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[Natural Rubber]: Rubber Daily Journal (May 16)

112,496
May 16, 2023, 4:32 PM

index

On May 16, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was US$1375/ton, which was stable from the previous trading day.

market analysis

Futures market: On May 16, the opening price of RU2309 contract: 12285 yuan/ton, the highest price: 12385 yuan/ton, the lowest price: 12185 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12200 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; The opening price of NR2307 contract: 9575 yuan/ton, the highest price: 9600 yuan/ton, the lowest price: 9525 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 9550 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

spot market

Supply:

Foreign countries: Thailand's production areas are basically in the early stages of cutting and have not been fully increased.

China: The rainfall and weather in China's production areas have improved recently. The opening of Yunnan production areas is around 2- 3%, and the opening of Hainan production areas is better than that of Yunnan.

price type

on May 15

May 16

rise and fall

units

raw material prices

Thailand

glue

43.1

43.1

0

baht/kg

cup glue

39.85

39.75

-0.1

baht/kg

Yunnan

Glue (into the dry glue factory)

10000

10200

200

Yuan/ton

rubber block

10100

10300

200

Yuan/ton

Hainan

Glue (into the dry glue factory)

10900

11300

400

Yuan/ton

Glue (Jinnong Dairy Factory)

11400

11600

200

Yuan/ton

 

On the demand side: There is still a gap in domestic sales orders for tire companies. Coupled with the support of foreign trade orders, most companies are more motivated to start construction. In addition, the overall shipment performance of the company in the first half of the month was average. With the tire exhibition held and the company's policies followed up, downstream shipments may improve, and the company is actively starting work to ensure normal supply of products.

Futures spot price list

price type

on May 15

May 16

rise and fall

units

price of finished products

Shandong

China All Latex

11900

11950

50

Yuan/ton

Qingdao

Thailand No. 20 standard glue

1375

1375

0

us dollars/ton

Qingdao

Thailand No. 20 mixed glue

10700

10650

-50

Yuan/ton

Ningbo

Hainan

8400

8400

0

Yuan/ton

Ningbo

Thailand Non-Yellow Bulk

9100

9100

0

Yuan/ton

futures prices

SHFE

RU main contract closing price

12305

12200

-105

Yuan/ton

INE

NR main contract closing price

9565

9550

-15

Yuan/ton

the current price difference

Main force-Thailand No. 20 mixed glue

1605

1550

-55

Yuan/ton

Main force-China All Latex

405

250

-155

Yuan/ton

relevant exchange rate

us dollar against the RMB

6.9814

6.9764

-0.005

Yuan

Thai Baht to RMB

0.2132

0.2126

-0.0006

Yuan

market outlook

The raw material glue in China's foreign producing areas has not yet fully entered the stage of increasing quantity, and there is still support on the cost side. The start of tire on the demand side has rebounded. However, the terminal demand is close to the seasonal off-season in the Chinese market. There is accumulated pressure on the finished product inventory of tire factories, and natural rubber social inventories Still maintain a trend of accumulation. In the later period, China's arrival in Hong Kong may be caused by the seasonal low production period. However, the actual demand situation is weak, dragging rubber prices out of motivation and maintaining a volatile trend in the short term.