Recent current situation of China's ethanol market and factors affecting price trends in the future

Last week, a small detective in China's ethanol region, part of the market mentality is loose, downstream rigid demand procurement, enterprise quotations rose. As of press time, the price of high-grade corn in Henan in central China was 6550-6600 yuan / ton, up 50,100 yuan / ton over the same period last week. 6550-6600 yuan / ton of general-grade cassava ethanol in eastern and northern China, up 50 yuan / ton over the same period last week. Shandong 6600 yuan / ton, northeast Heilongjiang corn ethanol 6250-6350 yuan / ton, Jilin 6400-6450 yuan / ton.

The main reasons affecting the price are as follows: first, at the end of July and the beginning of August, the equipment in Mengzhou, Henan Province has decreased to half-load production, the supply has dropped sharply, and the price has dropped to a low level, the cross-regional arbitrage window has been opened, traders and downstream purchases from Henan have increased, and the number of vehicles in front of enterprises has increased. Second, there are individual rumors of production reduction in East China, the output has decreased, the amount of external production has increased and some factories have no obvious inventory, and the downstream chemical industry has concentrated procurement, and the inventory of a small number of enterprises with inventory has dropped significantly; third, large factories in Northeast China have maintenance plans, and some large factories are not in stock, and orders are delivered. Fourth, the high price of raw material corn and cassava will have a good impact on the cost.

Can ethanol prices remain high?

First of all, from the raw material end: cassava dry: Thailand's new cassava listing is expected to be on the market around late November, starting from December to January, then it means that the cassava inventory sales time will be maintained for about 3 months. it is expected that in the later period, the price of cassava in Thailand will remain high due to the continuous decline in inventory, and prices will fall after the harvest period. The impact of high cost. In August, the price of cassava fob in Thailand has risen to US $275 / tonne, but there is almost no deal in China.

Corn: affected by extreme weather, the market is worried about the decline in corn production in the later period. It is predicted that corn prices will remain high in the second half of this year. Although corn imports from Brazil, the United States, South Africa and other regions supplement, but the scope of impact is limited. At present, multi-trader inventory sales, low prices to sell, although the enterprise listing price is low, but more than this price has no purchase volume, need to increase the price purchase. From September to October, new corn went on the market in central China, relieving supply pressure and entering the main producing areas of Northeast China in November. Whether the price in 2023 is high or not, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of regional weather on corn production.

Ethanol supply in China

The north maintenance enterprises of Didong large factory basically recovered in August, and the supply in the northeast reached a high in September. Three cassava ethanol plants in East China have been turned on in August, but if cassava dry cassava continues to maintain a high trend, and under the influence of narrow price fluctuations due to poor demand for ethanol in China, the enthusiasm of enterprises in purchasing raw materials is not high. continue to maintain low production, prices fell back after the concentration of raw materials in the fourth quarter, and the procurement of raw materials increased after the improvement of ethanol demand in China, and the start-up will increase. Most of the coal-based ethanol was put into production at the end of the fourth quarter, and some small-scale production was put into production in the middle of the third quarter.

& the demand for nbsp;    liquor has dropped sharply, and it is optimistically estimated that the demand for alcohol in 2023 will be 70-800000 tons per year.

The consumption of chemical industry has gradually changed to the main consumption of ethanol, and the downstream chemical ethyl acetate has a new production capacity planned to be put into production, which is expected to be 200000 tons / year. As well as the expectation of the market for the recovery of real estate in the later stage, the increase of paint consumption will drive the consumption of ethyl acetate, thus affecting the enthusiasm of ethyl acetate factory. The production capacity of methyl ethyl carbonate is expected to be 700000 tons in the second half of the year, and it remains to be seen whether the new production capacity is expected to be as scheduled. The start-up of methyl ethyl carbonate from July to August is in a relatively low position, but the policy affects the sales of electric vehicles in the later period and drives the consumption of batteries. The consumption of ethanol in the peak season of gold, silver and decamethyl ethyl ester will be driven. Other chemical gold, silver and silver will also be increased.