Gasoline Special issue-202308 issue

Analysis and forecast of gasoline market in January and August

Analysis of gasoline Market in January and August

As of August 31, China's gasoline price index was 9280.47, up 178.86, or 1.97%, from August 1, while China's gasoline price index was 9602.63, up 173.61, or 1.84%. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index both rose, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 322.16.

After the trend of China's gasoline market rose and fell in August 2023, the tail rose. Specifically, at the beginning of the month, after continuing the rising trend in July to reach a relatively high level (92percent), 9331.73 and 9666.39), the positive market also followed the decline, but the price rose slightly at the end of the month. Overall, in August, China's main wholesale price rose 100-280 yuan / ton, and the ex-factory price increased 100-310 yuan / ton. The main influencing factors of this month: 1, from the perspective of crude oil, the weak global economic data gradually gained the upper hand to offset the tightening of the supply side and the fall in high oil prices. The later announced decline in US commercial crude oil inventories improved to boost oil prices, but the uncertainty of raising interest rates in September restrained the rise in international oil prices. 2. From the point of view of supply, the capacity utilization of independent refineries changes relatively steadily, while the increase in capacity utilization of main refineries drives the relative surplus on the supply side in China. On the other hand, in terms of Chinese demand, Jinjiu Silver hoarding began to set off in July, and phased replenishment came to an end in mid-August. in the middle and late ten days, as the end of the summer vacation approached and the weather turned cooler, the fuel consumption support of superimposed vehicle air conditioners for returning to school in autumn weakened, and the overall performance fluctuated slightly. 3. From the export point of view, the market has begun to set off the third batch of export quotas since late July. The atmosphere of issuing the third batch of export quotas has not yet been fulfilled, and the good support of the export news has gradually been digested, but the news of the planned export volume in late August and September has fermented. In April and August, the rate of change of international crude oil narrowed but still extended, and the price limit of oil products in China was raised twice.

 

Comparison of main wholesale prices of gasoline in August (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 8.1	Price 8.31	Rise and fall	Amplitude
North China region	92#	8800-9350	8950-9710	150/360	1.70%/3.85%
	95#	9050-9700	9150-10090	100/390	1.10%/4.02%
South China	92#	9000-9250	9100-9530	100/280	1.11%/3.03%
	95#	9250-9550	9350-9830	100/280	1.08%/2.93%
Central China	92#	8950-9150	9020-9300	70/150	0.78%/1.64%
	95#	9100-9350	9200-9600	100/250	1.10%/2.67%
East China region	92#	8850-9300	9000-9600	150/300	1.69%/3.23%
	95#	9100-9650	9200-9900	100/250	1.10%/2.59%
Northwestern region	92#	8850-9890	9000-10134	150/244	1.69%/2.47%
	95#	9050-10640	9200-10910	150/270	1.66%/2.54%
Southwest China	92#	9100-9400	9150-9470	50/70	0.55%/0.74%
	95#	9320-9830	9350-9820	30/-10	0.32%/-0.10%
Northeast China	92#	8800-9700	9045-9800	245/100	2.78%/1.03%
	95#	9200-10300	9395-10400	195/100	2.12%/0.97%

2. Comparison of spot gasoline prices within the month of nbsp;

 

3. Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, on the supply side, Russia and other production reduction allies restrict crude oil exports and add Saudi Arabia's production reduction plan to October, and the tight supply side once again leads the international oil price to improve. However, the peak season for traditional fuel demand in the United States is coming to an end, and bearish sentiment remains on the global economic level. From the supply point of view, the main refinery Tianjin Petrochemical carried out atmospheric and vacuum unit overhaul in early September, Sichuan Petrochemical planned to start the whole plant overhaul in the middle of the year, Daqing Refining and Chemical Industry is expected to restart in the next ten days, and the local refinery Yongping Refinery was overhauled at the beginning of the month. Qicheng Petrochemical and Lijin Refining and Chemical end of the month overhaul. From the point of view of demand, at the end of the summer vacation, the number of tourists is less than that of summer travel; coupled with the cooling weather, the fuel consumption support of car air conditioners is weakened; the rigid demand for gasoline consumption is mainly. September is approaching the National Day October 1 holiday, there is a certain replenishment demand in the middle and lower reaches. However, the penetration of the new energy market is growing rapidly, or the holiday replenishment purchasing efforts may be restrained. In addition, the third batch of oil products export quotas issued a total of 12 million tons. Taken together, there is still room for the gasoline market to rise in September, but it may not be as good as expected.

II. Trend of gasoline production in China

1. Analysis of gasoline production in 2023

In July 2023, China's gasoline production was 14.352 million tons, an increase of 21.09 percent over the same period last year and 8.21 percent from the previous month. From January to July, China's gasoline output totaled 92.273 million tons.

 

2. Analysis of output refinery in 2023

The overall weekly output of oil products in China does not fluctuate much this month, with the output of oil products in the range of 342.99-3.4545 million tons, of which the main output is 244.36-2.505 million tons, and the output of independent refineries is increased, with an output of 94.42-1.0021 million tons.

 

III. Analysis of operating rate of refineries in China

1.   main refinery operating rate of refined oil products

 

The operating rate of the main refinery showed an upward trend in 2023, in which the operating rate only increased for four consecutive months in May, June, July and August, and increased month by month. In August, the operating rate of China's main refined oil refineries was 81.18%, an increase of 15.04% over the same period last year and 1.88% from the previous month.

2.   operating rate of independent refineries of refined oil products

 

 

In 2023, the operating rate of China's refined oil independent refineries was stable and fluctuated less than that of the main units, of which the operating rate in August was 62.78%, an increase of 7.60% over the same period last year and a decrease of 0.43% from the previous month.

IV. Analysis of gasoline import and export

1. Gasoline import

According to customs data, there is a big difference between 2023 imports and 2022 gasoline imports. There is no continuous import in April, May and June in 2023, with 8.83 tons in July and 11.63 tons from January to July.

 

2. Gasoline export

According to customs data, gasoline exports totaled 1.224 million tons in July 2023, an increase of 39.06 percent over the previous year and 28.26 percent month-on-month.

 

Singapore, the exporter, remained the top exporter in July, with exports of 885500 tons, accounting for 76 per cent of total exports in July. This was followed by Mexico's exports of 71300 tons, accounting for 6 percent, while the Philippines exported 51200 tons, Pakistan 49700 tons and Malaysia 44900 tons, each accounting for about 4 percent of the total.

 

 

 

V. Analysis of apparent gasoline consumption

 

 

The apparent gasoline consumption from January to July 2023 totaled 84.9822 million tons. Among them, the apparent gasoline consumption in July 2023 was 13.128 million tons, an increase of 19.65% over the same period last year and 6.66% month-on-month.

VI. Profit analysis

1. Analysis of gasoline retail profit.

 

Gasoline retail profits fluctuated upwards in August 2023, keeping in the range of 1202-1391 yuan / ton.

2. Profit analysis of oil products.

This month, the main comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross margin is 885.13-1028.11 yuan / ton, georefining comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit is 912.11-990.07 yuan / ton. The gross profit of atmospheric and vacuum production is 218-428 yuan / ton, FCC production is 149-359 yuan / ton, and delayed coking production is 500-737 yuan / ton.

 

VII. Analysis of gasoline inventory

 

Commercial gasoline inventories averaged 12.9242 million tons in August 2023, down 5.17% from the same period last year and up 0.30% month-on-month.

VIII. International crude Oil Futures Price and its trend

Types	WTI	Brent	Muerban	DME Oman	Shanghai crude oil
Average price of 202307	75.73	79.89	80.97	80.26	577.13
Average price of 202308	81.22	85.02	87.20	86.53	633.08
The rate of change compared with the previous month	7.24%	6.43%	7.69%	7.81%	9.69%
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. 2. This month, the WTI/ Brent spread is-3.81, and the Brent / DME Oman spread is-1.50.

 

 

IX. Price adjustment schedule of refined oil products in 2023

1.   2023 Price Adjustment Summary of Oil products

Cumulative price adjustment of refined oil products in 2023
Date	Petrol	diesel oil
January third	↑250	↑240
January seventeenth	↓205	↓195
February third	↑210	↑200
February seventeenth	The price adjustment amount is less than 50 yuan per ton and has not been adjusted.
March 3rd	The price adjustment amount is less than 50 yuan per ton and has not been adjusted.
March seventeenth	↓100	↓95
March 31st	↓335	↓320
April seventeenth	↑550	↑525
April 28th	↓160	↓155
May 16th	↓380	↓365
May 30th	↑100	↑95
June thirteenth	↓55	↓50
June twenty _ eighth	↑70	↑70
July twelfth	↑155	↑150
July twenty _ sixth	↑275	↑260
August ninth	↑240	↑230
August twenty _ third	↑55	↑55

 

2.   2023 price adjustment schedule

 

10. China equipment maintenance Plan

1. Maintenance list of main refinery equipment in 2023

 

2.   2023 local refinery equipment maintenance table