On July 31, 2023, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Manager Index. Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this.
In July, the purchasing managers' index of the manufacturing industry was 49.3%, up 0.3% from the previous month; the index of non-manufacturing business activity and the composite PMI output index were 51.5% and 51.1% respectively, both in the expansion range for seven consecutive months, and China's economy continued to recover. From the perspective of market expectations, the manufacturing production and operation activity expectation index and the non-manufacturing business activity expectation index are 55.1% and 59.0% respectively, both of which are in a relatively high prosperity range, and corporate confidence is generally stable.
Manufacturing purchasing managers' index continued to pick up in July. Manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly for two consecutive months. 10 of the 21 industries surveyed were in the expansion range, an increase of 2 over the previous month, and the overall level of manufacturing sentiment continued to improve.
(1) the production index keeps expanding. The production index was 50.2%, which was basically the same as that of the previous month and remained in the range of expansion, while the index of new orders was 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of the manufacturing industry were stable and the market demand boom had improved. From the perspective of the industry, the production index and new order index of oil, coal and other fuel processing, chemical fiber and rubber and plastic products, special equipment, railway ship, aerospace equipment, computer communications and electronic equipment are higher than the critical point, and production and demand expand synchronously.
(2) the price index continued to pick up. The purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex-factory price index were 52.4% and 48.6% respectively, up 7.4% and 4.7% over the previous month, of which the purchase price index of major raw materials rose to the expansion range, and the overall price level of raw materials for manufacturing production increased. From the perspective of the industry, the purchase price index of major raw materials in agricultural and non-staple food processing, oil, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and Calendering processing rose to more than 60.0%, and the purchase prices of some raw materials increased significantly.
(3) the prosperity level of small enterprises has improved. The PMI of large enterprises is 50.3%, which is the same as last month, and continues to be in the expansion range, which plays a significant role in supporting the manufacturing industry as a whole. The production index of large enterprises and the index of new orders are in the expansion range for seven consecutive months and three months respectively, and production and demand keep growing. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 49.0%, up 0.1% from the previous month, while the PMI of small enterprises was 47.4%, up 1.0% from the previous month.
(4) the expected index has risen to a higher range of prosperity. The expected index of production and business activities was 55.1%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that with the introduction of a series of policies such as promoting the development and growth of the private economy, expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, the positive factors of market development have been increasing, and business confidence has been enhanced. In particular, the expected index of production and business activities in the consumer goods industry has been higher than 55.0% since the beginning of this year, rising to 58.0% this month. Enterprises are expecting better development of the industry in the near future.
Globally, the initial PMI of manufacturing in the United States and the euro zone in July was 49.0% and 42.7% respectively, which continued to be below the critical point, while manufacturing in major economic systems such as Europe and the United States continued to contract. Although China's manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.3% this month, some companies in the survey reported that the current complex and grim external environment, a decline in overseas orders and insufficient demand are still the main difficulties faced by enterprises.
Second, the non-manufacturing business activity index is still in the expansion range. In July, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.5%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the non-manufacturing sector continued to expand.
(1) the service industry continues to resume its development trend. The service industry business activity index was 51.5%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and is still in the expansion range. The total business volume of the service industry continues to grow, but the growth rate has slowed. From the perspective of the industry, driven by summer consumption, residents' leisure consumption and tourism travel have increased. The business activity indexes of railway transport, air transport, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and public facilities management, culture, sports and entertainment are all in a high boom range above 55.0%, and the market activity has increased significantly. The new momentum of the service industry continued to release, the business activity index of telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services and other industries were all higher than 60.0%, the business activities of enterprises were accelerated, and the total business volume continued to expand. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities is 58.7%, maintaining a high level of operation. Among the 21 industries surveyed, except for the real estate industry, the expected index of business activities in other industries is in the boom range, and the confidence of enterprises in the service industry is relatively stable.
(2) the construction industry has maintained its expansion. The business activity index of the construction industry was 51.2%, down 4.5 percentage points from the previous month, still in the expansion range, indicating that the construction progress of the construction industry has slowed recently due to adverse factors such as high temperature and heavy rain. According to market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 60.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that although the level of prosperity in the construction industry has declined, most enterprises are still optimistic about the development of the construction industry.
III. The composite PMI output index continues to expand.
In July, the composite PMI output index was 51.1 per cent, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month and still in the expansion range, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises as a whole continue to expand. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that make up the composite PMI output index are 50.2 per cent and 51.5 per cent respectively.
