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Gasoline Special issue-20230914 issue
I. International crude oil futures price
|
Date |
WTI |
Brent |
Muerban |
DME Oman |
Shanghai crude oil |
WTI/ Brent spread |
Brent / DME Oman spread |
|
20230907 |
86.87 |
89.92 |
92.02 |
91.39 |
689.9 |
-3.05 |
-1.47 |
|
20230913 |
88.52 |
91.88 |
94.39 |
93.82 |
694.9 |
-3.36 |
-1.94 |
|
The rate of change compared with last week |
1.90% |
2.18% |
2.58% |
2.66% |
0.72% |
10.16% |
31.97% |
|
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. |
|||||||
II. Summary of gasoline market
This week (20230908-20230914), wholesale gasoline prices in China were mixed, with gasoline prices in North and East China reduced by 20,100 yuan per ton, and gasoline prices in South China, Central China, Northwest China and Southwest China increased by 50,100 yuan per ton. Ex-factory prices fluctuated slightly, with Shandong and East China reduced by 20-50 yuan per ton, and gasoline prices in North China, Central China and Northwest China increased by 20-100 yuan per ton. The main factors of the gasoline market this week: 1, international crude oil: a number of institutions reported on the crude oil market, the report is optimistic about the market outlook, tight supply is expected to support oil prices. 2. China's demand: compared with the summer vacation, the gasoline consumption of automotive air conditioners has decreased slightly, but the demand for pre-double-festival stock still exists, which supports the market. However, the relatively high price is less acceptable downstream. Refinery shipping speed is general, more flexible adjustment of quotations to stimulate shipments.
III. Gasoline price index
According to Tudor data, as of September 14, China's gasoline price index was 9401.74, down 12.55 from last week, down 0.13% from last week. The gasoline price index was 9728.51, down 7.81 from last week, or 0.08 per cent. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 326.76.
IV. Spot market for gasoline
1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China
|
Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 9.7 |
Price 9.14 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
North China region |
92# |
9050-9800 |
9030-9800 |
-20/0 |
-0.22%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9230-10160 |
9200-10160 |
-30/0 |
-0.33%/0.00% |
|
|
South China |
92# |
9250-9700 |
9250-9750 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.52% |
|
95# |
9500-10000 |
9500-10050 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.50% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
9100-9450 |
9200-9450 |
100/0 |
1.10%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9250-9750 |
9350-9750 |
100/0 |
1.08%/0.00% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
9200-9600 |
9100-9600 |
-100/0 |
-1.09%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9350-9900 |
9250-9900 |
-100/0 |
-1.07%/0.00% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
9100-10134 |
9200-10134 |
100/0 |
1.10%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9300-10910 |
9400-10910 |
100/0 |
1.08%/0.00% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
9390-9750 |
9450-9730 |
60/-20 |
0.64%/-0.21% |
|
95# |
9590-10150 |
9650-10180 |
60/30 |
0.63%/0.30% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
9130-9880 |
9130-9880 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9500-10400 |
9500-10400 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 9.7 |
Price 9.14 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
8820-9190 |
8800-9150 |
-20/-40 |
-0.23%/-0.44% |
|
95# |
8950-9300 |
8950-9260 |
0/-40 |
0.00%/-0.43% |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8880-9070 |
8910-9080 |
30/10 |
0.34%/0.11% |
|
95# |
8980-9120 |
9010-9130 |
30/10 |
0.33%/0.11% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
9160-9160 |
9180-9180 |
20/20 |
0.22%/0.22% |
|
95# |
9360-9360 |
9380-9380 |
20/20 |
0.21%/0.21% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8910-9050 |
8890-9000 |
-20/-50 |
-0.22%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
9030-9220 |
9010-9170 |
-20/-50 |
-0.22%/-0.54% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
9050-9300 |
9150-9300 |
100/0 |
1.10%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9200-9400 |
9300-9400 |
100/0 |
1.09%/0.00% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
9150-9150 |
9150-9150 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9350-9350 |
9350-9350 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions
(1) Northeast China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.7 |
Price 9.14 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
9450-9850 |
9450-9850 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
10220-10220 |
10100-10220 |
-120/0 |
-1.17%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
9130-9885 |
9130-9885 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9585-10440 |
9505-10440 |
-80/0 |
-0.83%/0.00% |
|
|
Heilongjiang Province |
92# |
9300-9300 |
9300-9300 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9600-9600 |
9600-9600 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(2) East China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.7 |
Price 9.14 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shanghai |
92# |
9150-9200 |
9100-9200 |
-50/0 |
-0.55%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9350-9400 |
9300-9400 |
-50/0 |
-0.53%/0.00% |
|
|
Shandong |
92# |
9550-9600 |
9500-9600 |
-50/0 |
-0.52%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9700-9900 |
9650-9900 |
-50/0 |
-0.52%/0.00% |
|
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
9350-9400 |
9300-9350 |
-50/-50 |
-0.53%/-0.53% |
|
95# |
9600-9700 |
9550-9650 |
-50/-50 |
-0.52%/-0.52% |
|
|
Zhejiang |
92# |
9250-9550 |
9250-9600 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.52% |
|
95# |
9450-9800 |
9450-9850 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.51% |
(3) Central China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.7 |
Price 9.14 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Anhui Province |
92# |
9250-9450 |
9230-9370 |
-20/-80 |
-0.22%/-0.85% |
|
95# |
9400-9650 |
9380-9520 |
-20/-130 |
-0.21%/-1.35% |
|
|
Jiangxi Province |
92# |
9300-9350 |
9300-9450 |
0/100 |
0.00%/1.07% |
|
95# |
9500-9550 |
9500-9650 |
0/100 |
0.00%/1.05% |
|
|
Hubei province |
92# |
9250-9450 |
9250-9450 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9400-9750 |
9450-9750 |
50/0 |
0.53%/0.00% |
|
|
Hunan |
92# |
9350-9450 |
9300-9400 |
-50/-50 |
-0.53%/-0.53% |
|
95# |
9550-9700 |
9500-9650 |
-50/-50 |
-0.52%/-0.52% |
(4) North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.7 |
Price 9.14 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Inner Mongolia Autonomous region |
92# |
9250-9300 |
9250-9300 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9450-9500 |
9450-9500 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Beijing |
92# |
9400-9450 |
9400-9450 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9600-9600 |
9650-9700 |
50/100 |
0.52%/1.04% |
|
|
Tianjin |
92# |
9020-9150 |
9000-9150 |
-20/0 |
-0.22%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9220-9400 |
9250-9550 |
30/150 |
0.33%/1.60% |
|
|
Shanxi Province |
92# |
9250-9550 |
9450-9850 |
200/300 |
2.16%/3.14% |
|
95# |
9450-9850 |
9450-9850 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Hebei |
92# |
9160-9800 |
9210-9800 |
50/0 |
0.55%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9410-10160 |
9410-10160 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Henan |
92# |
9320-9500 |
9270-9500 |
-50/0 |
-0.54%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9570-9850 |
9520-9850 |
-50/0 |
-0.52%/0.00% |
(5) South China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.7 |
Price 9.14 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Guangdong |
92# |
9450-9700 |
9450-9750 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.52% |
|
95# |
9750-10000 |
9750-10050 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.50% |
|
|
Hainan |
92# |
9400-9400 |
9350-9400 |
-50/0 |
-0.53%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9600-9600 |
9550-9600 |
-50/0 |
-0.52%/0.00% |
|
|
Fujian |
92# |
9300-9450 |
9250-9450 |
-50/0 |
-0.54%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9550-9700 |
9500-9700 |
-50/0 |
-0.52%/0.00% |
(6) Northwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.7 |
Price 9.14 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
9000-9960 |
9400-9960 |
400/0 |
4.44%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9200-10291 |
9400-10291 |
200/0 |
2.17%/0.00% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
10135-10135 |
10135-10135 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
10700-10700 |
10700-10700 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Gansu |
92# |
9300-10360 |
9300-10360 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9700-10970 |
9800-10970 |
100/0 |
1.03%/0.00% |
|
|
Xizang Autonomous region |
92# |
10050-10050 |
10050-10050 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
10450-10450 |
10450-10450 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
9200-9840 |
9200-9840 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9400-10210 |
9400-10210 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Qinghai |
92# |
9680-9680 |
9690-9690 |
10/10 |
0.10%/0.10% |
|
95# |
10080-10080 |
10090-10090 |
10/10 |
0.10%/0.10% |
(7) Southwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.7 |
Price 9.14 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Yunnan |
92# |
9450-9700 |
9480-9730 |
30/30 |
0.32%/0.31% |
|
95# |
9900-10150 |
9930-10180 |
30/30 |
0.30%/0.30% |
|
|
Sichuan |
92# |
9550-9750 |
9600-9650 |
50/-100 |
0.52%/-1.03% |
|
95# |
9900-10050 |
9900-9950 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.00% |
|
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
92# |
9450-10530 |
9450-10530 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9750-11150 |
9750-11150 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Guizhou |
92# |
9500-9550 |
9550-9600 |
50/50 |
0.53%/0.52% |
|
95# |
9800-9850 |
9900-9900 |
100/50 |
1.02%/0.51% |
|
|
Chongqing |
92# |
9390-9450 |
9450-9510 |
60/60 |
0.64%/0.63% |
|
95# |
9590-9850 |
9650-9940 |
60/90 |
0.63%/0.91% |
(8) Northeast geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.7 |
Price 9.14 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
9150-9150 |
9150-9150 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9350-9350 |
9350-9350 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(9) East China geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.7 |
Price 9.14 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8910-9050 |
8890-9000 |
-20/-50 |
-0.22%/-0.55% |
|
95# |
9030-9220 |
9010-9170 |
-20/-50 |
-0.22%/-0.54% |
(10) Central China Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.7 |
Price 9.14 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Hubei province |
92# |
9160-9160 |
9180-9180 |
20/20 |
0.22%/0.22% |
|
95# |
9360-9360 |
9380-9380 |
20/20 |
0.21%/0.21% |
(11) geochemistry in North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.7 |
Price 9.14 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Henan |
92# |
8880-9070 |
8910-9080 |
30/10 |
0.34%/0.11% |
|
95# |
8980-9120 |
9010-9130 |
30/10 |
0.33%/0.11% |
(12) Shandong Geolian
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.7 |
Price 9.14 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong |
92# |
8820-9190 |
8800-9150 |
-20/-40 |
-0.23%/-0.44% |
|
95# |
8950-9300 |
8950-9260 |
0/-40 |
0.00%/-0.43% |
(13) Northwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 9.7 |
Price 9.14 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
9050-9150 |
9150-9150 |
100/0 |
1.10%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9200-9300 |
9300-9300 |
100/0 |
1.09%/0.00% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
9200-9200 |
9200-9200 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9400-9400 |
9400-9400 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
9300-9300 |
9350-9350 |
50/50 |
0.54%/0.54% |
V. Future forecast
From the perspective of international crude oil, the price of WTI crude oil is currently above 90 US dollars per barrel, and the supply side is still positive, but the growth of US commercial crude oil inventory and the higher-than-expected CPI data in August in the United States make the international oil market a positive and negative game. In terms of refinery supply, Yongping Refinery and Fuhai completed weekly maintenance, but Sichuan Petrochemical Refinery maintenance was put on the agenda. Capacity utilization is expected to change little next week. From the point of view of the price adjustment mechanism of refined oil, affected by the rate of change of international crude oil, the new round of price limit is expected to increase by a large margin, with positive news guidance. Approaching the double section, gasoline demand is expected to improve, but it is about to enter the middle and last ten days of the month, some refineries performance pressure increases, do not rule out the possibility of price reduction promotion. Taken together, it is expected that there is room for upward adjustment in China's gasoline market in the short term.
VI. Operating rate
This week (20230908-20230914) the utilization rate of China's main capacity was 83.12%, which was flat and stable compared with last week. On the independent refinery side, some refineries were overhauled, and the operating rate was 64.61% this week, up 1.71% from last week.
Supply and demand & profit
Supply and demand: this week, China's oil product output is 3.4051 million tons, China's main output is 2.4576 million tons, China's independent refineries output 947500 tons, China's independent refinery gasoline sales of 1.0004 million tons, China's commercial inventory of 13.098 million tons.
Profit: main comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 726.85 yuan / ton, georefining comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 753.14 yuan / ton, atmospheric and vacuum weekly production gross profit 18 yuan / ton, FCC weekly production gross profit 332 yuan / ton, delayed coking weekly production gross profit 680 yuan / ton.
VIII. Plant maintenance schedule
|
Maintenance schedule of main refineries in China |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Beihai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Catalytic cracking |
210 |
March 1, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Daqing Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
550 |
August 3, 2023 |
September 23, 2023 |
|
Daqing Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 24, 2023 |
|
Guangzhou Petrochemical Corporation |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
500 |
October 15, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Harbin Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
435 |
May 5, 2023 |
June 23, 2023 |
|
Huizhou Refining and Chemical Industry |
The first phase of the whole plant |
1200 |
March 15, 2023 |
Mid-May 2023 |
|
Jinling Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
600 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 26, 2023 |
|
Lanzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1050 |
June 11, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Liaoyang Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
900 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 24, 2023 |
|
Luoyang Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
May 15, 2023 |
July 14, 2023 |
|
Qingdao Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1200 |
May 16, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Sichuan Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
September 15, 2023 |
November 20, 2023 |
|
Tahe petrochemical |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 19, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Tianjin Petrochemical Company |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
250 |
September 5, 2023 |
October 31, 2023 |
|
Urumqi petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
850 |
April 15, 2023 |
June 18, 2023 |
|
Dongxing in Zhanjiang |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 5, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Changqing Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
April 1, 2023 |
May 25, 2023 |
|
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
1000 |
March 10, 2023 |
May 5, 2023 |
|
China National Oil and Gas Taizhou |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
May 12, 2023 |
End of June 2023 |
|
Maintenance schedule of local refinery plant |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Dalian Hengli |
Hydrogenation of wax oil and residue |
/ |
May 20, 2023 |
Early July 2023 |
|
Dalian Jinyuan |
Whole plant overhaul |
220 |
July 10, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Dongying Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
March 12, 2023 |
May 10, 2023 |
|
Fengli petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
260 |
July 20, 2023 |
August 20, 2023 |
|
Fu Haichuang |
Whole plant overhaul |
700 |
June 16, 2023 |
Early September 2023 |
|
Kenli Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 2023 |
|
Lanqiao Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
June 15, 2023 |
August 2, 2023 |
|
Lijin refining and chemical industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 1, 2023 |
October 2023 |
|
United petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
420 |
April 9, 2023 |
May 19, 2023 |
|
Liaoning Baolai |
Catalysis, hydrogenation, etc. |
/ |
January 30, 2023 |
February 23, 2023 |
|
Whole plant overhaul |
2400 |
August 1, 2023 |
September 2023 |
|
|
Liaoning Huajin |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 8, 2023 |
March 15, 2023 |
|
Ninglu Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection of the whole plant |
120 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 5, 2023 |
|
Panjin Haoye |
Fault shutdown |
650 |
January 15, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Qicheng petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
350 |
End of July 2023 |
End of September 2023 |
|
Shenchi chemical industry |
Catalytic cracking |
120 |
January 22, 2023 |
February 20, 2023 |
|
Wantong Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
July 13, 2023 |
Early September 2023 |
|
Wudi Xinyue |
Whole plant overhaul |
240 |
June 26, 2023 |
End of August 2023 |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
April 26, 2023 |
August 10, 2023 |
|
Xintai Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
220 |
End of February 2023 |
July 22, 2023 |
|
Yatong Petrochemical |
Hydrocracking |
200 |
May 27, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Yan'an Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
560 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 26, 2023 |
|
Zhonghe petrochemical |
Catalysis |
100 |
March 31, 2023 |
April 15, 2023 |
|
China and overseas |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
February 28, 2023 |
April 20, 2023 |
|
Yongping Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
460 |
September 4, 2023 |
September 20, 2023 |
