Polyester: Short-term driving forces weaken, focusing on costs and policy-side disturbances
Recently, China's polyester industry market is basically macro-and cost-driven. At the end of September, China's fiscal policy was issued intensively, macro-control efforts were strengthened, the policy shift greatly boosted market expectations, and the commodity market strengthened sharply, driving the polyester industry market to rebound at the bottom. During the long National Day holiday, the geo-conflict in the Middle East intensified, international oil prices rose sharply, the cost side was driven, and the polyester market rose again. To the 8th, the spot market of PTA rose as high as 5345 yuan / ton, and the East China ethylene glycol market rose as high as 4875 yuan / ton. But it will take time for the market fundamentals to improve. In the short term, after the end of the market rally driven by policy expectations, the verification from fundamentals becomes the key to whether the market can be continuously driven.
On the 9th, tensions between Israel and Iran reduced the possibility of oil supply disruption, coupled with the US Energy Information Administration downgraded its oil demand growth forecast for next year and lowered its oil price forecast, resulting in a sharp drop in international oil prices. Recently, the risk of conflict between Iran and Israel has declined, the situation in the Middle East has once again shown signs of easing, and the support for crude oil prices has weakened. At the same time, market attention shifted to the demand side, OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecast for the third month in a row, and continued concerns about the demand outlook offset the impact of tensions in the Middle East, which continued to put pressure on oil prices. International crude oil futures prices may have room to fall. Under the pressure of the decline in the cost end, the market of the polyester industry has weakened again. So far, the PTA spot market has fallen to 5045 yuan / ton, down 5.61% from the previous high, and the East China ethylene glycol market has fallen to 4745 yuan / ton, down 2.67%.
From the point of view of the supply and demand of the polyester industry, the current polyester industry upstream and downstream maintain a high supply. Recently, PTA enterprise equipment maintenance is limited, PTA enterprise starts to maintain more than 80% of the level, the spot supply in the market is sufficient, PTA is in the accumulation cycle. A 2.5 million-ton PTA plant in Hengli Huizhou was overhauled from October 13 to October 24. The 1.2 million-ton PTA plant in Zhongtai, Xinjiang was shut down on October 6th, and the restart time has yet to be determined.
Recently, with the restoration of several sets of maintenance equipment, the overall start-up of ethylene glycol in the industry has maintained more than 60%. Coupled with the planned start-up of new production capacity, the market supply has increased. At present, the 200000-ton ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi Yangshan Coal Mine has been discharged and the load is increasing. The device stopped in early August for some reason. The 300000-ton ethylene glycol plant in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia was restarted in mid-October and stopped in mid-September. The 200000-ton ethylene glycol plant in Puyang, Henan Province was shut down on October 19, 2023 due to efficiency problems, and was restarted during the National Day period. The 200000-ton ethylene glycol plant in North China was shut down and overhauled on July 10th and restarted in early October. The 450000-ton ethylene glycol plant of far East Union began to be shut down and overhauled on October 9th and is expected to restart in early November. A 400000 t / an ethylene glycol plant from syngas in Xinjiang was restarted in early October. Xinjiang Tianye 600000 ton ethylene glycol plant was shut down and overhauled for about one month at the end of September.
From the demand side, the recent start-up of downstream polyester enterprises has rebounded to near 90%, which is at a high level in the same period in history. After the active replenishment of the pre-terminal, the inventory level of polyester enterprises is low and the sales pressure is not great. With the support of the terminal textile and weaving industry in the peak season, the weaving turn-on rate continues to rise, and the local volume of grey cloth increases. At present, the weaving start-up load is around 83%, and the texturing enterprise start-up load is around 93%, all of which are at a high level over the years. The demand side forms support to the market.
Overall, the current polyester industry market fundamentals are not contradictory, the market supply remains high, while the lack of continuous improvement in terminal demand, coupled with the downstream speculative replenishment demand has slowed down, so the supply and demand side to the market drive is weakened. Under the influence of international crude oil and policy, short-term polyester disk is greatly affected by changes in macro mood, so it is recommended to follow up carefully.
