Caustic soda weekly: During the week, there were differences in supply and demand in various regions, downstream demand was flat, and prices were flexibly adjusted

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June 15, 2023, 2:26 PM

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)
Specifications	Market	June eighth	June fifteenth	Rise and fall	Remarks
32% ionic membrane alkali	Northeast China	1200-1270	1200-1270	0/0	Ex-factory price
	Northwest	735-755	765-785	30/30	Ex-factory price
	North China	770-950	760-950	-10/0	-
	Hebei	800-950	770-930	-30/-20	Ex-factory price
	South China	870-1000	870-1000	0/0	Can price
	Shandong	770-920	750-870	-20/-50	Current exchange rate
	Zhejiang	960-1000	960-1000	0/0	-
	Jiangsu Province	850-920	780-900	-70/-20	Delivery price
	Tianjin	2720-2800	2670-2700	-50/-100	A discount of 100%
	Anhui Province	860-950	860-950	0/0	Ex-factory price
	Henan	2950-3000	2950-3000	0/0	A discount of 100%
50% ionic membrane alkali	North China	1220-1900	1210-1900	-10/0	Ex-factory price
	Hebei	1260-1900	1260-1900	0/0	Ex-factory price
	Shandong	1200-1260	1210-1280	10/20	Current exchange rate
	Tianjin	2720-2800	2670-2800	-50/0	A discount of 100%
	Southwest	3600-3900	3400-3700	-200/-200	A discount of 100%
99% tablet alkali	Northwest	2800-3250	2800-3100	0/-150	Ex-factory price
99% tablet alkali	Shandong	3150-3400	3150-3400	0/0	Ex-factory price
45% ionic membrane alkali	Northeast China	1680-1750	1680-1750	0/0	Ex-factory price
49% ionic membrane alkali	Jiangsu Province	1310-1450	1230-1350	-80/-100	Ex-factory price
30% ionic membrane alkali	Southwest	1050-1140	1020-1100	-30/-40	-
48% ionic membrane alkali	Henan	3200-3250	3200-3250	0/0	A discount of 100%

Caustic soda spot analysis: caustic soda market as a whole maintained a downward trend this week, prices in some areas rose slightly, the overall trading atmosphere of the market was poor, the performance of downstream demand was general, and it was difficult to change the market weakness in most areas. Specifically:

Liquid alkali market: this week, prices in most areas of the liquid alkali market continued to fall mainly, prices in some areas rose slightly, local operators had a strong wait-and-see mood, and price adjustments were more cautious. From the perspective of price adjustment in various regional markets, 32% of ionic membrane bases have individually increased by 30 yuan / ton, most of them have dropped by 10-100 yuan / ton, 50% of ion-exchange membrane bases have been down-regulated by 10-200 yuan / ton, individually by 10-20 yuan / ton, 30% by 30-40 yuan / ton, 49% by 80-100 yuan / ton, and the prices of other concentrations of bases have been temporarily stable. During the period of last Friday, the fluctuation of the regional price range was not obvious, and the market supply and demand was basically stable; this week, the regional market flexibly adjusted the price, and the chlor-alkali plant in some areas was still under maintenance, which played a supporting role in the local liquid alkali price. the price is mainly increased; the start-up of local enterprises has slightly improved, and the local liquid-alkali supply has increased, but the downstream demand is light, and the enterprise shipment is poor, so the price is mainly reduced. During the week, an alumina factory in the lower reaches of Shandong continued to reduce the purchase price of liquid alkali, and most of the market prices were lowered, and prices fell mainly in some surrounding areas; the performance of downstream demand in most areas was weak, and the actual procurement situation was not good; the market transaction situation was poor, and the enterprise shipment situation was not ideal, so the price was mainly reduced. The price increase of individual high concentration alkali was mainly boosted by an increase in orders. The market fundamentals in some areas are relatively stable, there are no other factors that affect the market trend, and the market transaction price range has not changed significantly. Some of the upstream production enterprises adjust the ex-factory quotation, and there are some differences in quotation mentality, and most manufacturers wait and see to stabilize the price.

Tablet alkali market: This week, the operation of the tablet alkali market is weak, the enthusiasm of receiving goods downstream is poor, the shipping situation of traders in the market is not ideal, the market transaction atmosphere is weak, and the center of gravity of transaction prices in some areas has shifted downwards. This week, most manufacturers in Northwest China announced a reduction in the new unit price. After the new order price was lowered, it has a certain drag on the mentality of market operators in most areas, and the actual transaction price range in the market is lower than that quoted by manufacturers. The market trend in some areas has not fluctuated obviously, the market transaction is more flexible, and the price adjustment is more cautious.

China caustic soda index: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda spot index was 2511.77 on June 15, down 46.72%, or 1.83%, from the beginning of the week.

Device changes during the week:

Start-up of caustic soda plant in China
Enterprise name	Device dynamics
Yibin Tianyuan	The plant will have a half-load rotation from May 25 and resume on June 10.
Hubei Jianghan Oilfield	The plant will be off from May 29 and will resume on June 10.
Lutai chemistry	The device was stopped for maintenance on June 2 and resumed on June 7.
Shanxi Jintai	The device will be overhauled from June 5 and is scheduled for about 10 days.
Xinjiang Zhongtai (Fukang factory area)	The device will be stopped for maintenance from June 6 and will be off for about 10 days.
Ordos	The device will be stopped and overhauled from June 6, with a plan of about 15 days.
Jiangsu is rich and strong	The device will be stopped and overhauled from June 7, with a plan of about 20 days.
Xinpu chemistry	The device will be stopped for maintenance from June 10 and will be off for about 45 days.
Inner Mongolia Yihua	The device will be stopped and overhauled from June 15, with a plan of about 10 days.
Shanghai chlor-alkali	The device will be stopped and overhauled from June 15, which will take about one month.
Heilongjiang Haohua	The device will be stopped and overhauled from June 25, and it will be scheduled for about a week.
Dezhou Shihua	The device will be stopped and overhauled from June 27, with a plan of about 5 days.

Change in operating rate during the week: the operating rate of caustic soda plant in China is about 81.1%.

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda: Recently, the overall operation of the caustic soda market is weak, and prices in various regions have declined to varying degrees. This week, the devices with maintenance plans have been overhauled as planned. However, today, about 980000 tons of production capacity devices have entered the maintenance period, and some individual devices still have maintenance plans in late June, but they involve less production capacity and may have limited support to the local market. The regional benefits brought by the supply side to the market may not be as strong as expected in the later stage. It is expected that the overall supply will be more abundant next week. Downstream alumina enterprises start relatively stable, mainly maintain rigid demand for raw material procurement, but the profit situation of alumina industry is poor, losses have expanded, do not rule out the later price reduction behavior of caustic soda enterprises; the demand of other industries downstream is weak and stable, lack of market support, the possibility of short-term domestic demand or improvement is relatively small, rigid demand procurement still has support for the market. In the short term, the basic face of the market support is not obvious, it is expected that the short-term caustic soda market may maintain a weak operation.

Upstream raw salt analysis: raw salt market as a whole maintained weak and stable operation this week, the market fluctuation in most areas was small, the market situation in some areas declined slightly, and the transaction price fell mainly. The sea salt market continues to show a regional downward trend, the market operation in some regions is relatively sluggish, prices fall mainly, and local operators wait and see. The market of well and mineral salt is weak and stable, the market transaction is general, the downstream maintains rigid demand procurement, the regional market is mainly wait-and-see, and the price adjustment is more cautious. The trend of the lake salt market is relatively stable, and the supply and demand side of the market is relatively stable. Most operators maintain a wait-and-see mentality and give priority to price stability.

Downstream alumina price:

Alumina price this week (unit: yuan / ton)
Area	Specifications	June seventh	June fourteenth	Rise and fall	Amplitude
Shandong	A0-1	2920	2905	-15	-0.51%
Henan	A0-1	2825	2810	-15	-0.53%
Shanxi Province	A0-1	2825	2810	-15	-0.53%
Guangxi	A0-1	2780	2780	0	0.00%
Guizhou	A0-1	2835	2825	-10	-0.35%
Southwest	A0-1	3170	3155	-15	-0.47%
Inner Mongolia	A0-1	2890	2870	-20	-0.69%

Liquid chlorine market analysis: liquid chlorine market showed an overall downward trend this week, the market transaction atmosphere is not good, compared with the same period last week, regional prices fell by 100-200 yuan / ton. First of all, the device overhaul brought some favorable support to individual regions last Friday, and prices in individual regions increased, but this week, device overhaul did not give much support to the market. Although there is still device maintenance, the overall performance of downstream demand is weak, the market trading atmosphere is weak, enterprise shipments are not ideal, the rise of market prices is blocked, prices in some areas fall mainly, there are still local quotations are relatively strong, price adjustment mentality is more cautious.

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)
Area	June eighth	June fifteenth	Rise and fall	Remarks
Northeast China	400-500	400-500	0/0	Tank car quotation
Shandong province	-400-（-150）	-500-（-300）	-100/-150	Tank car quotation
Zhejiang Province	500-600	500-600	0/0	Tank car quotation
East China region	-300-（-200）	-300-（-200）	0/0	Tank car quotation
Southwest China	1000-1300	1000-1300	0/0	Tank car quotation
Central China	-300-（-100）	-500-（-200）	-200/-100	Tank car quotation
Inner Mongolia	1-100	1-100	0/0	Tank car quotation
Anhui province	-250-（-100）	-250-（-100）	0/0	Tank car quotation
Hebei Province	-300-（-200）	-450-（-300）	-150/-100	Tank car quotation

Liquid chlorine index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 83.44 on June 15, down 22.22 from the beginning of the week, by 21.03%. China's liquid chlorine index fell this week.