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Gasoline Special issue-20230928 issue
I. International crude oil futures price
|
Date |
WTI |
Brent |
Muerban |
DME Oman |
Shanghai crude oil |
WTI/ Brent spread |
Brent / DME Oman spread |
|
20230921 |
89.63 |
93.3 |
95.45 |
93.11 |
693.2 |
-3.67 |
0.19 |
|
20230927 |
93.68 |
96.55 |
96.49 |
94.31 |
694.5 |
-2.87 |
2.24 |
|
The rate of change compared with last week |
4.52% |
3.48% |
1.09% |
1.29% |
0.19% |
-21.80% |
1078.95% |
|
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. |
|||||||
II. Summary of gasoline market
This week (20230922-20230928), the wholesale price of gasoline in China was mainly reduced, with a reduction of 50-100 yuan per ton. The price of gasoline in Shandong, North China, Central China, East China and Northwest China has been reduced by 40-100 yuan per ton, and the price in Shandong has remained relatively stable. The main factors of this week's gasoline market: 1, international crude oil: the dollar index strengthened during the week, but after the announcement of a larger-than-expected decline in US crude oil inventories, the pre-production reduction atmosphere pushed oil prices up again. Brent crude oil broke through the $95 / barrel mark. 2. Chinese market: the concentrated hoarding of goods in the middle and lower reaches of the week ends before the festival, the number of large orders is reduced, and the rigid demand is mainly small. The refinery shipping speed is slow, slightly burdened, and there is a profit-making operation in the transaction, but at present, with the boost from the cost side, the refinery quotation has been revised up.
III. Gasoline price index
According to Tudor data, as of Sept. 28, China's gasoline price index was 9533.58, down 20.55% from last week, down 0.22% from last week. The gasoline price index was 9860.08, down 22.34% from last week, or 0.23%. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 326.50.
IV. Spot market for gasoline
1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China
|
Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 9.21 |
Price 9.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
North China region |
92# |
9100-10130 |
9050-10130 |
-50/0 |
-0.55%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9350-10510 |
9250-10510 |
-100/0 |
-1.07%/0.00% |
|
|
South China |
92# |
9420-9900 |
9350-9950 |
-70/50 |
-0.74%/0.51% |
|
95# |
9650-10200 |
9600-10250 |
-50/50 |
-0.52%/0.49% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
9350-9700 |
9270-9600 |
-80/-100 |
-0.86%/-1.03% |
|
95# |
9600-9950 |
9420-9850 |
-180/-100 |
-1.88%/-1.01% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
9300-9650 |
9200-9650 |
-100/0 |
-1.08%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9500-9950 |
9400-10000 |
-100/50 |
-1.05%/0.50% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
9380-10134 |
9280-10134 |
-100/0 |
-1.07%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9580-10620 |
9480-10620 |
-100/0 |
-1.04%/0.00% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
9550-9950 |
9450-9760 |
-100/-190 |
-1.05%/-1.91% |
|
95# |
9800-10300 |
9700-10210 |
-100/-90 |
-1.02%/-0.87% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
9300-9900 |
9300-9900 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9600-10400 |
9670-10400 |
70/0 |
0.73%/0.00% |
|
|
Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 9.21 |
Price 9.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
8900-9230 |
8800-9150 |
-100/-80 |
-1.12%/-0.87% |
|
95# |
9020-9380 |
8960-9300 |
-60/-80 |
-0.67%/-0.85% |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8970-9150 |
8890-9000 |
-80/-150 |
-0.89%/-1.64% |
|
95# |
9070-9200 |
8990-9050 |
-80/-150 |
-0.88%/-1.63% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
9330-9330 |
9240-9240 |
-90/-90 |
-0.96%/-0.96% |
|
95# |
9530-9530 |
9440-9440 |
-90/-90 |
-0.94%/-0.94% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8980-9090 |
8910-9050 |
-70/-40 |
-0.78%/-0.44% |
|
95# |
9100-9260 |
9030-9220 |
-70/-40 |
-0.77%/-0.43% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
9150-9350 |
9050-9250 |
-100/-100 |
-1.09%/-1.07% |
|
95# |
9300-9550 |
9200-9450 |
-100/-100 |
-1.08%/-1.05% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
9300-9300 |
9300-9300 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9500-9500 |
9500-9500 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions
(1) Northeast China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.21 |
Price 9.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
9450-9850 |
9450-9850 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
10100-10220 |
10100-10220 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
9300-9900 |
9300-9900 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9565-10440 |
9670-10440 |
105/0 |
1.10%/0.00% |
|
|
Heilongjiang Province |
92# |
9300-9300 |
9400-9400 |
100/100 |
1.08%/1.08% |
|
95# |
9600-9600 |
9700-9700 |
100/100 |
1.04%/1.04% |
(2) East China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.21 |
Price 9.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shanghai |
92# |
9300-9300 |
9150-9300 |
-150/0 |
-1.61%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9500-9500 |
9350-9500 |
-150/0 |
-1.58%/0.00% |
|
|
Shandong |
92# |
9600-9600 |
9550-9650 |
-50/50 |
-0.52%/0.52% |
|
95# |
9750-9900 |
9700-10000 |
-50/100 |
-0.51%/1.01% |
|
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
9420-9450 |
9400-9480 |
-20/30 |
-0.21%/0.32% |
|
95# |
9600-9750 |
9600-9780 |
0/30 |
0.00%/0.31% |
|
|
Zhejiang |
92# |
9450-9650 |
9400-9650 |
-50/0 |
-0.53%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9650-9900 |
9600-9900 |
-50/0 |
-0.52%/0.00% |
(3) Central China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.21 |
Price 9.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Anhui Province |
92# |
9500-9650 |
9400-9500 |
-100/-150 |
-1.05%/-1.55% |
|
95# |
9700-9850 |
9600-9700 |
-100/-150 |
-1.03%/-1.52% |
|
|
Jiangxi Province |
92# |
9450-9600 |
9400-9600 |
-50/0 |
-0.53%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9600-9800 |
9550-9850 |
-50/50 |
-0.52%/0.51% |
|
|
Hubei province |
92# |
9400-9530 |
9300-9500 |
-100/-30 |
-1.06%/-0.31% |
|
95# |
9630-9830 |
9500-9800 |
-130/-30 |
-1.35%/-0.31% |
|
|
Hunan |
92# |
9450-9700 |
9400-9500 |
-50/-200 |
-0.53%/-2.06% |
|
95# |
9650-9950 |
9600-9750 |
-50/-200 |
-0.52%/-2.01% |
(4) North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.21 |
Price 9.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Inner Mongolia Autonomous region |
92# |
9300-9350 |
9350-9400 |
50/50 |
0.54%/0.53% |
|
95# |
9500-9550 |
9550-9600 |
50/50 |
0.53%/0.52% |
|
|
Beijing |
92# |
9600-9650 |
9550-9600 |
-50/-50 |
-0.52%/-0.52% |
|
95# |
9850-9900 |
9800-9850 |
-50/-50 |
-0.51%/-0.51% |
|
|
Tianjin |
92# |
9100-9210 |
9050-9150 |
-50/-60 |
-0.55%/-0.65% |
|
95# |
9300-9410 |
9250-9350 |
-50/-60 |
-0.54%/-0.64% |
|
|
Shanxi Province |
92# |
9380-9650 |
9360-9650 |
-20/0 |
-0.21%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9600-10000 |
9550-10000 |
-50/0 |
-0.52%/0.00% |
|
|
Hebei |
92# |
9340-10130 |
9230-10130 |
-110/0 |
-1.18%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9540-10510 |
9460-10510 |
-80/0 |
-0.84%/0.00% |
|
|
Henan |
92# |
9420-9820 |
9480-9820 |
60/0 |
0.64%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9670-10190 |
9730-10190 |
60/0 |
0.62%/0.00% |
(5) South China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.21 |
Price 9.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Guangdong |
92# |
9600-9900 |
9500-9900 |
-100/0 |
-1.04%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9900-10200 |
9800-10200 |
-100/0 |
-1.01%/0.00% |
|
|
Hainan |
92# |
9450-9600 |
9450-9600 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9650-9800 |
9650-9800 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Fujian |
92# |
9420-9550 |
9320-9500 |
-100/-50 |
-1.06%/-0.52% |
|
95# |
9670-9800 |
9600-9750 |
-70/-50 |
-0.72%/-0.51% |
(6) Northwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.21 |
Price 9.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
9450-10300 |
9400-10300 |
-50/0 |
-0.53%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9650-10698 |
9600-10698 |
-50/0 |
-0.52%/0.00% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
10540-10540 |
10390-10540 |
-150/0 |
-1.42%/0.00% |
|
95# |
11138-11138 |
10988-11138 |
-150/0 |
-1.35%/0.00% |
|
|
Gansu |
92# |
9500-10770 |
9500-10770 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9900-11400 |
9850-11400 |
-50/0 |
-0.51%/0.00% |
|
|
Xizang Autonomous region |
92# |
10100-10100 |
10100-10100 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
10500-10500 |
10500-10500 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
9380-10230 |
9280-10230 |
-100/0 |
-1.07%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9580-10620 |
9480-10620 |
-100/0 |
-1.04%/0.00% |
|
|
Qinghai |
92# |
9730-9730 |
9730-9730 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
10130-10130 |
10130-10130 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(7) Southwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.21 |
Price 9.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Yunnan |
92# |
9650-9850 |
9530-9760 |
-120/-90 |
-1.24%/-0.91% |
|
95# |
10050-10300 |
9980-10200 |
-70/-100 |
-0.70%/-0.97% |
|
|
Sichuan |
92# |
9650-9800 |
9600-9750 |
-50/-50 |
-0.52%/-0.51% |
|
95# |
9930-10050 |
9800-10050 |
-130/0 |
-1.31%/0.00% |
|
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
92# |
9550-10940 |
9450-10940 |
-100/0 |
-1.05%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9900-11580 |
9700-11580 |
-200/0 |
-2.02%/0.00% |
|
|
Guizhou |
92# |
9700-9950 |
9600-9750 |
-100/-200 |
-1.03%/-2.01% |
|
95# |
10200-10250 |
9900-10100 |
-300/-150 |
-2.94%/-1.46% |
|
|
Chongqing |
92# |
9550-9600 |
9500-9550 |
-50/-50 |
-0.52%/-0.52% |
|
95# |
9800-10570 |
9750-10500 |
-50/-70 |
-0.51%/-0.66% |
(8) Northeast geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.21 |
Price 9.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
9300-9300 |
9300-9300 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9500-9500 |
9500-9500 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(9) East China geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.21 |
Price 9.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8980-9090 |
8910-9050 |
-70/-40 |
-0.78%/-0.44% |
|
95# |
9100-9260 |
9030-9220 |
-70/-40 |
-0.77%/-0.43% |
(10) Central China Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.21 |
Price 9.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Hubei province |
92# |
9330-9330 |
9240-9240 |
-90/-90 |
-0.96%/-0.96% |
|
95# |
9530-9530 |
9440-9440 |
-90/-90 |
-0.94%/-0.94% |
(11) geochemistry in North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.21 |
Price 9.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Henan |
92# |
8970-9150 |
8970-9150 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9070-9200 |
9070-9200 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(12) Shandong Geolian
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.21 |
Price 9.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong |
92# |
8900-9230 |
8800-9150 |
-100/-80 |
-1.12%/-0.87% |
|
95# |
9020-9380 |
8960-9300 |
-60/-80 |
-0.67%/-0.85% |
(13) Northwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.21 |
Price 9.28 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
9150-9200 |
9050-9100 |
-100/-100 |
-1.09%/-1.09% |
|
95# |
9300-9350 |
9200-9250 |
-100/-100 |
-1.08%/-1.07% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
9350-9350 |
9250-9250 |
-100/-100 |
-1.07%/-1.07% |
|
95# |
9550-9550 |
9450-9450 |
-100/-100 |
-1.05%/-1.05% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
9600-9600 |
9650-9650 |
50/50 |
0.52%/0.52% |
V. Future forecast
From the perspective of international crude oil, the release of US crude oil inventory data superimposed production reduction policy to stimulate the upward price of oil prices, the fundamentals of the crude oil market are still positive, and the support for oil prices is still strong. The crude oil market can support the cost end of China's gasoline market. The double-section stock preparation of the Chinese market is basically over one after another, the existing inventory is mainly consumed during the holiday period, the transportation is limited during the holiday period, there is not much replenishment in the middle and lower reaches, and the refinery price space is limited. After returning from the festival, we will enter the short-term replenishment phase, but the duration is expected to be short to support the general. Taken together, China's gasoline market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.
VI. Operating rate
The operating rate of Chinese refineries increased this week (20230922-20230928), with the utilization rate of main capacity at 82.67%, up 0.44% from last week, and that of independent refineries at 70.24%, up 2.03% from last week.
Supply and demand & profit
Supply and demand: this week, China's oil product output is 3.5054 million tons, China's main output is 2.4583 million tons, China's independent refineries output 1.0471 million tons, China's independent refinery gasoline sales of 992100 tons, China's commercial inventory of 12.9634 million tons.
Profit: main comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 712.58 yuan / ton, georefining comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 468.43 yuan / ton, atmospheric and vacuum weekly production gross profit 206yuan / ton, FCC weekly production gross profit-36 yuan / ton, delayed coking weekly production gross profit 456 yuan / ton.
VIII. Plant maintenance schedule
|
Maintenance schedule of main refineries in China |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Beihai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Catalytic cracking |
210 |
March 1, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Daqing Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
550 |
August 3, 2023 |
September 23, 2023 |
|
Daqing Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 24, 2023 |
|
Guangzhou Petrochemical Corporation |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
500 |
October 15, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Harbin Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
435 |
May 5, 2023 |
June 23, 2023 |
|
Huizhou Refining and Chemical Industry |
The first phase of the whole plant |
1200 |
March 15, 2023 |
Mid-May 2023 |
|
Jinling Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
600 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 26, 2023 |
|
Lanzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1050 |
June 11, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Liaoyang Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
900 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 24, 2023 |
|
Luoyang Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
May 15, 2023 |
July 14, 2023 |
|
Qingdao Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1200 |
May 16, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Sichuan Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
September 15, 2023 |
November 20, 2023 |
|
Tahe petrochemical |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 19, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Tianjin Petrochemical Company |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
250 |
September 5, 2023 |
October 31, 2023 |
|
Urumqi petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
850 |
April 15, 2023 |
June 18, 2023 |
|
Dongxing in Zhanjiang |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 5, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Changqing Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
April 1, 2023 |
May 25, 2023 |
|
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
1000 |
March 10, 2023 |
May 5, 2023 |
|
China National Oil and Gas Taizhou |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
May 12, 2023 |
End of June 2023 |
|
Maintenance schedule of local refinery plant |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Dalian Hengli |
Hydrogenation of wax oil and residue |
/ |
May 20, 2023 |
Early July 2023 |
|
Dalian Jinyuan |
Whole plant overhaul |
220 |
July 10, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Dongying Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
March 12, 2023 |
May 10, 2023 |
|
Fengli petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
260 |
July 20, 2023 |
August 20, 2023 |
|
Fu Haichuang |
Whole plant overhaul |
700 |
June 16, 2023 |
Early September 2023 |
|
Kenli Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 2023 |
|
Lanqiao Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
June 15, 2023 |
August 2, 2023 |
|
Lijin refining and chemical industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 1, 2023 |
October 2023 |
|
United petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
420 |
April 9, 2023 |
May 19, 2023 |
|
Liaoning Baolai |
Catalysis, hydrogenation, etc. |
/ |
January 30, 2023 |
February 23, 2023 |
|
Whole plant overhaul |
2400 |
August 1, 2023 |
September 2023 |
|
|
Liaoning Huajin |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 8, 2023 |
March 15, 2023 |
|
Ninglu Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection of the whole plant |
120 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 5, 2023 |
|
Panjin Haoye |
Fault shutdown |
650 |
January 15, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Qicheng petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
350 |
End of July 2023 |
End of September 2023 |
|
Shenchi chemical industry |
Catalytic cracking |
120 |
January 22, 2023 |
February 20, 2023 |
|
Wantong Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
July 13, 2023 |
Early September 2023 |
|
Wudi Xinyue |
Whole plant overhaul |
240 |
June 26, 2023 |
End of August 2023 |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
April 26, 2023 |
August 10, 2023 |
|
Xintai Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
220 |
End of February 2023 |
July 22, 2023 |
|
Yatong Petrochemical |
Hydrocracking |
200 |
May 27, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Yan'an Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
560 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 26, 2023 |
|
Zhonghe petrochemical |
Catalysis |
100 |
March 31, 2023 |
April 15, 2023 |
|
China and overseas |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
February 28, 2023 |
April 20, 2023 |
|
Yongping Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
460 |
September 4, 2023 |
September 20, 2023 |
