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Gasoline Special issue-20231012 issue
I. International crude oil futures price
|
Date |
WTI |
Brent |
Muerban |
DME Oman |
Shanghai crude oil |
WTI/ Brent spread |
Brent / DME Oman spread |
|
20231005 |
82.31 |
84.07 |
86.11 |
86.25 |
Close the market |
-1.76 |
-2.18 |
|
20231011 |
83.49 |
85.82 |
87.9 |
88.18 |
-2.33 |
-2.36 |
-2.33 |
|
The rate of change compared with last week |
1.43% |
2.08% |
2.08% |
2.24% |
- |
34.09% |
6.88% |
|
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. |
|||||||
II. Summary of gasoline market
This week (20231007-20231012), the wholesale price of gasoline in all regions of China was reduced as a whole, with a reduction of 50-220 yuan per ton. The ex-factory price of the refinery is also reduced by 50-150 yuan / ton. The main factors of the gasoline market this week: 1. International crude oil: the market weighs whether the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has an impact on the crude oil supply in the Middle East, but it has not posed a direct threat to the crude oil supply at present, and the market is worried about it. During the week, the crude oil market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. 2. Chinese market: the performance pressure of the sales unit at the beginning of the month is general, but the replenishment intensity in the middle and lower reaches is less than the expected duration after the festival, the terminal demand support is insufficient, the market trading is light, and the price mentality of the refinery is weak. 3. Under the influence of the rate of change of international crude oil during the price adjustment cycle, the price limit was lowered during the week, including 85 yuan per ton for gasoline (standard).
III. Gasoline price index
According to Tudor data, as of October 12, China's gasoline price index was 9291.88, down 89.34% from last week, a drop of 0.95%. The gasoline price index was 9616.46, down 96.81 or 1.00% from last week. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 324.58.
IV. Spot market for gasoline
1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China
|
Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 10.7 |
Price 10.12 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
North China region |
92# |
8800-10130 |
8750-9650 |
-50/-480 |
-0.57%/-4.74% |
|
95# |
9000-10510 |
8950-10000 |
-50/-510 |
-0.56%/-4.85% |
|
|
South China |
92# |
9100-9750 |
9050-9750 |
-50/0 |
-0.55%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9350-10050 |
9300-10050 |
-50/0 |
-0.53%/0.00% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
9050-9500 |
8950-9300 |
-100/-200 |
-1.10%/-2.11% |
|
95# |
9200-9700 |
9100-9500 |
-100/-200 |
-1.09%/-2.06% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8950-9650 |
8950-9650 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9150-10000 |
9100-10000 |
-50/0 |
-0.55%/0.00% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8950-10134 |
8950-10050 |
0/-84 |
0.00%/-0.83% |
|
95# |
9150-10620 |
9150-10450 |
0/-170 |
0.00%/-1.60% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
9250-9760 |
9200-9550 |
-50/-210 |
-0.54%/-2.15% |
|
95# |
9500-10100 |
9450-9950 |
-50/-150 |
-0.53%/-1.49% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
9150-9850 |
9150-9800 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.51% |
|
95# |
9500-10220 |
9450-10000 |
-50/-220 |
-0.53%/-2.15% |
|
|
Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 10.7 |
Price 10.12 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
8510-8970 |
8440-8830 |
-70/-140 |
-0.82%/-1.56% |
|
95# |
8660-9050 |
8550-8910 |
-110/-140 |
-1.27%/-1.55% |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8700-8740 |
8590-8600 |
-110/-140 |
-1.26%/-1.60% |
|
95# |
8750-8840 |
8650-8690 |
-100/-150 |
-1.14%/-1.70% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8960-8960 |
8810-8810 |
-150/-150 |
-1.67%/-1.67% |
|
95# |
9160-9160 |
9010-9010 |
-150/-150 |
-1.64%/-1.64% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8670-8800 |
8580-8660 |
-90/-140 |
-1.04%/-1.59% |
|
95# |
8790-8970 |
8700-8830 |
-90/-140 |
-1.02%/-1.56% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8800-8950 |
8750-8950 |
-50/0 |
-0.57%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8950-9150 |
8900-9150 |
-50/0 |
-0.56%/0.00% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
9200-9200 |
9150-9150 |
-50/-50 |
-0.54%/-0.54% |
|
95# |
9400-9400 |
9350-9350 |
-50/-50 |
-0.53%/-0.53% |
|
2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions
(1) Northeast China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.7 |
Price 10.12 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
9400-9850 |
9350-9800 |
-50/-50 |
-0.53%/-0.51% |
|
95# |
10000-10220 |
9950-10150 |
-50/-70 |
-0.50%/-0.68% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
9260-9600 |
9150-9600 |
-110/0 |
-1.19%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9510-10000 |
9450-10100 |
-60/100 |
-0.63%/1.00% |
|
|
Heilongjiang Province |
92# |
9400-9400 |
9350-9350 |
-50/-50 |
-0.53%/-0.53% |
|
95# |
9650-9650 |
9550-9550 |
-100/-100 |
-1.04%/-1.04% |
(2) East China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.7 |
Price 10.12 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shanghai |
92# |
8950-9150 |
8950-9100 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
9150-9350 |
9100-9300 |
-50/-50 |
-0.55%/-0.53% |
|
|
Shandong |
92# |
9250-9650 |
9200-9650 |
-50/0 |
-0.54%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9400-10000 |
9350-10000 |
-50/0 |
-0.53%/0.00% |
|
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
9200-9250 |
9100-9150 |
-100/-100 |
-1.09%/-1.08% |
|
95# |
9450-9550 |
9350-9450 |
-100/-100 |
-1.06%/-1.05% |
|
|
Zhejiang |
92# |
9250-9400 |
9050-9350 |
-200/-50 |
-2.16%/-0.53% |
|
95# |
9450-9650 |
9400-9550 |
-50/-100 |
-0.53%/-1.04% |
(3) Central China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.7 |
Price 10.12 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Anhui Province |
92# |
9300-9400 |
9150-9200 |
-150/-200 |
-1.61%/-2.13% |
|
95# |
9500-9600 |
9300-9400 |
-200/-200 |
-2.11%/-2.08% |
|
|
Jiangxi Province |
92# |
9300-9500 |
9300-9300 |
0/-200 |
0.00%/-2.11% |
|
95# |
9600-9700 |
9500-9600 |
-100/-100 |
-1.04%/-1.03% |
|
|
Hubei province |
92# |
9100-9300 |
9000-9300 |
-100/0 |
-1.10%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9300-9600 |
9200-9450 |
-100/-150 |
-1.08%/-1.56% |
|
|
Hunan |
92# |
9070-9200 |
9100-9150 |
30/-50 |
0.33%/-0.54% |
|
95# |
9280-9450 |
9300-9400 |
20/-50 |
0.22%/-0.53% |
(4) North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.7 |
Price 10.12 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Inner Mongolia Autonomous region |
92# |
9200-9300 |
9000-9100 |
-200/-200 |
-2.17%/-2.15% |
|
95# |
9400-9400 |
9200-9300 |
-200/-100 |
-2.13%/-1.06% |
|
|
Beijing |
92# |
9300-9300 |
9250-9250 |
-50/-50 |
-0.54%/-0.54% |
|
95# |
9500-9550 |
9450-9500 |
-50/-50 |
-0.53%/-0.52% |
|
|
Tianjin |
92# |
8800-9100 |
8750-9000 |
-50/-100 |
-0.57%/-1.10% |
|
95# |
9000-9350 |
8950-9300 |
-50/-50 |
-0.56%/-0.53% |
|
|
Shanxi Province |
92# |
9110-9650 |
9010-9650 |
-100/0 |
-1.10%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9500-10000 |
9400-10000 |
-100/0 |
-1.05%/0.00% |
|
|
Hebei |
92# |
9050-10130 |
8910-9150 |
-140/-980 |
-1.55%/-9.67% |
|
95# |
9200-10510 |
9160-9400 |
-40/-1110 |
-0.43%/-10.56% |
|
|
Henan |
92# |
9200-9200 |
9100-9230 |
-100/30 |
-1.09%/0.33% |
|
95# |
9450-9570 |
9420-9470 |
-30/-100 |
-0.32%/-1.04% |
(5) South China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.7 |
Price 10.12 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Guangdong |
92# |
9350-9750 |
9200-9750 |
-150/0 |
-1.60%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9400-9650 |
9500-10050 |
100/400 |
1.06%/4.15% |
|
|
Hainan |
92# |
9450-9450 |
9400-9450 |
-50/0 |
-0.53%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9650-9650 |
9600-9650 |
-50/0 |
-0.52%/0.00% |
|
|
Fujian |
92# |
9170-9300 |
9050-9250 |
-120/-50 |
-1.31%/-0.54% |
|
95# |
9450-9550 |
9300-9500 |
-150/-50 |
-1.59%/-0.52% |
(6) Northwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.7 |
Price 10.12 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
9200-10300 |
9200-10210 |
0/-90 |
0.00%/-0.87% |
|
95# |
9400-10698 |
9400-10600 |
0/-98 |
0.00%/-0.92% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
10440-10440 |
10350-10350 |
-90/-90 |
-0.86%/-0.86% |
|
95# |
11038-11038 |
10950-10950 |
-88/-88 |
-0.80%/-0.80% |
|
|
Gansu |
92# |
9050-10770 |
9050-10680 |
0/-90 |
0.00%/-0.84% |
|
95# |
9850-11400 |
9550-11300 |
-300/-100 |
-3.05%/-0.88% |
|
|
Xizang Autonomous region |
92# |
10100-10100 |
10050-10080 |
-50/-20 |
-0.50%/-0.20% |
|
95# |
10500-10500 |
10450-10480 |
-50/-20 |
-0.48%/-0.19% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8950-10230 |
9080-10130 |
130/-100 |
1.45%/-0.98% |
|
95# |
9150-10620 |
9280-10520 |
130/-100 |
1.42%/-0.94% |
|
|
Qinghai |
92# |
9730-9730 |
9610-9610 |
-120/-120 |
-1.23%/-1.23% |
|
95# |
10130-10130 |
10450-10480 |
320/350 |
3.16%/3.46% |
(7) Southwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.7 |
Price 10.12 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Yunnan |
92# |
9500-9650 |
9350-9500 |
-150/-150 |
-1.58%/-1.55% |
|
95# |
9950-10100 |
9770-9950 |
-180/-150 |
-1.81%/-1.49% |
|
|
Sichuan |
92# |
9450-9700 |
9400-9550 |
-50/-150 |
-0.53%/-1.55% |
|
95# |
9700-10010 |
9700-9850 |
0/-160 |
0.00%/-1.60% |
|
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
92# |
9250-10940 |
9200-10860 |
-50/-80 |
-0.54%/-0.73% |
|
95# |
9500-11580 |
9450-11480 |
-50/-100 |
-0.53%/-0.86% |
|
|
Guizhou |
92# |
9550-9550 |
9400-9500 |
-150/-50 |
-1.57%/-0.52% |
|
95# |
9850-9850 |
9700-9800 |
-150/-50 |
-1.52%/-0.51% |
|
|
Chongqing |
92# |
9350-10000 |
9300-9900 |
-50/-100 |
-0.53%/-1.00% |
|
95# |
9600-10500 |
9500-10300 |
-100/-200 |
-1.04%/-1.90% |
(8) Northeast geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.7 |
Price 10.12 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
9200-9200 |
9150-9150 |
-50/-50 |
-0.54%/-0.54% |
|
95# |
9400-9400 |
9350-9350 |
-50/-50 |
-0.53%/-0.53% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(9) East China geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.7 |
Price 10.12 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8670-8800 |
8580-8660 |
-90/-140 |
-1.04%/-1.59% |
|
95# |
8790-8970 |
8700-8830 |
-90/-140 |
-1.02%/-1.56% |
(10) Central China Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.7 |
Price 10.12 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8960-8960 |
8810-8810 |
-150/-150 |
-1.67%/-1.67% |
|
95# |
9160-9160 |
9010-9010 |
-150/-150 |
-1.64%/-1.64% |
(11) geochemistry in North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.7 |
Price 10.12 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Henan |
92# |
8700-8740 |
8590-8600 |
-110/-140 |
-1.26%/-1.60% |
|
95# |
8750-8840 |
8650-8690 |
-100/-150 |
-1.14%/-1.70% |
(12) Shandong Geolian
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.7 |
Price 10.12 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong |
92# |
8510-8970 |
8440-8830 |
-70/-140 |
-0.82%/-1.56% |
|
95# |
8660-9050 |
8550-8910 |
-110/-140 |
-1.27%/-1.55% |
(13) Northwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 10.7 |
Price 10.12 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8800-8850 |
8750-8800 |
-50/-50 |
-0.57%/-0.56% |
|
95# |
8950-9000 |
8900-8950 |
-50/-50 |
-0.56%/-0.56% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8950-8950 |
8950-8950 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9150-9150 |
9150-9150 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
9400-9400 |
9350-9350 |
-50/-50 |
-0.53%/-0.53% |
V. Future forecast
From the international crude oil point of view, the current concern of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has not had an impact on the supply of crude oil. OPEC+ low-end support for oil prices is still in place, EIA inventory quotation will soon be released for oil prices may bring new guidance. From the point of view of supply, Guangzhou Petrochemical atmospheric and vacuum unit overhaul, Huaxing petrochemical catalytic and coking unit overhaul, no restart refinery for the time being. The processing load in China is expected to decline next week. But gradually into the middle and last ten days of the month, superimposed continuous out of the warehouse is not good, or mainly to the volume of shipments. In terms of demand, the fuel consumption support of automotive air conditioners is significantly reduced, the overall performance of post-holiday demand is flat, and China's gasoline market is lack of new positive support. On the whole, it is expected that China's gasoline market will be weak in the short term.
VI. Operating rate
This week (20231007-20231012) China's main capacity utilization rate was 80.3%, up from-1.80% last week, while the operating rate of independent refineries was 70.34%, up 0.10% from last week.
Supply and demand & profit
Supply and demand: this week, China's oil product output is 3.3024 million tons, China's main output is 2.2804 million tons, China's independent refineries output 1.022 million tons, China's independent refinery gasoline sales of 1.0267 million tons, China's commercial inventory of 12.6308 million tons.
Profit: main comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 560.6 yuan / ton, georefining comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 560 yuan / ton, atmospheric and vacuum weekly production gross profit 330yuan / ton, FCC weekly production gross profit-214RMB / ton, delayed coking weekly production gross profit 435RMB / ton.
VIII. Plant maintenance schedule
|
Maintenance schedule of main refineries in China |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Beihai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Catalytic cracking |
210 |
March 1, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Daqing Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
550 |
August 3, 2023 |
September 23, 2023 |
|
Daqing Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 24, 2023 |
|
Guangzhou Petrochemical Corporation |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
500 |
October 15, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Harbin Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
435 |
May 5, 2023 |
June 23, 2023 |
|
Huizhou Refining and Chemical Industry |
The first phase of the whole plant |
1200 |
March 15, 2023 |
Mid-May 2023 |
|
Jinling Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
600 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 26, 2023 |
|
Lanzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1050 |
June 11, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Liaoyang Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
900 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 24, 2023 |
|
Luoyang Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
May 15, 2023 |
July 14, 2023 |
|
Qingdao Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1200 |
May 16, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Sichuan Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
September 15, 2023 |
November 20, 2023 |
|
Tahe petrochemical |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 19, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Tianjin Petrochemical Company |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
250 |
September 5, 2023 |
October 31, 2023 |
|
Urumqi petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
850 |
April 15, 2023 |
June 18, 2023 |
|
Dongxing in Zhanjiang |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 5, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Changqing Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
April 1, 2023 |
May 25, 2023 |
|
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
1000 |
March 10, 2023 |
May 5, 2023 |
|
China National Oil and Gas Taizhou |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
May 12, 2023 |
End of June 2023 |
|
Qingdao Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 7, 2023 |
End of November 2023 |
|
Maintenance schedule of local refinery plant |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Dalian Hengli |
Hydrogenation of wax oil and residue |
/ |
May 20, 2023 |
Early July 2023 |
|
Dalian Jinyuan |
Whole plant overhaul |
220 |
July 10, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Dongying Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
March 12, 2023 |
May 10, 2023 |
|
Fengli petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
260 |
July 20, 2023 |
August 20, 2023 |
|
Fu Haichuang |
Whole plant overhaul |
700 |
June 16, 2023 |
September 15, 2023 |
|
Kenli Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 15, 2023 |
|
Lanqiao Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
June 15, 2023 |
August 2, 2023 |
|
Lijin refining and chemical industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 19, 2023 |
September 18, 2023 |
|
United petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
420 |
April 9, 2023 |
May 19, 2023 |
|
Liaoning Baolai |
Catalysis, hydrogenation, etc. |
/ |
January 30, 2023 |
February 23, 2023 |
|
Whole plant overhaul |
2400 |
August 1, 2023 |
September 2023 |
|
|
Liaoning Huajin |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 8, 2023 |
March 15, 2023 |
|
Ninglu Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection of the whole plant |
120 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 5, 2023 |
|
Panjin Haoye |
Fault shutdown |
650 |
January 15, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Qicheng petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
350 |
August 5, 2023 |
Mid-September 2023 |
|
Shenchi chemical industry |
Catalytic cracking |
120 |
January 22, 2023 |
February 20, 2023 |
|
Wantong Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
July 13, 2023 |
August 30, 2023 |
|
Wudi Xinyue |
Whole plant overhaul |
240 |
June 26, 2023 |
Early September 2023 |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
April 26, 2023 |
August 10, 2023 |
|
Xintai Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
220 |
End of February 2023 |
July 22, 2023 |
|
Yatong Petrochemical |
Hydrocracking |
200 |
May 27, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Yan'an Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
560 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 26, 2023 |
|
Zhonghe petrochemical |
Catalysis |
100 |
March 31, 2023 |
April 15, 2023 |
|
China and overseas |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
February 28, 2023 |
April 20, 2023 |
|
Yongping Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
460 |
September 4, 2023 |
September 20, 2023 |
