Gasoline: Terminal demand falls and gasoline prices continue to decline
1.Gasoline price index
cut-offOn October 18, China's 92 #gasoline price index was 8707.87, down 163.64 from May 4; China's 95 #gasoline price index was 900.01, down 164.17 from May 4. Both the 92 #gasoline index and the 95 #gasoline index were lowered, and the price difference between the 92 #gasoline index and the 95 #gasoline index was 292.14.
2. Market review:
Entering October, the demand side was supported by the National Day holiday, and the superimposed cost side was increased for several consecutive days. China's gasoline market was generally okay, and the trading atmosphere returned to warmer. However, after the holiday, the working day resumed, and demand quickly fell back and returned to dullness, mainly used for daily travel. Most of the industry operators hold a bearish mentality, tend to be cautious in purchasing, the overall market continues to operate weak, the wait-and-see attitude intensifies, and the overall price continues to decline. As of now, compared with October 8, the main wholesale prices of gasoline in various regions of China have been lowered, concentrated at 185-600 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of local refining also fell, concentrated at 40-450 yuan/ton.
3. Gasoline Price Index
3. Influencing factors:
Supply:Post-holiday refineryBoth equipment shutdown and maintenance and resumption of production have been started. With mutual hedging, capacity utilization is expected to decline and supply will decrease.
Demand side:There is no holiday support in the near future, and the travel radius of private cars is limited. However, as the temperature turns cooler, the frequency of use of car air conditioners increases, and gasoline consumption may increase. However, China's demand is currently weak, and there are no obvious positive factors to improve. The demand side is limited, making it difficult to support the upward trend of oil prices.
In terms of international crude oil:Recently, international oil prices have generally shown a downward trend, and average prices have also fallen. As of October 17, the WTI price was US$70.67/barrel, down 3.94% from October 8; the Brent price was US$74.45/barrel, down 3.54% from October 8. Currently,The geopolitical situation will continue to easeThe weak demand situation is unlikely to improve significantly in the near future, and negative factors once again dominate. It is expected that there will still be room for subsequent downward adjustment of international crude oil.
Overall, the situation of strong supply and weak supply is difficult to improve in the short term, and we will continue to pay attention to the trend of the market outlook!
