Gasoline: the downward adjustment window is about to be cashed, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood.

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20230515	America	WTI	71.11	1.07
20230515	The United Kingdom	Brent	75.23	1.06

 

Gasoline price index

On May 16, China's gasoline price index fell 3.94, or 0.05%, to 8754.36, while China's gasoline price index fell 13.29, or 0.15%, to 9044.18. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 289.82.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the main wholesale price of gasoline in China has been sorted out in the price range in most areas, but the low-end prices of gasoline in Northeast China have declined, with a range of 50-150 yuan per ton. The ex-factory price of gasoline refinery has been raised in most areas and lowered in some areas. Among them, the gasoline prices of Shandong, North China, Central China, East China and Northwest China have increased by 30-70 yuan per ton, while those in Northeast China have been reduced by 100 yuan per ton. At present, the transaction in China's gasoline market is OK, there is phased replenishment behavior downstream, multi-rigid demand procurement. Refined oil downgrade window is about to open, the main refinery raised the price cautiously, but the georefining aspect by some products tax, quotation slightly upside. On the whole, the market is more quiet and other downgrades are realized, and the wait-and-see mood is strong.

 

May 16 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 5.15	Price 5.16	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8580-9000	8580-9000	0/0
	95#	8800-9300	8800-9300	0/0
South China	92#	8700-9100	8700-9100	0/0
	95#	8900-9400	8900-9400	0/0
Central China	92#	8600-9000	8600-9000	0/0
	95#	8750-9200	8750-9200	0/0
East China region	92#	8500-9000	8500-9000	0/0
	95#	8700-9100	8700-9100	0/0
Northwestern region	92#	8500-9650	8500-9650	0/0
	95#	8700-10450	8700-10450	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8700-9120	8700-9120	0/0
	95#	8900-9350	8900-9350	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8550-8950	8500-8950	-50/0
	95#	8950-9400	8800-9400	-150/0

 

The ex-factory price of gasoline refining on May 16 (RMB / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 5.15	Price 5.16	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8090-8440	8160-8500	70/60
	95#	8190-8600	8260-8660	70/60
North China region	92#	8210-8240	8270-8300	60/60
	95#	8310-8340	8370-8400	60/60
Central China	92#	8450-8450	8480-8480	30/30
	95#	8650-8650	8680-8680	30/30
East China region	92#	8190-8250	8230-8300	40/50
	95#	8340-8400	8380-8450	40/50
Northwestern region	92#	8050-8400	8100-8400	50/0
	95#	8200-8600	8200-8600	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8650-8650	8550-8550	-100/0
	95#	8850-8850	8750-8750	-100/0

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, the United States buys back the strategic oil reserve, coupled with a sharp decline in Saudi crude oil exports, the national crude oil supply is expected to tighten up, the international crude oil price has stopped falling and rising, and the international crude oil news is favorable. From the supply side, at present, the operating rate of China's main and local refineries is stable, and the gasoline spot resources are relatively abundant, supporting the normal operation of China's gasoline market. However, from the point of view of demand, the demand side remains relatively stable, the support for the gasoline market is limited, and the mentality of operators is cautious. While eliminating inventory, there is only rigid demand replenishment, which lowers market activity, and the buying and selling atmosphere is still weak. Taken together, it is expected that there are still downside risks in China's gasoline market prices in the short term.

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on April 28, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China have been reduced by RMB160,155 per ton respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The date of the price adjustment will be 24:00 on April 28th, 2023, the 10th working day in China since the price adjustment was announced by the National Development and Reform Commission.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	9655	8620
Tianjin	9620	8585
Hebei Province	9620	8585
Shanxi province	9690	8640
Liaoning province	9620	8585
Jilin Province	9620	8585
Heilongjiang province	9620	8585
Shanghai	9635	8590
Jiangsu Province	9675	8625
Zhejiang Province	9675	8640
Anhui province	9670	8635
Fujian Province	9695	8650
Jiangxi province	9675	8645
Shandong province	9630	8595
Hubei province	9645	8610
Hunan Province	9685	8670
Henan province	9640	8605
Hainan province	9765	8720
Chongqing	9835	8795
Guangdong province	9700	8655
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	9765	8720
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	9625	8585
Gansu province	9605	8605
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	9400	8480
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	9635	8600
Chengdu city	9840	8820
Guiyang city	9800	8745
Kunming City	9830	8775
Xi'an city	9605	8595
Xining City	9585	8630

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 8890 yuan and 7855 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.