The soda ash market is weak and difficult to change. The market is pessimistic (5.18 Weekly Review of soda ash)

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May 19, 2023, 3:57 PM

1. Analysis of China's soda ash market

This week, the market price of soda ash in China fell sharply. This week, the decline in heavy soda was higher than the decline in light soda, and the price difference between light and heavy soda narrowed. As of now, the price of light soda ash in North China is 2300 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2300 yuan/ton; The price of light soda ash in East China is 2250 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2250 yuan/ton; Affected by market demand, the shipping pressure of soda ash companies has increased. Equipment starts at Jiangsu Shilian, Xuzhou Fengcheng and Chongqing Xiangyu companies have declined, and the market supply has decreased slightly. Recently, soda ash market prices have continued to fall, and the purchasing sentiment in the downstream market has been more cautious, and more companies have maintained Just need to purchase, and the game mood on the supply and demand side of the market is obvious.

Forecast for next week: Xuzhou Fengcheng equipment will be restored, and Tongbai Haijing will have maintenance plans in the later period. Currently, there are not many maintenance companies in the market, and the operating rate of the soda ash industry remains high; some manufacturers 'inventories have increased, market prices have continued to fall, and actual transaction prices have increased. It is expected that the soda ash market will continue to operate in a weak manner in the short term.

2. Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions

Unit: yuan/ton

areas	specifications	May 11	May 18	rise and fall	previous month
Northeast China	light soda ash	2600	2400	-200	-7.69%
Northeast China	heavy sodium carbonate	2750	2500	-250	-9.09%
in North China	light soda ash	2500	2300	-200	-8.00%
in North China	heavy sodium carbonate	2700	2300	-400	-14.81%
East China	light soda ash	2450	2250	-200	-8.16%
East China	heavy sodium carbonate	2600	2250	-350	-13.46%
central China	light soda ash	2250	2100	-150	-6.67%
central China	heavy sodium carbonate	2650	2250	-400	-15.09%
South China	light soda ash	2450	2300	-150	-6.12%
South China	heavy sodium carbonate	2700	2450	-250	-9.26%
southwestern region	light soda ash	2350	2250	-100	-4.26%
southwestern region	heavy sodium carbonate	2700	2350	-350	-12.96%
northwestern region	light soda ash	2150	2000	-150	-6.98%
northwestern region	heavy sodium carbonate	2250	1950	-300	-13.33%

3. Soda ash process profit statement

As of May 18 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 950 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 820 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan/ton from the previous week.

production process	May 11	May 18	Weekly ups and downs	rise and fall
combined alkali method	1280	950	-330	-25.78%
ammonia-soda process	913	820	-93	-10.19%

4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises

This week, the soda ash industry started at 85.0%, down 5% from last week. Among them, ammonia and alkali factories start an average of 94%, joint alkali factories start an average of 76.8%, and natural alkali factories start an average of 100%. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 582,000 tons.

List of equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises on May 18, 2023
process	enterprise name	production capacity	device condition
combined alkali method	Fujian Yaolong	40	Maintenance will start from September 11, 2022, and recovery time will be determined
	Xuzhou Fengcheng	60	It will be stopped for maintenance on May 6 and is expected to resume at the end of the month
	Xiangyu Yanhua	80	It was stopped for maintenance on May 9, and the device is being restored this week
	Jiangsu Shilian	100	It will be stopped for maintenance on May 10, and the maintenance is expected to take about 20 days
	Gansu Jinchang	20	At present, the company's equipment is under construction
chlor-alkali process	Shandong haihua	300	At present, the company's equipment is under construction

5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory

The total inventory of Chinese soda ash manufacturers this week was 538,000 tons, compared with 515,000 tons last week, an increase of 23,000 tons month-on-month, or 4.47%.