57%/0.00% |
|
|
Hunan |
92# |
8700-8800 |
8600-8750 |
-100/-50 |
-1.15%/-0.57% |
|
95# |
8900-9050 |
8750-8900 |
-150/-150 |
-1.69%/-1.66% |
(4) North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.26 |
Price 11.2 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Inner Mongolia Autonomous region |
92# |
8800-8900 |
8800-8800 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.12% |
|
95# |
9000-9100 |
9000-9000 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.10% |
|
|
Beijing |
92# |
8800-8800 |
8650-8650 |
-150/-150 |
-1.70%/-1.70% |
|
95# |
9000-9100 |
8850-8950 |
-150/-150 |
-1.67%/-1.65% |
|
|
Tianjin |
92# |
8350-8450 |
8150-8350 |
-200/-100 |
-2.40%/-1.18% |
|
95# |
8550-8750 |
8350-8550 |
-200/-200 |
-2.34%/-2.29% |
|
|
Shanxi Province |
92# |
8600-9600 |
8400-9600 |
-200/0 |
-2.33%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9000-10000 |
8630-10000 |
-370/0 |
-4.11%/0.00% |
|
|
Hebei |
92# |
8660-8900 |
8460-8750 |
-200/-150 |
-2.31%/-1.69% |
|
95# |
8860-9100 |
8660-8950 |
-200/-150 |
-2.26%/-1.65% |
|
|
Henan |
92# |
8650-9050 |
8500-9050 |
-150/0 |
-1.73%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8900-9420 |
8750-9420 |
-150/0 |
-1.69%/0.00% |
(5) South China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.26 |
Price 11.2 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Guangdong |
92# |
8800-9680 |
8700-9680 |
-100/0 |
-1.14%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9100-9950 |
9000-9950 |
-100/0 |
-1.10%/0.00% |
|
|
Hainan |
92# |
9300-9300 |
9000-9300 |
-300/0 |
-3.23%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9500-9500 |
9200-9500 |
-300/0 |
-3.16%/0.00% |
|
|
Fujian |
92# |
8850-9150 |
8600-8850 |
-250/-300 |
-2.82%/-3.28% |
|
95# |
9100-9400 |
8850-9100 |
-250/-300 |
-2.75%/-3.19% |
(6) Northwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.26 |
Price 11.2 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8900-10000 |
8900-10000 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9100-10380 |
9100-10380 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
10277-10277 |
10277-10277 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
10865-10865 |
10815-10815 |
-50/-50 |
-0.46%/-0.46% |
|
|
Gansu |
92# |
8650-10610 |
8450-10610 |
-200/0 |
-2.31%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9200-11230 |
9200-11230 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Xizang Autonomous region |
92# |
9980-9980 |
9920-9920 |
-60/-60 |
-0.60%/-0.60% |
|
95# |
10380-10380 |
10320-10320 |
-60/-60 |
-0.58%/-0.58% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8330-10088 |
8330-9816 |
0/-272 |
0.00%/-2.70% |
|
95# |
8530-10468 |
8530-10186 |
0/-282 |
0.00%/-2.69% |
|
|
Qinghai |
92# |
9510-9510 |
9450-9450 |
-60/-60 |
-0.63%/-0.63% |
|
95# |
9910-9910 |
9850-9850 |
-60/-60 |
-0.61%/-0.61% |
(7) Southwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.26 |
Price 11.2 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Yunnan |
92# |
9050-9200 |
8830-8980 |
-220/-220 |
-2.43%/-2.39% |
|
95# |
9500-9650 |
9280-9430 |
-220/-220 |
-2.32%/-2.28% |
|
|
Sichuan |
92# |
9200-9280 |
9100-9200 |
-100/-80 |
-1.09%/-0.86% |
|
95# |
9480-9600 |
9300-9500 |
-180/-100 |
-1.90%/-1.04% |
|
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
92# |
8750-10780 |
8750-10780 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9000-11410 |
9000-11410 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Guizhou |
92# |
9050-9100 |
9000-9050 |
-50/-50 |
-0.55%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
9300-9400 |
9300-9350 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.53% |
|
|
Chongqing |
92# |
8800-9200 |
8600-9200 |
-200/0 |
-2.27%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9100-9450 |
8900-9450 |
-200/0 |
-2.20%/0.00% |
(8) Northeast geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.26 |
Price 11.2 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8600-8700 |
8300-8400 |
-300/-300 |
-3.49%/-3.45% |
|
95# |
9000-8900 |
8600-8600 |
-400/-300 |
-4.44%/-3.37% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(9) East China geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.26 |
Price 11.2 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8200-8380 |
8120-8250 |
-80/-130 |
-0.98%/-1.55% |
|
95# |
8320-8550 |
8240-8420 |
-80/-130 |
-0.96%/-1.52% |
(10) Central China Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.26 |
Price 11.2 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8370-8370 |
8310-8310 |
-60/-60 |
-0.72%/-0.72% |
|
95# |
8570-8570 |
8510-8510 |
-60/-60 |
-0.70%/-0.70% |
(11) geochemistry in North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.26 |
Price 11.2 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Henan |
92# |
8110-8220 |
8030-8040 |
-80/-180 |
-0.99%/-2.19% |
|
95# |
8250-8280 |
8090-8180 |
-160/-100 |
-1.94%/-1.21% |
(12) Shandong Geolian
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.26 |
Price 11.2 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong |
92# |
8050-8380 |
7950-8250 |
-100/-130 |
-1.24%/-1.55% |
|
95# |
8180-8600 |
8080-8460 |
-100/-140 |
-1.22%/-1.63% |
(13) Northwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.26 |
Price 11.2 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8250-8250 |
8050-8100 |
-200/-150 |
-2.42%/-1.82% |
|
95# |
8400-8400 |
8200-8250 |
-200/-150 |
-2.38%/-1.79% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8250-8250 |
8250-8250 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8450-8450 |
8450-8450 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
8950-8950 |
8700-8700 |
-250/-250 |
-2.79%/-2.79% |
(14) Southwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.26 |
Price 11.2 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Sichuan Province |
92# |
8650-8650 |
8650-8650 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8800-8800 |
8800-8800 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
V. Future forecast
From the perspective of international crude oil, geopolitical uncertainty continues and further observation is needed. In addition, the PMI of China's Caixin manufacturing industry in October was lower than expected, while US crude oil production rose and was bad for oil prices. Negative factors increase oil prices are under pressure to operate, but the OPEC+ production reduction policy is still continuing, and the low-end support of oil prices is OK. From the point of view of demand, entering the off-season of traditional demand, gasoline consumption is dominated by daily travel, the overall performance of demand is light and the support is weak. From the supply side, in the case of strong supply and weak demand and low refining profits, many refineries reduce processing load and production, the main production scheduling plan exists in November, and local refineries are also reducing load. In the case of tight supply expectations, traders hoarding operations may increase, but the superimposed demand is poor or inhibit the upward trend and finally return to rational purchasing. Taken together, China's gasoline market is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term.
VI. Operating rate
This week (20231027-20231102) a number of Chinese refineries reduced their crude oil processing load, especially the capacity utilization rate of local refineries decreased significantly, of which the capacity utilization rate of the main unit was 78.53%, down 0.84% from last week; the operating rate of independent refineries was 64.25%, down 3.89% from last week.
Supply and demand & profit
Supply and demand: this week, China's oil product output is 3.1351 million tons, China's main output is 2.2296 million tons, China's independent refineries output 905500 tons, China's independent refinery gasoline sales of 946600 tons, China's commercial inventory of 13.4165 million tons.
Profit: main comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit-162.87 yuan / ton, georefining comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 290.09 yuan / ton, atmospheric and vacuum weekly production gross profit 18 yuan / ton, FCC weekly production gross profit-507 yuan / ton, delayed coking weekly production gross profit 462 yuan / ton.
VIII. Plant maintenance schedule
|
Maintenance schedule of main refineries in China |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Beihai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Catalytic cracking |
210 |
March 1, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Daqing Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
550 |
August 3, 2023 |
September 23, 2023 |
|
Daqing Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 24, 2023 |
|
Guangzhou Petrochemical Corporation |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
500 |
October 15, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Harbin Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
435 |
May 5, 2023 |
June 23, 2023 |
|
Huizhou Refining and Chemical Industry |
The first phase of the whole plant |
1200 |
March 15, 2023 |
Mid-May 2023 |
|
Jinling Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
600 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 26, 2023 |
|
Lanzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1050 |
June 11, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Liaoyang Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
900 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 24, 2023 |
|
Luoyang Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
May 15, 2023 |
July 14, 2023 |
|
Qingdao Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1200 |
May 16, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Sichuan Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
September 15, 2023 |
November 20, 2023 |
|
Tahe petrochemical |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 19, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Urumqi petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
850 |
April 15, 2023 |
June 18, 2023 |
|
Dongxing in Zhanjiang |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 5, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Changqing Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
April 1, 2023 |
May 25, 2023 |
|
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
1000 |
March 10, 2023 |
May 5, 2023 |
|
China National Oil and Gas Taizhou |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
May 12, 2023 |
End of June 2023 |
|
Qingdao Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 7, 2023 |
End of November 2023 |
|
Maintenance schedule of local refinery plant |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Dalian Hengli |
Hydrogenation of wax oil and residue |
/ |
May 20, 2023 |
Early July 2023 |
|
Dalian Jinyuan |
Whole plant overhaul |
220 |
July 10, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Dongying Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
March 12, 2023 |
May 10, 2023 |
|
Fengli petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
260 |
July 20, 2023 |
August 20, 2023 |
|
Fu Haichuang |
Whole plant overhaul |
700 |
June 16, 2023 |
September 15, 2023 |
|
Kenli Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 15, 2023 |
|
Lanqiao Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
June 15, 2023 |
August 2, 2023 |
|
Lijin refining and chemical industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 19, 2023 |
September 18, 2023 |
|
United petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
420 |
April 9, 2023 |
May 19, 2023 |
|
Liaoning Baolai |
Catalysis, hydrogenation, etc. |
/ |
January 30, 2023 |
February 23, 2023 |
|
Whole plant overhaul |
2400 |
August 1, 2023 |
September 2023 |
|
|
Liaoning Huajin |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 8, 2023 |
March 15, 2023 |
|
Ninglu Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection of the whole plant |
120 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 5, 2023 |
|
Panjin Haoye |
Fault shutdown |
650 |
January 15, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Qicheng petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
350 |
August 5, 2023 |
Mid-September 2023 |
|
Shenchi chemical industry |
Catalytic cracking |
120 |
January 22, 2023 |
February 20, 2023 |
|
Wantong Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
July 13, 2023 |
August 30, 2023 |
|
Wudi Xinyue |
Whole plant overhaul |
240 |
June 26, 2023 |
Early September 2023 |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
April 26, 2023 |
August 10, 2023 |
|
Xintai Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
220 |
End of February 2023 |
July 22, 2023 |
|
Yatong Petrochemical |
Hydrocracking |
200 |
May 27, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Yan'an Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
560 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 26, 2023 |
|
Zhonghe petrochemical |
Catalysis |
100 |
March 31, 2023 |
April 15, 2023 |
|
China and overseas |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
February 28, 2023 |
April 20, 2023 |
|
Yongping Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
460 |
September 4, 2023 |
September 20, 2023 |
|
Huaxing petrochemical |
Catalysis, coking |
/ |
October 16, 2023 |
November 2023 |
