[Carbon Black Industry Network] News on November 9, the Federal Reserve Board announced an important decision on November 7, lowering the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, and setting the new interest rate range at 4.5% to 4.75%. This is the second time the Federal Reserve has implemented interest rate cuts in the past two months, marking a further adjustment of its monetary policy in the direction of easing.
In September this year, the Federal Reserve lowered the target range of the federal funds rate by 50 basis points for the first time to between 4.75% and 5%, thus kicking off this round of interest rate cuts cycle. Although the rate cut this time is narrower than the first time, it still meets the market's previous general expectations, showing that the U.S. economy has entered a relatively stable stage and has officially entered the channel of interest rate cuts.
According to the Carbon Black Industry Network, the Federal Reserve pointed out in its interest rate cut statement that recent economic indicators show that economic activity continues to grow steadily. Although the labor market has relaxed and the unemployment rate has increased slightly, the overall level remains at a low level. At the same time, inflation is on track to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, although it is still slightly above the ideal level. The Federal Reserve emphasized that the current risks to achieving employment and inflation targets are basically balanced, but there are still uncertainties in the economic outlook. Therefore, it will pay close attention to changes in the economic situation and prepare to adjust monetary policy in a timely manner based on risks.
When assessing its monetary policy stance, the Federal Reserve stated that it would comprehensively consider various factors including labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and expectations, and international financial developments. The latest data shows that the year-on-year increase in CPI in the United States from July to September has gradually declined, recording 2.9%, 2.6% and 2.4% respectively, indicating that inflation is steadily moving towards the target value. Based on this, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will continue to adopt a prudent interest rate cut strategy in the future. It may cut by 25 basis points after each FOMC meeting. It is expected that there is a greater possibility of another interest rate cut in December. At this pace, the U.S. federal funds rate is expected to drop to around 3% before the end of next year, injecting more liquidity into global markets and indicating that a bull market may come.