Ethylene glycol: Insufficient positive support, market prices continue to be weak

On May 30, the ethylene glycol market price index was 4,021.91, down 7.38 from yesterday.

Market focus:

1. Although the two parties in the United States reached an agreement on debt ceiling negotiations to avoid default risks, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in June still exists, and international oil prices have risen slightly. NYMEX crude oil futures were closed for one day due to Memorial Day in the United States and had no settlement price;ICE oil futures 07 contract rose 0.12 US dollars/barrel or 0.16%.

2. Shaanxi Weihe Binzhou Chemical's 300,000-ton synthesis gas-based MEG unit was stopped for maintenance on May 15 to replace the catalyst. At present, the unit has been repaired and restarted, and the load is basically normal.

3. Zhejiang Petrochemical No. 3 plant was stopped first, and the recovery time was to be determined.

 

Futures dynamics:

On May 30, 2023, the opening price of the EG main contract 2309 of DSE: 4051, the highest price: 4089, the lowest price: 4040, the settlement price: 4062, the closing price: 4051, down 19, and the open position:473473.

 

Spot market: Today, the price of ethylene glycol market continued to be weak. Futures fluctuated at a low level. Chinese quotations fell back. Demand in the downstream market was average, and it was difficult to have significant volume on the market. In the morning, the focus of MEG's internal trading was narrow, and the market discussions were general. At present, the spot basis is around 75-80 yuan/ton for the 2009 contract premium, 3,985 - 3,990 yuan/ton for negotiations, and some transactions are 3,995 - 4,000 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, MEG's internal market focus was weak, and the market was generally buying. At present, the spot basis is around 75 yuan/ton for the 2009 contract premium. Negotiations are 3,985 - 3,990 yuan/ton, and some transactions are 3970 yuan/ton. As of press time, the price in South China is around 4200 yuan/ton, maintaining yesterday; the price in East China is around 3986 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from yesterday.

List of external market prices:

 

 

Mainstream market price list:

 

Company Price List:

Unit: yuan/ton

 

Market outlook forecast:

Although the two parties in the United States reached an agreement on debt ceiling negotiations to avoid default risks, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in June still exists, international oil prices have risen slightly, and there is still some support for costs. Currently: With the fall of polyester raw materials, the pressure on the overall production costs of polyester companies has eased, while the overall decline in the polyester market has been small. The profits of some companies have gradually recovered upwards. However, terminal weaving demand will enter the off-season of demand, and the overall recovery of demand will be limited. In addition, with the restart of early maintenance equipment, there is an expectation of an increase in market supply. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market still exists. It is expected that the market price of ethylene glycol will be weak and volatile in the short term. In the later period, it is necessary to pay close attention to the prices of crude oil and coal and the operation of on-site equipment.