Gasoline (20230519): It is difficult to find good support, and there is insufficient room for growth in the gasoline market

Gasoline: it is difficult to find good support, and there is not enough room for gasoline market to rise.

 

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20230518	America	WTI	71.86	-0.97
20230518	The United Kingdom	Brent	75.86	-1.1

 

Gasoline price index

On May 19th, China's gasoline price index rose 9.32, or 0.11%, to 8707.87, while China's gasoline price index rose 8.48, or 0.09%, to 9000.01. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index both rose, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 292.14.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the wholesale prices of gasoline in China have been raised by a narrow range, including increases in gasoline prices in South China, Central China and Southwest China, ranging from 30 to 50 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices in East China and Northwest China remained stable for the time being. The ex-factory prices of geo-refinery are mixed, among which the high-end prices of gasoline in Shandong and North China have been reduced by 30-50 yuan per ton. the increases in the low-end prices of gasoline in Central China and North China are concentrated in 20-30 yuan per ton. The prices of gasoline in East China, Northwest China and Northeast China are stable. At present, the turnover of China's gasoline market is moderate, the procurement frequency of terminal operators maintains the previous level, and rigid demand is the main procurement. The situation of refinery shipments is general, and the quotations are adjusted flexibly according to their own conditions. On the whole, it is difficult to find good support, and the gasoline market is weak.

 

May 19 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 5.18	Price 5.19	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8560-8900	8560-8900	0/0
	95#	8760-9100	8760-9100	0/0
South China	92#	8700-9100	8750-9100	50/0
	95#	8900-9400	8950-9400	50/0
Central China	92#	8600-9000	8600-9050	0/50
	95#	8750-9200	8750-9250	0/50
East China region	92#	8500-9000	8500-9000	0/0
	95#	8700-9100	8700-9100	0/0
Northwestern region	92#	8500-9470	8500-9470	0/0
	95#	8700-10030	8700-10030	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8800-9120	8800-9150	0/30
	95#	9000-9570	9000-9600	0/30
Northeast China	92#	8480-8700	8480-8700	-20/0
	95#	8800-9150	8800-9150	0/0

 

The ex-factory price of gasoline refinery on May 19 (RMB / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 5.18	Price 5.19	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8100-8450	8100-8400	0/-50
	95#	8200-8650	8200-8600	0/-50
North China region	92#	8250-8300	8270-8270	20/-30
	95#	8350-8400	8370-8370	20/-30
Central China	92#	8510-8510	8540-8540	30/30
	95#	8710-8710	8740-8740	30/30
East China region	92#	8230-8350	8230-8350	0/0
	95#	8380-8500	8380-8500	0/0
Northwestern region	92#	8100-8400	8100-8400	0/0
	95#	8200-8600	8200-8600	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8550-8550	8550-8550	0/0
	95#	8750-8750	8750-8750	0/0

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, the US dollar is stronger, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates in June, international crude oil prices fall, and the international crude oil face is bearish support. Coupled with the recent volatile operation of international crude oil prices, the new round of retail price adjustment is expected to run aground, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the macro policy guidance is limited. From the supply side, the May production data is good, the refinery start-up load is OK, and China's gasoline spot resources are stable. The overall performance of the demand side is average, there is no obvious advantage, and the rising space of the gasoline market is insufficient. Taken together, it is expected that there will still be upward pressure on prices in China's gasoline market in the short term.

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on May 16, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China (the same below) will be reduced by RMB380,365 per ton respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The date of the price adjustment will be 24:00 on May 16, 2023, the third working day in China since the price adjustment was announced by the National Development and Reform Commission.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	9275	8255
Tianjin	9240	8220
Hebei Province	9240	8220
Shanxi province	9310	8275
Liaoning province	9240	8220
Jilin Province	9240	8220
Heilongjiang province	9240	8220
Shanghai	9255	8225
Jiangsu Province	9295	8260
Zhejiang Province	9295	8275
Anhui province	9290	8270
Fujian Province	9315	8285
Jiangxi province	9295	8280
Shandong province	9250	8230
Hubei province	9265	8245
Hunan Province	9305	8305
Henan province	9260	8240
Hainan province	9385	8355
Chongqing	9455	8430
Guangdong province	9320	8290
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	9385	8355
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	9245	8220
Gansu province	9225	8240
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	9020	8115
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	9255	8235
Chengdu city	9460	8455
Guiyang city	9420	8380
Kunming City	9450	8410
Xi'an city	9225	8230
Xining City	9205	8265

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 8510 yuan and 7490 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.