Ethanol: China's ethanol market dynamics
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May 19, 2023, 4:53 PM The price index of general-grade ethanol was 6127.50 on May 19th, which was stable compared with the previous working day.
China's ethanol market is stable and the transaction expression is light. Hot spots on May 19: first, prices in Henan are stable, and large factories continue to shut down. Second, the quotations of enterprises in East China are stable. Third, the price in Northeast China is stable. Fourth, the bidding price of ethyl acetate is stable.
Specifically, the northeast enterprise quotation is stable, order delivery. The installation of the Mengzhou factory in Henan area is not open, and the price is stable. East China quotation is stable, order delivery, chemical sporadic procurement. Jilin market price of 6250-6450 yuan / ton. The general grade of Heilongjiang market is 6050-6200 yuan / ton, and the waterless market is 6900-7000 yuan / ton. The superior enterprises in Central China offer 6550-6600 yuan / ton, and the price of no water is 7400 yuan / ton. The price of ethanol in East China is 6400-6500 yuan / ton. The price of anhydrous ethanol is 7300-7400 yuan / ton, and the general price in southern Jiangsu is 6600-6750 yuan / ton. Cassava ethanol 6700-6800 yuan / ton in Guangxi, South China.
unit: yuan / ton
|
Area |
Specifications |
Market |
2023/5/19 |
2023/5/18 |
Rise and fall |
|
|
South China |
Cassava is anhydrous |
Guangxi |
7450-7500 |
7450-7500 |
0/0 |
|
|
Molasses 95% |
Guangxi |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
Cassava 95% |
Guangxi |
6700-6800 |
6700-6800 |
0/0 |
|
|
|
North China |
Superior grade |
Hebei |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
No water |
Hebei |
7300-7400 |
7300-7400 |
0/0 |
|
|
|
Northeast China |
General level |
Jilin |
6250-6450 |
6250-6450 |
0/0 |
|
|
No water |
Jilin |
7050-7200 |
7050-7200 |
0/0 |
|
|
|
General level |
Jinzhou |
6400-6500 |
6400-6500 |
0/0 |
|
|
|
General level |
Heilongjiang Province |
6050-6200 |
6050-6200 |
0/0 |
|
|
|
East China |
General level |
Anhui Province |
6450-6550 |
6450-6550 |
0/0 |
|
|
No water |
Anhui Province |
7400-7450 |
7400-7450 |
0/0 |
|
|
|
No water |
Shandong |
|
|
0/0 |
|
|
|
General level |
Shandong |
6500-6550 |
6500-6550 |
0/0 |
|
|
|
Superior grade |
Shandong |
6700-6900 |
6700-6900 |
0/0 |
|
|
|
Send it to other places without water. |
Shandong |
7500-7500 |
7500-7500 |
0/0 |
|
|
|
General level |
Northern Jiangsu |
6400-6500 |
6400-6500 |
0/0 |
|
|
|
No water |
Northern Jiangsu |
7300-7400 |
7300-7400 |
0/0 |
|
|
|
General level |
Southern Jiangsu |
6600-6750 |
6600-6750 |
0/0 |
|
|
|
Central China |
Superior grade |
Henan |
6550-6600 |
6550-6600 |
0/0 |
|
|
No water |
Henan |
7400-7400 |
7400-7400 |
0/0 |
|
Raw materials / by-products and downstream
Unit: yuan / ton, US dollar / ton
|
Area |
Market |
Raw materials / by-products |
2023/5/19 |
Remarks |
|
Northeast China |
Jilin |
Corn |
2580-2630 |
|
|
Northeast China |
Jilin |
DDGS |
2650-2720 |
|
|
Northeast China |
Heilongjiang Province |
Corn |
2400-2510 |
|
|
Northeast China |
Heilongjiang Province |
DDGS |
2550-2650 |
|
|
Central China |
Henan |
Corn |
2790-2820 |
|
|
Central China |
Henan |
DDGS |
2790-2840 |
|
|
Thailand |
|
Dried cassava |
260-265 |
|
|
Shandong |
|
Ethyl acetate |
6250-6280 |
Acceptance leaves the factory |
|
Jiangsu Province |
|
Ethyl acetate |
6400-6420 |
|
|
South China |
|
Ethyl acetate |
6500-6550 |
|
Future forecast: plan short-term price zone arrangement. Henan starts to increase short-term price stabilization, with large factories returning to normal production and supply increase, prices may be weak, ddgs demand is limited and parallel product prices are not high, subsidized ethanol production costs are limited, and it is expected that ethanol downside space is limited. The number of shutdown enterprises in East China has increased, and the shipping mentality of small factories is positive, but the price has been much lower than the cost line, and the downward space for enterprises is limited. The northeast still has a small profit in calculating the cost according to the current corn price, but the enterprise buys more high-end corn production loss in the early stage, and there is not much space based on the high cost price. Fuel ethanol shipments of coal-based ethanol are expected to increase next week, the impact of fermented ethanol market is expected to be weak in the short term.
Raw materials: corn ethanol: corn prices rebounded slightly in the region, demand is weak, the market time of new wheat in central China is approaching, prices are weak, substitute prices are weak and bad corn prices. Cassava dry aspect: cassava dried Thai baht value-added, China's ethanol prices are weak, the buying atmosphere is not strong, prices are weak.
Supply: northeast start: Dongning downtime, Baoquanling production, Fuyu Huihai normal, Cofco Zhaodong plant production, Hongzhan normal, Fukang first line shutdown, Tianyu normal, Shuntong downtime, Dongfeng Huafeng downtime, Xintianlong production, Liuniu shutdown, Shenglong downtime. Huadong Huatian production, Guannan shutdown, Jin Changlin downtime, Guohua shutdown, Changxing downtime, Longhe production, sul production, Fulaichun continued downtime, Maibo Huihui shutdown, HIH production. Houyuan shutdown in Mengzhou, Henan Province, other ethanol plants are normal. Yushen can produce products.
Demand: downstream chemical rigid demand procurement. Buy a small amount of liquor.
Logistics: logistics prices are narrowly weak.
Equipment maintenance table of Chinese ethanol enterprises
|
Enterprise name |
Production capacity (10,000 tons / year) |
Maintenance involves production capacity |
Maintenance start time |
Remarks |
|
Heilongjiang Hongzhan (Jixian) |
60 |
60 |
April fifteenth |
Start up on May 6th |
|
Jilin Fukang |
50 |
4 |
March 28th |
|
|
Heilongjiang Hexing grain and oil |
3 |
3 |
Late March |
|
|
Inner Mongolia Shuntong |
12 |
12 |
Stop the machine |
|
|
Heilongjiang Zhongke Green |
10 |
10 |
Stop the machine |
|
|
Fulaichun, Shandong Province |
20 |
20 |
Stop the machine |
|
|
Jiangsu Dongcheng |
15 |
15 |
Stop the machine |
|
|
Guannan COVID-19, Lianyungang |
5 |
5 |
Stop the machine |
|
|
Jiangsu Haiyan |
15 |
15 |
Start up in the middle of May |
|
|
Jiangsu Maibo remittance |
8 |
8 |
Stop feeding at the beginning of April |
|
|
Shuyang Guohua |
5 |
5 |
Stop the machine |
|
|
Anhui COFCO |
75 |
30 |
Production |
The material has been put in on April 20th. |
|
Anhui Wuhechun |
8 |
8 |
Stop the machine |
|
|
Jilin Xintianlong |
30 |
30 |
Shut down on May 5th and start on May 17th |
|
|
Heilongjiang Sheng long |
15 |
15 |
Shut down on April 27th |
|
|
Inner Mongolia Liniu |
10 |
10 |
Stop the machine |
|
|
Hanyong, Mengzhou, Henan Province |
30 |
30 |
One-line production |
|
|
Houyuan, Mengzhou, Henan Province |
50 |
50 |
Stop the machine |
|
|
Jilin Dongfeng Hua Grain |
10 |
10 |
Stop feeding on April 17th |
|
|
National Investment Helen |
30 |
30 |
April 12th |
Fuel fuel |
|
Guotou Jidong |
30 |
30 |
April 3rd |
Fuel fuel |
|
Liaoyuan giant peak |
50 |
50 |
There is expected to be a boot plan in May. |
|
|
Zhenjiang Changxing |
10 |
10 |
All machines were shut down on May 16th. |
|
|
Jin Changlin in Lianyungang |
5 |
5 |
Shutdown on May 18th |
|
